by Joe Fortenbaugh
October 11, 02012
My apologies to those of you who were looking for the CFB primer on Wednesday. I spent the afternoon working on this NFL revenge factor article and had to push back this week’s uninspiring picks to today. With the way these selections are going, feel free to fade yourself silly.
Last week: 1-5 (Goodbye, Heineken. Hello, Natty Light)
Season: 17-20 (.459)
CLICK HERE to check out the current lines.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (4-1, 2-1 road) at Troy Trojans (3-2, 0-2 home)
When: Thursday, 7:30pm ET
Open: WKU -2
Current: WKU -2.5
Analysis: The Hilltoppers are a covering machine with a current ATS mark of 18-3 over their last 21 conference games and 21-5 in their last 26 matchups overall. The only concern here is the fact that Troy is coming off the bye, where they are 8-1 ATS over their last nine games. Still, Western Kentucky has been good to us this year and we certainly don’t plan on jumping ship this week.
Take note: WKU is 4-0 ATS in their last four games against teams with a winning record while Troy is 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games.
Pick: Western Kentucky (-2.5)
North Carolina Tar Heels (4-2, 0-2 road) at Miami Hurricanes (4-2, 2-0 home)
When: Saturday, 2:30pm ET
Open: UNC -5.5
Current: UNC -7.5
Analysis: The Tar Heels have lost each of their last two games at Miami, but come into Saturday’s showdown with the nation’s ninth-ranked scoring offense (44.0 pts/gm) and a 5-2-1 ATS mark against the ‘Canes over their last eight. Miami got hammered 41-3 in Chicago against Notre Dame last Saturday and is now surrendering an average of 34.7 points per game (103rd) on the season. Keep in mind that UNC rolls into South Florida this weekend on a three-game win streak in which they’ve outscored their opponents 141-40.
Take note: UNC is 4-0 ATS in their last four games on grass while Miami is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games.
Pick: UNC (-7.5)
#4 Florida Gators (5-0, 2-0 road) at Vanderbilt Commodores (2-3, 1-1 home)
When: Saturday, 6:00pm ET
Open: Florida -9
Current: Florida -8
Will Muschamp's team has been cruising. But will they get caught looking ahead to next week's showdown with South Carolina?
Analysis: The Gators find themselves in an extremely tough spot at Vandy this weekend coming off a marquee win over LSU with South Carolina and Georgia on deck. But here’s the thing: Florida is well-coached, plays great defense and is 5-2 ATS in their last seven games at Vanderbilt. This could be a trap game for the Gators, but then again, Florida had every right to look ahead to their bye week and the ensuing LSU game when they played Kentucky a few weeks back and instead, Will Muschamp’s crew blasted the Wildcats 38-0.
Take note: Florida is 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall while Vanderbilt is 1-5 ATS in their last six home games against teams with a winning road record.
Pick: Florida (-8)
Maryland Terrapins (3-2, 1-1 road) at Virginia Cavaliers (2-4, 2-1 home)
When: Saturday, 3:00pm ET
Open: Virginia -3
Current: Virginia -1.5
Analysis: So Maryland is 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings against Virginia, but the line opens -3 and is immediately bet down to -1.5? Maybe it has something to do with the fact that Virginia is 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall and 0-5 ATS in their last five matchups against teams with a winning record.
Take note: Maryland is 7-1 ATS over their last eight games after racking up less than 275 yards in their previous game, while Virginia is 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games against teams with winning road records.
Pick: Maryland (+1.5)
#6 Kansas State Wildcats (5-0, 1-0 road) at Iowa State Cyclones (4-1, 2-1 home)
When: Saturday, 12:00pm ET
Open: Kansas State -6.5
Current: Kansas State -6.5
Analysis: This is another game that smells fishy. Kansas State hammered Miami 52-13, went into Norman and beat up the Sooners 24-19 and then destroyed in-state rival Kansas 56-16, yet the line is holding steady at -6.5. Why? For starters, the Wildcats have a marquee showdown at West Virginia on deck and keep in mind that Iowa State is 4-1 ATS in their last five conference games and 7-3 ATS in their last ten matchups against teams with a winning record.
Take note: The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these two teams.
Pick: Iowa State (+6.5)
Oklahoma State Cowboys (2-2, 0-1 road) at Kansas Jayhawks (1-4, 1-2 home)
When: Saturday, 3:30pm ET
Open: Oklahoma State -20
Current: Oklahoma State -27.5
Analysis: The last time we saw Oklahoma State was two weeks ago when the team lost a heartbreaker to Texas 41-36. Coming off a week of rest, the Cowboys bring the nation’s top-ranked scoring offense (55.8 pts/gm) to Lawrence to face a Jayhawks team that ranks 86th in the country in scoring defense and just got blasted 56-16 by in-state rival Kansas State. Oh yeah, you might want to keep in mind the fact that Okie State is 8-1 ATS in their last nine games against the Jayhawks.
Take note: Oklahoma State is 4-0 ATS in their last four games at Kansas while the Jayhawks are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games played in the month of October.
Pick: Oklahoma State (-27.5)
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