by Joe Fortenbaugh
September 05, 02013
An inauspicious start to the college football season to say the least, but certainly not a situation that will prevent a good night’s sleep. It’s a marathon, not a sprint. Here’s what we’re backing in week 2:
Last week: 3-4
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Houston Cougars (1-0, 0-0 road) at Temple Owls (0-1, 0-0 home)
When: Saturday, 12:00pm ET
Open: Houston -3
Current: Houston -3
Houston in 2013: 1-0 ATS, 1-0 to the OVER
Temple in 2013: 1-0 ATS, 1-0 to the UNDER
Analysis: In last week’s season opener at Notre Dame, Temple’s defense was overwhelmed right off the bat and fell into a 14-0 hole. But quarterback Connor Reilly and the Owls fought the good fight, moved the rock down the field and were outscored by the 14th-ranked Irish just 14-6 over the final three quarters. Take note that the Notre Dame defense is vastly superior to what Temple will be facing this Saturday against Houston. The kicking game in North Philly is a mess at the current moment, but we believe the Owls are a live dog in their home opener and will have much more success converting in the red zone this Saturday.
Notable Trends: Houston is 1-4 ATS over their last five games played in the month of September while Temple is 10-3 ATS over their last 13 games played in the month of September.
Pick: Temple (+3, but willing to wait to get +3.5)
Army Black Knights (1-0, 0-0 road) at Ball State Cardinals (1-0, 1-0 home)
When: Saturday, 1:00pm ET
Open: Ball State -7
Current: Ball State -7.5
Army in 2013: 0-1 ATS, 1-0 to the UNDER
Ball State in 2013: 1-0 ATS, 1-0 to the OVER
Analysis: The Mid-American Conference has absolutely owned Army as of late, having posted an 8-0 straight-up record (7-1 ATS) against the Black Knights over the last eight meetings between team and conference. Ball State’s weakness comes against the pass, where the Cardinals surrendered an average of 255.3 yards per game through the air last season. The upside here is that Army threw the ball a grand total of just 115 times in 12 outings last year, so Ball State knows the key to limiting Army will be defending the run. Be advised that Ball State is 15-5 ATS over their last 20 games overall while Army is just 2-8 ATS over their last ten games against teams with a winning record.
Notable Trends: Army is 0-4 ATS over their last four road games while Ball State is 20-8 ATS over their last 28 non-conference games.
Pick: Ball State (-7.5)
#2 Oregon Ducks (1-0, 0-0 road) at Virginia Cavaliers (1-0, 1-0 home)
When: Saturday, 3:30pm ET
Open: Oregon -22.5
Current: Oregon -22
US PRESSWIREMarcus Mariota and the Ducks came out guns blazing in Week 1.
Oregon in 2013: 1-0 ATS, 1-0 to the OVER
Virginia in 2013: 1-0 ATS, 1-0 to the UNDER
Analysis: So much for the loss of head coach Chip Kelly, as Oregon’s high-powered offense picked up right where it left off with a 66-3 dismantling of Nicholls State last Saturday. The Ducks are 8-1 ATS over their last nine games and 5-1 ATS over their last six contests following an ATS win. Virginia took out a quality BYU squad last weekend, but the Cavaliers are just 1-7-1 ATS over their last nine home matchups.
Notable Trends: Oregon is 5-0 ATS over their last five road games while Virginia is 1-8 ATS over their last nine games against teams with a winning record.
Pick: Oregon (-22)
Buffalo Bulls (0-1, 0-1 road) at #23 Baylor Bears (1-0, 1-0 home)
When: Saturday, 3:30pm ET
Open: Baylor -27.5
Current: Baylor -27.5
Buffalo in 2013: 1-0 ATS, 1-0 to the OVER
Baylor in 2013: 1-0 ATS, 1-0 to the OVER
Analysis: Congratulations to Buffalo, who found a way to cover the number last weekend against Urban Meyer and the Ohio State Buckeyes (lost 40-20). But the Bulls now take up the unenviable task of playing a second straight road game, which comes against a high-octane Baylor offense that is an impressive 13-3 ATS over their last 16 home games. Buffalo is just 4-11 ATS over their last 15 contests against winning opposition while Baylor is 14-3 over their last 17 games against teams with a losing record. Keep an eye on Baylor RB and Heisman hopeful Lache Seastrunk in this one, who rushed for 111 yards and two scores on just 11 carries last Saturday against Wofford.
Notable Trends: Buffalo is 1-6 ATS over their last seven road games against teams with a winning home record while Baylor is 7-0 ATS over their last seven games overall.
Pick: Baylor (-27.5)
#15 Texas Longhorns (1-0, 0-0 road) at BYU Cougars (0-1, 0-0 home)
When: Saturday, 7:00pm ET
Open: Texas -4.5
Current: Texans -7.5
Texas in 2013: 1-0 ATS, 1-0 to the OVER
BYU in 2013: 0-1 ATS, 1-0 to the UNDER
Analysis: Smashing up a New Mexico State team that surrendered 39.4 points per game in 2012 is exactly what a squad like Texas should have done last weekend, so forgive us if we decline to award any style points to Mack Brown and co. following their 56-7 win. BYU, on the other hand, came up short at Virginia, but take note that the Cougars are 7-0 ATS over their last seven games following a straight-up loss. Texas has the potential to be a special team in 2013, but Provo has proven to be one of the toughest road wins to accomplish over the last few years, as the Cougars have gone 38-5 at home since 2006.
Notable Trends: Texas is 4-0 ATS over their last four non-conference games while BYU is 9-3 ATS over their last 12 games against teams with a winning record.
Pick: BYU (+7.5)
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