by Joe Fortenbaugh
November 13, 02013
Oregon’s 26-20 loss at Stanford last Thursday night has moved the Ohio State Buckeyes and Baylor Bears to Nos. 3 and 5, respectively, in the latest edition of the BCS standings. That tells us two things: First, that Ohio State and Baylor are on the outside looking in and second, that both schools need to decimate the opposition for a chance to play for the BCS Championship, assuming either Alabama or Florida State loses one of their remaining games.
With that in mind:
Through nine games, Ohio State has outscored their opponents during the first half 282-91 (21.2 pts/gm).
Through eight games, Baylor has outscored their opponents during the first half 319-49 (33.75 pts/gm).
Follow the breadcrumbs, boys and girls.
Last week: 3-2
Season: 38-24-1 (.612)
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Indiana Hoosiers (4-5, 0-2 road) at #22 Wisconsin Badgers (7-2, 5-0 home)
When: Saturday, 12:00pm ET
Open: Wisconsin -18.5
Current: Wisconsin -22
Indiana in 2013: 4-5 ATS, 8-1 to the OVER
Wisconsin in 2013: 8-0-1 ATS, 6-3 to the UNDER
US PRESSWIREWisconsin running back Melvin Gordon has amassed 1,191 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns through nine games.
Analysis: Indiana’s respectable 3-2 start hit a brick wall that resulted in three consecutive losses (at Michigan State, at Michigan, vs. Minnesota) before the Hoosiers rallied to beat a lousy Illinois team 52-35 last Saturday. But this weekend sets up very poorly for an Indiana team that is surrendering an average of 37.4 points per game (114th in NCAA) and an astounding 247.4 rushing yards per game this season. If there are two things that Wisconsin does exceptionally well (besides cover spreads, 8-0-1 ATS in 2013) its run the ball (280.6 yds/gm, tenth in NCAA) and play defense (15.2 pts/gm surrendered, sixth in NCAA). Note that the Badgers are 19-6-1 ATS over their last 26 home games while the Hoosiers are 0-4 ATS over their last four road games.
Notable Trends: Indiana is 0-4 ATS over their last four games following a straight-up win while Wisconsin is 20-8-1 ATS over their last 29 conference games.
Pick: Wisconsin (-22)
#23 Miami Hurricanes (7-2, 2-1 road) at Duke Blue Devils (7-2, 4-2 home)
When: Saturday, 3:30pm ET
Open: Miami -3
Current: Miami -3
Miami in 2013: 4-5 ATS, 5-4 to the UNDER
Duke in 2013: 7-2 ATS, 5-4 to the UNDER
Analysis: We faded the Duke Johnson-less Hurricanes last week and are coming back for seconds on Saturday when Miami travels to North Carolina to play an underrated Duke squad that has won five straight, which includes a 13-10 victory at Virginia Tech, who just stomped on Miami four days ago. The ‘Canes haven’t covered a spread in any of their last four games while the Blue Devils are a surprising 12-5 ATS over their last 17 home contests. Since Duke’s 20-7 win over Miami back in 1976, the Blue Devils have dropped nine straight to the Hurricanes. At 7-2 and already bowl eligible, expect Duke to end that drought on Saturday.
Notable Trends: Miami is 1-5 ATS over their last six games following a double-digit loss at home while Duke is 4-0 ATS over their last four games following a straight-up win.
Pick: Duke (+3)
TCU Horned Frogs (4-6, 1-3 road) at Kansas State Wildcats (5-4, 4-2 home)
When: Saturday, 3:30pm ET
Open: Kansas State -10.5
Current: Kansas State -10.5
TCU in 2013: 2-8 ATS, 6-4 to the UNDER
Kansas State in 2013: 6-3 ATS, 6-3 to the UNDER
Bill Snyder's Wildcats are 4-1 ATS over their last five home games.
Analysis: Between the injuries, suspensions and 4-6 overall record, 2013 has been a major disappointment for the Horned Frogs. Three of TCU’s four wins (Iowa State, Kansas, SMU) have come against teams who are a combined 6-20 on the season, while the other victory was notched against FCS school Southeastern Louisiana. The Horned Frogs’ six losses, however, have come by an average of 10.5 points per game. It’s also worth noting that TCU hasn’t covered the number in any of their last five games and is 1-5 ATS over their last six games against teams with a winning record. The Wildcats have won three straight, are 24-9-1 ATS over their last 34 games overall and 21-6 ATS over their last 27 games following a contest in which the team permitted more than 280 passing yards the previous week. In our opinion, this line looks short.
Notable Trends: TCU is 1-4 ATS over their last five road games while Kansas State is 4-1 ATS over their last five home games.
Pick: Kansas State (-10.5)
Houston Cougars (7-2, 4-1 road) at #20 Louisville Cardinals (8-1, 4-1 home)
When: Saturday, 7:00pm ET
Open: Louisville -16.5
Current: Louisville -16
Houston in 2013: 8-1 ATS, 5-4 to the OVER
Louisville in 2013: 4-5 ATS, 7-2 to the UNDER
Analysis: There are two things that Houston does very, very well: Score points (38.1 pts/gm, 21st in NCAA) and cover spreads (8-1 ATS). And if there’s one thing Louisville does very poorly, it’s blow out opponents deemed to be inferior. The Cardinals’ last four games have featured three unimpressive wins (24-10 over 5-3 Rutgers, 34-3 over 2-6 South Florida and 31-10 over 0-8 UConn) and one devastating home loss (38-35 vs. Central Florida). In addition, Louisville is just 1-4 ATS over their last five games overall and 0-4 ATS over their last four games following a straight-up win. Meanwhile, Houston has covered the number in six straight road contests and is 10-1 ATS over their last 11 games overall. Don’t be shocked if this Cougars team departs Kentucky on Saturday night with their eighth win of the season.
Notable Trends: Houston is 16-5 ATS over their last 21 games following an against the spread win while Louisville is 1-5 ATS over their last six games following a win over more than 20 points.
Pick: Houston (+16)
Colorado State Rams (5-5, 2-2 road) at New Mexico Lobos (3-6, 2-3 home)
When: Saturday, 7:00pm ET
Open: Colorado State -4
Current: Colorado State -6
Colorado State in 2013: 7-3 ATS, 6-2-1 to the OVER
New Mexico in 2013: 5-4 ATS, 7-2 to the OVER
Analysis: New Mexico’s three wins have come against 1-8 UTEP, 1-9 New Mexico State and 2-8 Air Force, so it’s safe to assume that this is a step up in class for a Lobos team that is surrendering an average of 37.0 points per game this season (111th in NCAA). Colorado State has emerged victorious in three of their last four games, is one win away from bowl eligibility and is 5-0 ATS over their last five road contests. The early money steamed the Rams from -4 to -6 and we’re in total support of that sentiment.
Notable Trends: Colorado State is 5-1-1 ATS over their last seven games against teams with a losing record while New Mexico is 3-10 ATS over their last 13 games after scoring more than 40 points in the previous contest.
Pick: Colorado State (-6)
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