by Joe Fortenbaugh
September 26, 02012
The good news is that we’re still hovering above the .500 mark for our selections on the season. The bad news is that the last two weeks have been a total grind. Let’s see if we can turn the tides in Week 5 and get this train back on the tracks.
Last week: 3-3
Season: 14-12 (.538)
CLICK HERE to check out the current lines.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (3-1, 1-1 road) at Arkansas State Red Wolves (2-2, 2-0 home)
When: Saturday, 7:00pm ET
Current: Western Kentucky -2.5
Analysis: After knocking off the Kentucky Wildcats 32-31 on the road in overtime two weeks ago, the Hilltoppers entered last Saturday in the dreaded “letdown situation.” And how did that work out, you ask? Western Kentucky blew the doors off Southern Mississippi 42-17 in a game that was never in doubt. That’s a sign of good coaching. WKU is cooking with gas right now and is 17-4 ATS in their last 21 conference games. If this team covers another number for us, we’ll seriously consider buying the jersey.
Take note: Western Kentucky is 9-0 ATS in their last nine games following a straight-up win while Arkansas State is 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games.
Pick: Western Kentucky (-2.5)
Minnesota Golden Gophers (4-0, 1-0 road) at Iowa Hawkeyes (2-2, 1-2 home)
When: Saturday, 12:00pm ET
Open: Iowa -5.5
Current: Iowa -7.5
Analysis: Bowen’s going to give me a world of crap for this, but the Hawkeyes don’t look like a very good football team right now. Iowa has dropped two of their last three and is just 1-3 against the spread this season while the Gophers have quietly put together an impressive 4-0 run to open the year, with a 3-1 mark against the number. The point spread is moving against us, but now that it’s through the key number of 7, I’ve got no problem backing a dog that is 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.
Take note: Minnesota is 6-0 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win while Iowa is 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
Pick: Minnesota (+7.5)
Miami (OH) RedHawks (2-2, 0-2 road) at Akron Zips (1-3, 1-1 home)
When: Saturday, 2:00pm ET
Open: Miami (OH) -8.5
Current: Miami (OH) -4.5
Analysis: A four-point line movement towards a team that is 1-3? Yeah, that should sound off the alarms. Miami has yet to cover a spread this season and is just 6-18 ATS in their last 24 games played in the month of September. Meanwhile, the Zips are 4-0 ATS in their last four September games and are coming off a hard-fought cover against the Tennessee Volunteers. For the line to move this much, this fast, something’s got to be up.
Take note: The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these two teams.
Pick: Akron (+4.5)
#19 Louisville Cardinals (4-0, 1-0 road) at Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (0-3, 0-1 home)
When: Saturday, 8:00pm ET
Open: Louisville -11
Current: Louisville -10
Charlie Strong and the Cardinals should have their way with Southern Mississippi.
Analysis: Another game where the line is moving against us, but keep in mind that Southern Miss is coming off a blowout loss to Western Kentucky and is just 1-4 ATS in their last five games when scoring less than 20 points in their previous contest. Louisville is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games against Conference USA opponents and got a bit of a wakeup call last week against Florida International, who hung tight before losing 28-21. Oh yeah, Louisville is also 6-0 ATS in their last six games against the Golden Eagles.
Take note: Louisville is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games while Southern Mississippi is 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games.
Pick: Louisville (-10)
Stony Brook Seawolves (3-1, 0-1 road) at Army Black Knights (0-3, 0-1 home)
When: Saturday, 12:00pm ET
Open: No line posted yet (Saturday morning)
Current: No line posted yet (Saturday morning)
Analysis: What would our weekly college football betting primer be if we didn’t include at least one obscure game for you to consider? This line likely won’t be posted until Saturday morning, so keep that in mind when you roll out of bed after a long Friday night on the town. I don’t have any trends or any solid analysis to give you except for the fact that I’ve talked to a couple of guys here in town whose opinions I very much respect that plan on backing Stony Brook. Remember, Army is 0-3 this year and ranks 123rd in the country in points surrendered (44.0 pts/gm).
Take note: No trends for this bad boy. My apologies.
Pick: Stony Brook (at the opening number)
Hit me up on Twitter: @JoeFortenbaugh