by Tony Villiotti
February 15, 02013
This is the tenth and final article in a series about the NFL Combine. DRAFTMETRICS won’t repeat all the
introductory information from prior articles, but some degree of repetition is unavoidable. All information in this article is based on the 1999-2012 Combines.
The DRAFTMETRICS analysis includes the results of the following drills:
This article reviews the Combine results from three perspectives:
• Provide a context for Combine results by reporting historical performance
• Consider whether results of any Combine drills are meaningful predictors of future success
• Consider whether results of any Combine drills portend a low probability of success DRAFTMETRICS summarized its information by four overlapping groups of players. An individual player can be included in only one group or a many as all four. The groups are:
• All Combine participants from 1999 through 2012
• Combine participants who were drafted from 1999 through 2012
• Combine participants who started at least one season (starters start at least 8 games in a season)
• Combine participants who started at least three seasons
The following table displays the number of participants and average for each of the player groups and is
a good starting point in evaluating 2013 Combine results.
The next table shows the range of results for all players who started for at least one season.
DRAFTMETRICS offers the following observations based on its review of Safeties and their Combine results:
• The 40-yard splits are once again the biggest indicator of future success
-The 40-yard dash has the biggest advantage for starters
-62% of 3-year starters and 60% of 1-year starters ran the 40 in 4.55 seconds or faster versus 41% of all Combine participants
-The flying 20 is a close second
-58% of 3-year starters and 50% of 1-year starters ran the flying 20 in 1.96 seconds or faster compared to 36% of all Combine participants
• The 3-Cone drill is next after the speed splits
-68% of 3-year starters and 64% of 1-year starters ran the drill in 7.03 seconds or faster compared to 52% of all Combine participants
• The explosion drills (vertical and broad jump) and 20-yard shuttle had modest advantages for the starters compares to all Combine participants
• 3-year starters had worse bench press results than all Combine participants.
• A few “red flags” were noted
-Only one of the 18 Combine participants who had a vertical jump less than 31.5 inches became a starter
-Only two of the 26 Combine participants who ran the 40 in 4.71 or more seconds became 3-year starters
-None of the 30 players who ran the flying 20 in 2.02 seconds or slower became 3-year starters and only three became one-year starters
This is the final installment in the Combine Chronicle series. Two more articles (Tuesday and
Wednesday of next week), however, will be published in preparation for the Combine. Both additional articles are intended to be used as a reference while watching the Combine or reviewing results.
Tony is the founder of DRAFTMETRICS.COM can be e-mailed at firstname.lastname@example.org and followed on Twitter @draftmetrics