Saints vs. Bears Preview

New Orleans Saints (7-6) at Chicago Bears (7-6)

Soldier Field, Chicago: 8:15 (EST) NFL Network

Weather: Low of 19 Degrees, possible snow flurries

LINE: Bears -3  OVER: 45

RANKINGS:

New Orleans: Offense 405.9 (1^st)/ Defense 344.1 (21^st)

Chicago: Offense 308.0 (24^th)/ Defense 325.4 (17^th)

What’s at Stake:

Quite a bit, actually. New Orleans and Chicago are still in the hunt for a playoff spot (huge for the NFL Network). The Bears can still win the NFC North, while the Saints have to win out and get some help to claim the final NFC wild card spot. If you were waiting for a meaningful game on a Thursday night, this is it.

Match-ups to Watch:

1. Drew Brees vs. Chicago’s Pass Rush: EDGE Brees

Chicago has had trouble getting to the quarterback with a four-man rush in its Tampa 2 coverage scheme, hence the extra pressure packages you will see on third downs tonight. Don’t be surprised to see plenty of zone pressures from the Bears on third down, and do expect to see Brees convert on plenty of those opportunities. If the Bears can’t get to Brees, you can forget about the NFC North title.

2. Matt Forte vs. Saints’ Front Seven: EDGE Forte

The Saints are giving up 112 yards a game on the ground to opposing offenses this season, and I don’t expect that to change tonight. Although they put in a good day’s work against Michael Turner last Sunday, the Bears’ entire offense seems to go through the rookie from Tulane. I see Forte going over the 100-yard mark by the start of the fourth quarter. Is it going to be enough?

3. Saints’ WRs vs. Bears’ DBs: EDGE Saints

No surprise here. Lance Moore, Devery Henderson, Marques Colston and even Reggie Bush will make some plays in the passing game tonight. The Bears will counter with their Tampa 2, hoping to get their hands on the ball and create turnovers. The key to playing and beating New Orleans is limiting the big gains in the passing game. If the Bears can make the Saints work their way down the field, they have a shot to keep them under 30 points. If not, it could be a long night next to Lake Michigan.

4. Reggie Bush/Pierre Thomas vs. Bears’ Front Seven: EDGE Bears

This is the key to the ballgame in my mind. The Bears do not want to play Cover 1 or Cover 3 against the Saints’ passing attack. The only way to avoid this is to play stout run defense out of their seven-man fronts. Last week, New Orleans found out it could win games with a balanced attack of run and pass. For the Bears, they are hoping Drew Brees has to drop back 60 times in the cold. I see the Bears limiting the amount of rushing yards by the Saints and forcing Brees to throw all night.

Overview:

The weather should be brutal in Soldier Field, and the Saints are 1-5 outside of the Superdome. On paper, this might be a Saints win, but they aren’t the same football team when they leave town. During a short week, it is essential to start fast and score early. Tonight could get crazy with the weather.

Prediction:

It is hard to pick the Saints on the road and on grass. Soldier Field might have the worst playing surface in the league this time of the season. I see the Bears causing some turnovers, scoring on defense and holding off New Orleans in the fourth quarter of an entertaining game.

BEARS 31 SAINTS 27

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