by Joe Fortenbaugh
November 23, 02012
The GameDay live chat returns this Sunday at 10:30am eastern and runs for one full hour. We’ll be talking Starts & Sits, injury updates, weather reports, point spreads and Thanksgiving leftovers.
FADE OF THE WEEK (Season: 4-7)
Last week: DETROIT LIONS (+3.5) vs. Green Bay Packers (loss)
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (+1) vs. Baltimore Ravens: This isn’t so much a pick on San Diego as it is a pick against Baltimore. The Ravens are 3-2 on the road this season while scoring an average of just 16.6 points per game. In addition, quarterback Joe Flacco has a road QB rating of 65.2 with just three touchdowns and four interceptions.
LVH SUPERCONTEST SELECTIONS
Another 3-2 effort last weekend means that we’ve now gone 3-2 or worse in 11 consecutive weeks. Just once I would like to post a 4-1 or 5-0 mark. Is that asking too much? Probably.
CINCINNATI BENGALS (-8) vs. Oakland Raiders
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (+1) vs. Atlanta Falcons
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (+1) vs. Baltimore Ravens
TENNESSEE TITANS (-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars
BUFFALO BILLS (+3) at Indianapolis Colts
CLICK HERE to check out all of the current lines.
FANDUEL WEEK 12 SALARY CAP CHALLENGE
This week’s league is filling up fast, so I suggest jumping in sooner rather than later. There are only 212 total spots, but a fat $2k prize pool.
CLICK HERE to enter.
START ‘EM UP
Andy Dalton, QB, Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Raiders): Dalton’s thrown six touchdown passes over his last two starts (both Cincinnati wins) with zero interceptions, after getting picked off at least once in each of his first eight outings of the season. This kid is coming around and now’s the time to get him into the starting rotation, as the Bengals play host to an Oakland Raiders team this weekend that currently ranks 24th in the league against the pass (253.2 yds/gm) while surrendering an average of 22.8 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks (fourth-most in NFL).
Ronnie Hillman, RB, Denver Broncos (at Chiefs): Our No. 1 waiver wire pickup for Week 12, the rookie from San Diego State is in for a sizeable workload this Sunday against a Kansas City defense that currently ranks 25th in the league against the run (129.2 yds/gm) while surrendering an average of 20.6 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs this season (seventh-most in NFL). Hillman makes for a perfect RB2 or flex option in Week 12.
Stevie Johnson has a great opportunity to bust loose this Sunday at Indy.
Stevie Johnson, WR, Buffalo Bills (at Colts): After a relatively hot start to the season, Johnson has scored just one touchdown over his last seven starts. But we think he’s in line for a breakout performance this Sunday against an Indianapolis Colts defense that currently ranks 20th in the league against the pass (240.3 yds/gm) while giving up an average of 27.1 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers this season (fourth-most in NFL). The Bills come into this showdown on extra rest, so there are no excuses for a poor offensive performance.
Vick Ballard, RB, Indianapolis Colts (vs. Bills): Ballard’s averaging 15.2 carries per game over his last five starts, but has yet to find the end zone via the ground game this season. However, he’s also yet to face the team that is giving up the most fantasy points to opposing running backs in the NFL this year. The Bills rank 31st in the league against the run (153.3 yds/gm) while surrendering an average of 25.7 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, so if there was ever a time for Ballard to go nuclear, this week is it.
James Jones, WR, Green Bay Packers (at Giants): Vegas currently has the Packers-Giants total posted at 51 points, meaning the bookmakers expect to see some fireworks in this one. We like Jones in Week 12 because Big Blue ranks 25th in the league against the pass (257.8 yds/gm) and is giving up an average of 26.9 fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts this season (fifth-most in NFL). This is a great matchup with a plethora of upside.
Jermaine Gresham, TE, Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Raiders): Gresham’s averaging 7.6 fantasy points per game over his last three starts (standard scoring) and has a very favorable showdown this Sunday with an Oakland Raiders defense that is giving up an average of 8.7 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends in 2012 (seventh-most in NFL).
Carolina Panthers, D/ST (at Eagles): This may be a roll of the dice, but when you look at their Week 12 opponent and notice that the Eagles rank 31st in the league in scoring offense (16.2 pts/gm), you’ll realize that these guys should be able to deliver in a pinch on Monday night.
SIT ‘EM DOWN
Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego Chargers (vs. Ravens): We like the Chargers to win this game, but don’t think it will be because Rivers has a monster outing. On the season, the Ravens are surrendering an average of just 17.0 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks (sixth-fewest in NFL). In addition, Baltimore’s defense is allowing just 19.6 points per game on the road in 2012, so we think this matchup could be a low scoring affair.
T-Rich has been handling a monster workload, but runs into a brick wall this weekend known as the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Trent Richardson, RB, Cleveland Browns (vs. Steelers): T-Rich has been an absolute workhorse as of late, carrying the rock 77 times over his last three starts. But the rookie from Alabama has yet to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers this season, who currently rank fifth in the league against the run (89.8 yds/gm) while giving up an average of just 13.8 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs (t-fourth-fewest in NFL). This is a brutal matchup.
DeSean Jackson & Jeremy Maclin, WRs, Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Panthers): The Eagles have officially quit on the season, so we see no reason to waste anymore time thinking these guys will ever live up to the hype. The Birds currently rank 31st in the NFL in scoring offense (16.2 pts/gm) and Jackson and Maclin have combined to score only six touchdowns in 19 starts. Throw in the fact that Carolina is surrendering an average of just 18.8 fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts this season (fifth-fewest in NFL) and we’ll take a pass for players on a team that actually wants to win.
Steven Jackson, RB, St. Louis Rams (at Cardinals): Through ten games, Jackson has just one 100-yard effort to his name with only two touchdowns. We don’t expect the veteran ball-carrier to improve on those numbers much this Sunday against an Arizona Cardinals defense that is giving up an average of just 15.6 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs this season (eighth-fewest in NFL).
Percy Harvin, WR, Minnesota Vikings (at Bears): It doesn’t look good for Harvin to start this Sunday against the Bears, but even if he’s able to go, keep in mind that Chicago ranks fourth in the league against the pass (311.9 yds/gm) and is surrendering an average of just 18.9 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers this season (t-sixth-fewest in NFL).
Heath Miller, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers (at Browns): Miller has only caught ten passes over his last three starts and hasn’t scored a touchdown since October 28. In addition, the Browns have actually done a nice job this season of limiting opposing tight ends, surrendering an average of just 5.2 fantasy points per game to the position (fewest in NFL). We’d look in another direction for Week 12.
Atlanta Falcons, D/ST (at Buccaneers): The Buccaneers have been cooking with gas as of late, winning four straight contests and putting up an average of 28.7 points per game on the season. In addition, opposing D/STs are scoring an average of just 6.2 fantasy points per game against Tampa this year (third-fewest in NFL), so we think you’d be better off sitting the Falcons on Sunday and playing a more favorable matchup.
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