by Joe Fortenbaugh
November 30, 02012
For some of you, the fantasy postseason has finally arrived. For others, this week could mean the difference between a chance to play for some cash or another offseason filled with regret. Either way, come join us in the GameDay live chat on Sunday, which kicks off at 10:30am eastern. Free bloody marys!!
FADE OF THE WEEK (Season: 4-8)
Last week: SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (+1) vs. Baltimore Ravens (loss)
If you’ve been fading these picks as advised, you’ve been making money. Who do we have in store for Week 13?
DENVER BRONCOS (-7.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: I love this game so much that there’s really only one way it can play out: Denver wins a close one, failing to cover in the process.
LVH SUPERCONTEST SELECTIONS
Here we go again!
DENVER BRONCOS (-7.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
ST. LOUIS RAMS (+7) vs. San Francisco 49ers
CINCINNATI BENGALS (-1.5) at San Diego Chargers
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-7.5) at Miami Dolphins
WASHINGTON REDSKINS (+2.5) vs. New York Giants
CLICK HERE to check out all of the current lines.
FANDUEL WEEK 13 SALARY CAP CHALLENGE
Once again, this league is filling up fast. $2k in prizes and only 212 total contestants. Plus, I’ve been dead money in these leagues almost every week. So you can already rule me out for a spot in the top-ten.
CLICK HERE to enter.
START ‘EM UP
Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants (at Redskins): After a five-game stretch that saw Manning throw just two touchdown passes with six interceptions, the Big Blue signal-caller broke out of his funk last Sunday with a 249-yard, three-touchdown effort against the Green Bay Packers. This is the time of year when the Giants start cooking with gas, so we are anticipating another solid performance Monday night against a Washington defense that currently ranks 31st in the league against the pass (301.4 yds/gm) while surrendering an average of 23.4 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season (second-most in NFL).
ICONSpiller has had trouble finding the end zone, but he's definitely been rolling up the yardage.
C.J. Spiller, RB, Buffalo Bills (vs. Jaguars): He hasn’t found the end zone since October 14, but Spiller has carried the ball 36 times for 198 yards over his last two outings and would be on the verge of fantasy greatness if the Bills could find a way to get him the rock inside of the red zone. Week 13 offers up another favorable matchup as the Jacksonville Jaguars come to town with the league’s 29th-ranked run defense (136.0 yds/gm). In addition, take note that the Jags are giving up an average of 23.0 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs this season (fourth-most in NFL). We can only hope that head coach Chan Gailey is looking at the same stats we are as he prepares for Sunday.
Eric Decker, WR, Denver Broncos (vs. Buccaneers): Decker has found the end zone in six of his last eight starts and has already set single-season career highs for receptions (54) and receiving yards (685) through just 11 games. Ride him again this week against a Buccaneers defense that currently ranks dead last in the NFL against the pass (315.5 yds/gm) while giving up an average of 28.4 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers (second-most in NFL).
Beanie Wells, RB, Arizona Cardinals (at Jets): Wells returned to the gridiron in a big way last Sunday as the former Ohio State Buckeye found the end zone twice on 17 carries in a 31-17 loss to the St. Louis Rams. And while his yards per attempt average worries us a bit (2.8 YPA in Week 12), Wells has a very favorable showdown on Sunday against a Jets defense that ranks 30th in the league against the run (142.8 yds/gm) while surrendering an average of 21.9 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs (sixth-most in NFL). Consider Wells a solid flex option for Week 13.
Pierre Garcon, WR, Washington Redskins (vs. Giants): He was only on the field for approximately half of the offensive snaps last week against the Cowboys, but Garcon made the most of his time, catching four passes on six targets for 86 yards and a score. We like him as a WR3 in Week 13 against a Giants defense that ranks 25th in the NFL against the pass (252.6 yds/gm) and is surrendering an average of 26.1 fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts (third-most in NFL).
Owen Daniels, TE, Houston Texans (at Titans): Daniels has scored a touchdown in six of his last eight starts, including one in his six-catch, 72-yard effort against this same Tennessee Titans team back on September 30. The Titans are giving up an average of 9.9 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season (fourth-most in NFL), so make sure that Daniels is locked and loaded into the starting rotation in Week 13. He’s got one of the best matchups on the board.
Dallas Cowboys, D/ST (vs. Eagles): Philadelphia is averaging just 16.7 points per game this season and is currently surrendering an average of 13.8 fantasy points per game to opposing D/STs (second-most in NFL). The last time these two teams got together, the Eagles committed two turnovers, two sacks and gave up three D/ST touchdowns. Yeah, we like Dallas a lot on Sunday.
SIT ‘EM DOWN
Josh Freeman, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at Broncos): Freeman is currently a top-13 fantasy quarterback, but he put up a dud in Week 12 against the Falcons and now has to travel across the country to play an unfamiliar opponent in the Denver Broncos. This is bad news, as the Broncos rank fifth in the NFL against the pass (209.6 yds/gm) and are giving up an average of just 17.7 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season (11th-fewest in NFL). We think the Broncos roll in this one.
Seattle's workhorse back is in for an extremely physical showdown on Sunday.
Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seattle Seahawks (at Bears): Lynch had has streak of four-straight 100-yard efforts snapped last Sunday at Miami (19-46-0) and now faces a Week 13 matchup with a Chicago Bears defense that ranks eighth in the league against the run (96.9 yds/gm). The Seahawks are averaging just 16.0 points per game on the road this season (1-5 record) and when you throw in the fact that the Bears are surrendering an average of just 12.9 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs this season (third-fewest in NFL), we get the idea that Lynch could be in for a long afternoon at Soldier Field.
Mike Wallace, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (at Ravens): Over his last three starts, Wallace has caught just eight passes for 47 yards with one touchdown. Granted, it’s not necessarily the four-year veteran’s fault, as the Steelers have suffered a litany of injuries at the quarterback position as of late. But with Charlie Batch under center against the Baltimore Ravens, we feel that starting Wallace offers very little upside this Sunday.
Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears (vs. Seahawks): Forte suffered an ankle injury in Week 12 against the Vikings and will be at less than 100% on Sunday if he’s able to play. So what do you get when you take a guy who has rushed for only 144 yards and zero touchdowns over his last three games and combine it with a showdown against a defense that is giving up an average of just 15.0 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs this season (seventh-fewest in NFL)? In our estimation, you get a guy you should leave on the bench in Week 13.
Torrey Smith, WR, Baltimore Ravens (vs. Steelers): Prior to his 144-yard effort against the Chargers last Sunday, Smith hadn’t posted more than 67 receiving yards in a game in six consecutive starts. And with the NFL’s top-ranked passing defense in the form of the Pittsburgh Steelers coming to town on Sunday night (165.7 yds/gm), we feel it’s better to look for a wideout with more upside this weekend.
Brandon Myers, TE, Oakland Raiders (vs. Browns): Myers has quietly put together a solid season that currently sees him ranked 11th in fantasy scoring at the tight end position. But take note that the four-year veteran has a date with a Cleveland Browns defense this Sunday that has surrendered fewer fantasy points to opposing tight ends than any other team in the league this year (5.3 pts/gm).
New York Giants, D/ST (at Redskins): Big Blue currently ranks ninth in fantasy scoring at the D/ST position, but we advise looking for another option in Week 13. The Redskins rank seventh in the NFL in total offense (384.9 yds/gm) and are scoring an average of 26.8 points per game. Not only that, but Vegas has this total posted at 51 points for a reason.
Hit me up on Twitter: @JoeFortenbaugh