by Joe Fortenbaugh
September 12, 02013
We’ve got an interesting mix of games for you this week ranging from the most anticipated showdown of the season in Alabama-Texas A&M to a just-as-important clash between Stony Brook and Buffalo. It’s all about keeping a diverse portfolio, people.
Last week: 4-1
Season: 7-5 (.583)
CLICK HERE to check out all of the current lines.
#7 Louisville Cardinals (2-0, 0-0 road) at Kentucky Wildcats (1-1, 1-0 home)
When: Saturday, 12:00pm ET
Open: Louisville -12.5
Current: Louisville -13.5
Bridgewater needs to impress the voters with big-time numbers...and that's exactly what he'll do on Saturday.
Louisville in 2013: 1-1 ATS, 2-0 to the UNDER
Kentucky in 2013: 1-1 ATS, 1-1 to the OVER
Analysis: Teddy Bridgewater’s Heisman Trophy campaign is off to a prodigious start thanks to a completion percentage of 76.7%, 752 passing yards and nine touchdowns through his first two games, and there’s no reason to believe that the quarterback and his Louisville Cardinals will take their foot off the gas this Saturday against in-state rival Kentucky. The Wildcats are 3-9 ATS over their last 12 games and take note that Louisville is 5-2 ATS over their last seven games at Kentucky, while the road team in this series is 4-1 ATS over the last five meetings. In last year’s showdown, Bridgewater went 19 for 21 with 232 yards in a 32-14 victory.
Notable Trends: Louisville is 16-5 ATS over their last 21 road games while Kentucky is 1-9 ATS over their last ten games following an against the spread win.
Pick: Louisville (-13.5)
Fresno State Bulldogs (2-0, 0-0 road) at Colorado Buffaloes (2-0, 1-0 home)
When: Saturday, 2:00pm ET
Open: Fresno State -10
Current: Fresno State -10
Fresno State in 2013: 0-2 ATS, 1-1 to the OVER
Colorado in 2013: 2-0 ATS, 1-1 to the OVER
Analysis: New head coach Mike MacIntyre has the Buffaloes off to the school’s first 2-0 start since 2008, but don’t think for one second that this team has forgotten about the 69-14 curb-stomping that Fresno State put on them last season. Including his previous stop at San Jose State, MacIntrye has now covered the number in 15 of his last 17 games and his new-look Buffaloes have all the motivation they need for this one, as the revenge factor here is in full effect. Also worth noting is the fact that Fresno State is just 15-37-1 ATS over their last 53 games played on grass.
Notable Trends: Fresno State is 2-5 ATS over their last seven games against Pac-12 opposition while Colorado is 4-1 ATS over their last five games overall.
Pick: Colorado (+10)
#1 Alabama Crimson Tide (1-0, 1-0 road) at #6 Texas A&M Aggies (2-0, 2-0 home)
When: Saturday, 3:30pm ET
Open: Alabama -7.5
Current: Alabama -8
Saban and the Tide are out for revenge.
Alabama in 2013: 1-0 ATS, 0-0-1 to the OVER
Texas A&M in 2013: 1-1 ATS, 2-0 to the OVER
Analysis: ‘Bama is 7-2 ATS over their last nine games as a road favorite, has had two weeks to prepare for this showdown and is heading to College Station out for revenge following last November’s 29-24 loss to the Aggies—the lone blemish on the Crimson Tide’s 2012 championship resume. Take note that Alabama head coach Nick Saban is 7-1 both straight-up and against the spread in revenge games since arriving in Tuscaloosa in 2007. This is the game we’ve all been waiting for, but rest assured, nobody is looking forward to it more than the Crimson Tide.
Notable Trends: Alabama is 20-8 ATS over their last 28 road games while Texas A&M is 6-2 ATS over their last eight games overall.
Pick: Alabama (-7.5, purchased on Sunday evening)
Stony Brook Seawolves (1-0, 1-0 road) at Buffalo Bulls (0-2, 0-0 home)
When: Saturday, 3:30pm ET
Open: Buffalo -14
Current: Buffalo -12
Stony Brook in 2013: N/A
Buffalo in 2013: 1-1 ATS, 2-0 to the OVER
Analysis: This pick was sent my way thanks to a trusted friend out here in Vegas and I wanted to pass it along so you guys could share in the fun. Buffalo got smashed by a combined score of 110-33 over their first two games (at Ohio State, at Baylor) and now returns home to face a Stony Brook squad that has gone 20-4 straight-up since their loss to this same Buffalo team two years ago. Take note that after hitting the board at -14 this line was immediately bet down to -12. You can rest easy knowing it wasn’t the square bettors who had anything to do with that movement.
Notable Trends: Favorites who lost back-to-back games on the road by a combined total of less than 80 points while surrendering 108-120 total points in the process are 0-20 against the spread. Specific? Yes. Fits the bill for Buffalo? Yes.
Pick: Stony Brook (+12)
Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-1, 0-1 road) at Auburn Tigers (2-0, 2-0 home)
When: Saturday, 7:00pm ET
Open: Auburn -7
Current: Auburn -6
Mississippi State in 2013: 1-1 ATS, 1-1 to the OVER
Auburn in 2013: 1-1 ATS, 2-0 to the UNDER
Analysis: Mississippi State head coach Dan Mullen is just 5-16 straight-up and 7-14 against the spread against SEC West opposition since arriving in Starkville back in 2009. Mullen’s also just 1-3 both SU and ATS against Auburn, but came away with a victory over the Tigers last season, 28-10, which puts the revenge factor in play here for new head coach Gus Malzahn and the home team. Take note that in this series the home team is 4-1 ATS over the last five meetings and the favorite is 8-3 ATS over the last 11 meetings.
Notable Trends: Mississippi State is 1-4 ATS over their last five conference games while Auburn is 21-10-1 ATS over their last 32 games following a straight-up win of more than 20 points.
Pick: Auburn (-6.5)
Maryland Terrapins (2-0, 0-0 road) at Connecticut Huskies (0-1, 0-1 home)
When: Saturday, 7:30pm ET
Open: Maryland -7
Current: Maryland -6.5
Maryland in 2013: 2-0 ATS, 1-1 to the OVER
Connecticut in 2013: 0-1 ATS, 1-0 to the OVER
Analysis: The Terrapins’ strong ATS streak from the end of 2012 has carried over into this season, as Maryland is now 4-1 ATS over their last five non-conference games and 5-1 ATS over their last six games following a straight-up win. But more importantly, this is a matchup that features Maryland head coach Randy Edsall against his former team in Connecticut, who lost their season-opener to FCS Towson 33-18. The Huskies have an extra week to prepare for this showdown, but we don’t see that making much of a difference, as Maryland should cruise in this spot. Take note that Connecticut is 2-7-1 ATS over their last ten games.
Notable Trends: Maryland is 4-0 ATS over their last four games overall while Connecticut is 1-4-1 ATS over their last six home games.
Pick: Maryland (-6.5)
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