by Joe Fortenbaugh
October 18, 02013
I’m lucky enough to have the pleasure of enjoying the great state of Montana this weekend (wedding). Unfortunately, this place is like traveling back in time to the 1850s, which means crap cell service and a shoddy internet connection. That being said, we’re going to scrap this Sunday’s live chat in favor of the old email/twitter trick. Hit me up @JoeFortenbaugh on twitter or at Joe.Fortenbaugh@NationalFootballPost.com with any questions you may have for Week 7 and I’ll do my best to answer all of them.
Thanks for your understanding.
WEEK 7 SURVIVOR PICK
Last week: San Francisco 49ers over Arizona Cardinals (won)
Plan B: Kansas City Chiefs over Houston Texans (won)
Already played: Indianapolis Colts (WK 1), Baltimore Ravens (WK 2), Seattle Seahawks (WK 3), Denver Broncos (WK 4), Atlanta Falcons (WK 5, loss), San Francisco 49ers (WK 6).
This week: GREEN BAY PACKERS over Cleveland Browns
Plan B: MIAMI DOLPHINS over Buffalo Bills
Why: The Packers are 24-2 at home since 2010, winning by an average of 15.19 points per game. During that same stretch, the Browns have gone 5-21 on the road, losing by an average of 5.6 points per game. What more do you need?
MISFIRE OF THE WEEK
Last week: Baltimore Ravens (+3) over Green Bay Packers (won)
PICK: DETROIT LIONS (-2.5) over Cincinnati Bengals
Analysis: The Lions return to Detroit this Sunday for just their second home game in the last six weeks. Jim Schwartz’s crew is already 2-0 both straight-up and against the spread at Ford Field this season, while Cincinnati is 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS on the road in 2013. This is the second-leg of back-to-back road trips for the Bengals and it just so happens to feature a date with a non-conference opponent. Did anybody happen to see Cincinnati piss away a 14-point fourth quarter lead at Buffalo last Sunday? Yeah, this team is good, but they’re not great. Go Lions.
LVH SUPERCONTEST SELECTIONS
Last week: 2-3
ARIZONA CARDINALS (+6.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks (Thanks, Carson!)
DETROIT LIONS (-2.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-4) at Tennessee Titans
CAROLINA PANTHERS (-6) vs. St. Louis Rams
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-6.5) vs. Houston Texans
CLICK HERE to check out all of the current Week 7 lines.
START ‘EM UP
Nick Foles, QB, Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Dallas): Through four appearances, Napoleon Dynamite has a QB rating of 127.9, which includes a stat line featuring five touchdowns and zero interceptions over the last two weeks. So not only is this guy playing razor sharp football, but he’s got a Week 7 date with a Dallas Cowboys defense that is surrendering more fantasy points to opposing signal-callers than any other team in the league (27.9 pts/gm). Michael Vick’s inability to stay healthy is going to cost him the starting job in Philly once Foles gets done with Dallas on Sunday.
This is the week that Williams finds the end zone.
DeAngelo Williams, RB, Carolina Panthers (vs. St. Louis): Has yet to find the end zone and is averaging only 78.8 rushing yards per game on the season, but Williams has a very favorable matchup this Sunday against a St. Louis defense that currently ranks 30th in the NFL against the run (130.5 yds/gm) while surrendering an average of 24.0 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs (third-most in NFL). Consider the Carolina ball-carrier a solid RB2 for owners in leagues with ten or more teams.
Mike Wallace, WR, Miami Dolphins (vs. Buffalo): Rested and refreshed coming off a much-needed bye week, Wallace is in line for a big performance in Week 7 against a shoddy Buffalo secondary that currently ranks 22nd in the NFL against the pass (270.8 yds/gm) while giving up an average of 33.3 fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts this season (second-most in NFL).
C.J. Spiller, RB, Buffalo Bills (at Miami): No team in the league has given up more fantasy points to opposing running backs this season than the Miami Dolphins (24.1 pts/gm). Spiller has been a total disappointment through the first six weeks of the 2013 campaign, but this is as good a spot as any to ride with him in the starting lineup.
Terrance Williams, WR, Dallas Cowboys (at Philadelphia): Has found the end zone in each of his last two appearances and takes on a Swiss cheese Philly defense Sunday that currently ranks 31st in the league against the pass (314.5 yds/gm) while giving up more fantasy points to opposing wide receivers than any other team in the league (35.4 pts/gm). We consider Williams a solid WR2/3 for owners in leagues with ten or more teams.
Kyle Rudolph, TE, Minnesota Vikings (at NY Giants): Busted loose last week with a 9-97-1 stat line on 11 targets in a 35-10 loss to the Panthers. Travels to New York this week to face an awful Giants defense that is permitting an average of 12.0 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season (sixth-most in NFL).
Miami Dolphins, D/ST (vs. Buffalo): Good spot for Miami (home game off the bye), tough breaks for Buffalo (Thad Lewis expected to start at QB). There’s a good reason why Miami is currently a 7.5-point favorite over the Bills this weekend.
SIT ‘EM DOWN
Colin Kaepernick, QB, San Francisco 49ers (at Tennessee): The third-year signal-caller out of Nevada is completing just 55.9 percent of his passes on the season with only eight touchdowns through six starts. To make matters worse, Kaepernick’s two away games have generated a QB rating of just 60.4 with only two touchdown tosses and three interceptions. This is a long travel distance against a non-conference opponent in Tennessee, who ranks tenth in the league in pass defense (223.8 yds/gm) while surrendering an average of just 16.0 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks (fifth-fewest in NFL).
Le’Veon Bell, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Baltimore): Is averaging just 2.8 yards per carry on the season and is in for a physical slugfest Sunday afternoon against a Baltimore defense that currently ranks eighth in the NFL against the run (98.2 yds/gm) while surrendering fewer fantasy points to opposing running backs than any other team in the business (10.9 pts/gm).
The Chiefs are cooking despite little production from Dwayne Bowe.
Dwayne Bowe, WR, Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Houston): The Chiefs are off to a surprising 6-0 start, but this team is doing it on the backs of one of the nastiest defenses in the NFL. As for Bowe, the Chiefs’ top receiving threat hasn’t found the end zone in three weeks and has yet to eclipse 60 receiving yards in a game this season. And for as crappy as the Texans have looked so far in 2013, the defense is still giving up fewer fantasy points to opposing wide receivers than any other team in the league (12.7 pts/gm).
All New England Patriot running backs (at NY Jets): A complete and utter mess from a fantasy perspective, the New England ground game is as unpredictable as a United Airlines flight schedule. Pass on all of these guys in Week 7 when New England travels to New York for a divisional showdown with a Jets defense that is giving up an average of just 12.5 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs this season (t-second-fewest in NFL).
Stevie Johnson, WR, Buffalo Bills (at Miami): Hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 2, is smack dab in the middle of an unreliable quarterback situation and faces a Miami secondary in Week 7 that is giving up an average of only 16.4 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers this season (sixth-fewest in NFL).
Garrett Graham, TE, Houston Texans (at Kansas City): Between the fact that the unproven Case Keenum is staring at quarterback for the Texans on Sunday coupled with the information that Kansas City is surrendering fewer fantasy points to opposing tight ends than any other team in the league this season (2.8 pts/gm), this is a pass all the way around.
Cincinnati Bengals, D/ST (at Detroit): We hate the spot for Cincinnati (second leg of back-to-back road games against a non-conference opponent), especially considering the fact that these guys just gave up 24 points to Thad Lewis and the Buffalo Bills last Sunday.
Hit me up on Twitter: @JoeFortenbaugh