by Joe Fortenbaugh
November 11, 02011
SUNDAY GAMEDAY LIVE CHAT
I’ll be hosting a rapid-fire fantasy live chat from 10:30am to 11:30am eastern this Sunday morning. The usual topics up for debate include Starts & Sits, injury updates, weather reports and our locks/predictions.
CLICK HERE to access the chat!
KICK MY BUTT, WIN MONEY
Think you have what it takes to beat me in a weekly game of fantasy football? Here’s your chance to find out. We’ve got a $350 prize pool and a $5 bonus if you can score more points than I do. Plus, a win over yours truly means you can talk as much trash to me via twitter as you want.
CLICK HERE to enter!
SURVIVOR SMASH: WEEK 10
The hot streak continues as we’ve somehow managed to pick a winner for four consecutive weeks. Lets roll the dice this weekend and take the Miami Dolphins, who play host to a Washington Redskins team that has dropped four straight contests while averaging 11.0 points per game in the process.
POINT SPREAD SMASH OF THE WEEK
Current Record: 5-3 (no pick in Week 2)
Last week’s selection: San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) at Washington Redskins: WIN
NEW YORK GIANTS (+3.5) at San Francisco 49ers: The Giants have won six of their last seven games, are playing outstanding defense and have a quarterback who is in the process of putting together the best season of his eight-year career. 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh has done a fantastic job with this football team, but if Frank Gore doesn’t run wild, Alex Smith and co. will have a tough time scoring.
CLICK HERE to check out the rest of the Week 10 lines.
START ‘EM UP
Tony Romo, QB, Dallas Cowboys (vs. Buffalo): Romo’s numbers haven’t been outstanding, but he’s only thrown one interception over his last three starts and is averaging 279.8 passing yards per game through nine weeks. We’ll take that and will also bank on a big Week 10 performance against a Buffalo Bills defense that currently ranks 25th in the NFL in pass defense (260.4 yds/gm) and is surrendering an average of 20.0 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks (11th-most in NFL).
The line: Dallas -5/48
Vegas notes: The Bills are 0-4 against the spread in their last four games after suffering a double-digit loss at home, while the Cowboys are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games against a team with a winning record.
The pick: Cowboys -5
ICONIs it too much to ask for back-to-back respectable performances from Chris Johnson?
Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee Titans (at Carolina): I threw in the towel on CJ0K a few weeks ago, but after analyzing this week’s matchup and taking into account the 110 total yards he posted in Week 9 against a tough Cincinnati defense, I’m back for one more spin. Yes, Johnson has been a bust this season, but he’s got a date with a Carolina defense on Sunday that currently ranks 28th in the NFL against the run (133.2 yds/gm) and is giving up more fantasy points to opposing running backs than any other team in the league (26.2 pts/gm). Come on, Johnson. Bust out and give us something to cheer about!
The line: Carolina -3.5/46
Vegas notes: The Titans are just 2-3 against the spread since losing wide receiver Kenny Britt, while the Panthers are 5-3 against the spread in eight games this season.
The pick: The hook could prove deadly, but I still like Newton and the Panthers in this spot.
Plaxico Burress, WR, New York Jets (vs. New England): Burress has yet to post more than 80 receiving yards in a game this season, but after watching the busted toilet that is the New England secondary, how can you not like his chances for a monster performance in Week 10? The Patriots currently rank dead last in the NFL in pass defense (314.0 yds/gm) and are giving up more fantasy points to opposing wide receivers than any other team in the NFL, save the Denver Broncos. As long as quarterback Mark Sanchez can avoid putting together a disastrous performance, Burress will produce on Sunday.
The line: NY Jets -1.5/47.5
Vegas notes: The home team is 5-1 against the spread in the last six meetings between these two teams.
The pick: J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets! (-1.5)
Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Detroit Lions (at Chicago): Pettigrew hasn’t busted out the way we thought he would this season, but he’s still a respectable play in Week 10 against a Chicago defense that is surrendering more fantasy points to opposing tight ends than any other team in the league (11.5 pts/gm). Remember, the last time these two teams got together back in Week 5, Pettigrew caught four passes for 39 yards and a touchdown.
The line: Chicago -2.5/45
Vegas notes: The Lions are 6-20-1 against the spread in their last 27 November games, while the Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a favorite.
The pick: I know many of you will disagree, but I like the Bears -2.5 in this spot.
Cleveland Browns, D/ST (vs. St. Louis): Just naming someone who starts for this defense is hard enough, but putting them in your staring lineup for Week 10? I understand your apprehension, but just remember that: A) The Rams are scoring an average of only 12.5 points per game this season (31st in NFL), B) defenses playing the Rams are scoring more fantasy points per game than any other D/ST in the league (13.5 pts/gm) and C) The Browns are giving up just 21.2 points per game in 2011 (12th in NFL). Doesn’t sound so crazy anymore, does it?
The line: Cleveland -3/37
Vegas notes: The Rams are 0-6 against the spread in their last six road games, while the Browns are 2-12-2 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
The pick: With so much talent to choose from, I’ll take the Rams, the points and a remote control, so I don’t get stuck watching this game.
Will Cassel stick it to Fortenbaugh for the second straight week?
Matt Cassel, QB, Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Denver): Cassel was on this list last week and proved to be an utter disappointment as his team got pimp-slapped 31-3 at home by the previously winless Miami Dolphins. Should I have learned my lesson? Probably. But I’m willing to roll the dice on just about any quarterback who plays the Denver Broncos, as the team currently ranks 23rd in the NFL in pass defense (258.0 yds/gm) and is surrendering more fantasy per game to opposing quarterbacks than any other team in the league (25.0 pts/gm). Come on, Cassel. Go out and earn that $63 million contract.
The line: Kansas City -3/41
Vegas notes: The road team is 4-1 against the spread in the last five games between these two teams. So much for home field advantage.
The pick: There’s nothing about this game that I like, so I’m going to pass. With a gun to my head, I’ll take Tebow and the points.
Willis McGahee, RB, Denver Broncos (at Kansas City): Hey-O! McGahee returned from a brief injury hiatus last week to torch the Oakland Raiders for 163 yards and two touchdowns on just 20 carries. For those of you scoring at home, the former Miami Hurricane has now topped 100 rushing yards in three of his last four starts. Ride the lightning Sunday in Kansas City, as McGahee takes on a Chiefs defense that ranks 18th in the NFL against the run (120.2 yds/gm) and is giving up an average of 21.7 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs this season (7th-most in NFL).
The line: Kansas City -3/41
Vegas notes: The OVER is 8-2 in the last ten meetings between these two teams in Kansas City.
The pick: Like I mentioned above, I’ll take Tebow and the points with a gun to my head.
Jeremy Maclin, WR, Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Arizona): Maclin has posted 54 or more receiving yards in each of his last seven starts, so you know he’ll get you something. In addition, the former Missouri standout has found the end zone in two of his last four games, meaning there’s a chance he could give you a solid fantasy total should quarterback Michael Vick get him the football. Now that we’re cooking with gas, we might as well mention that the Arizona Cardinals currently rank 29th in the NFL in pass defense (272.0 yds/gm) and are surrendering an average of 25.8 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers this season (6th-most in NFL). All of that adds up to a good start in our opinion.
The line: Currently off the board
Vegas notes: The Cardinals are 4-11 against the spread in their last 15 road games while the Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last five games against a team with a losing record.
The pick: The public will LOVE the Eagles once this game hits the board, but I’ll take a pass. Philly is an undisciplined football team that takes two steps backwards for every one step forwards.
Continue to page 2 to check out our Week 10 Sits!