Week 15 started with a bang last night as the Chicago Bears kept their playoff hopes alive, defeating the New Orleans Saints 27-24 in overtime on a cold night at Soldier Field. The Bears’ three point victory ended my five game hot streak, putting me at 5-0-1 through my last six games. How are everyone’s fantasy playoff games looking after last night’s showdown? Outside of WR Lance Moore, there was some decent offensive production on both sides of the ball, so I’d imagine most of you guys are in good shape heading into Sunday. Before we get into your Friday edition of Start Em vs. Sit Em, remember, our “college bowl pick em challenge” is right around the corner, so stay tuned. In addition, Bowen and I will be offering an NFL Playoff Pick Em as well, so everybody better study up.
Sunday Smash: Since its Friday here at the Post, I want everyone reading this column to check out our odds page and leave a comment here with your Sunday lock of the day. I hate to keep picking against the same team (sorry BROO), but I’m taking the New York Giants (+3) at Dallas. This is the one game that I cannot figure out why the line is what it is. So far in 2008, NFL teams are 4-6 the week after they have played the Pittsburgh Steelers (not against the spread).
Now, to business:
START EM
Dominic Rhodes RB Indianapolis Colts: Let me start by saying that if you have a viable every down running back, Rhodes is probably not the guy for you. This is a recommendation for fantasy owners in a pinch because of injuries to Addai, Barber and Jacobs. That being said, Rhodes is a reliable start this Sunday when the Colts host the winless Detroit Lions. Detroit is ranked dead last against the rush, allowing 31.8 points and 173.5 yards per game on the ground. In addition, it’s a virtual certainty that Indy will get up big, early in this game, allowing the Colts to play keep away by featuring their run game. Enter Dominic Rhodes. With Addai being held out of practice all week, his best case scenario for Week 15 would be limited touches. Keep in mind: the Colts are looking ahead to the playoffs and have a reliable backup running back. They do not plan on jeopardizing Addai’s health just so they can beat the Lions. Let’s be honest. Indy’s C-squad could blow out Detroit. Look for Rhodes to get a good share of the carries against the league’s worst defense with the opportunity to punch in at least one score. He makes for a good flex on Sunday.
SIT EM
Marshawn Lynch RB Buffalo Bills: I hate to do it, but with the way the Bills have been playing lately, coupled with the fact that J.P. Losman will most likely be under center this Sunday, I have to recommend you sit Lynch. Buffalo heads to the Meadowlands for an AFC East divisional showdown with the New York Jets this week. The Jets currently rank 4th in the NFL against the run, allowing just 83.5 yards per game. In addition, they are currently stuck in a three-way tie for first place with the Dolphins and Patriots, so you know they are coming out of the locker room hungry and focused. The Bills have been abysmal on offense the past two games, scoring a grand total of six points and racking up a paltry 513 total yards en route to two straight losses. Remember, those numbers aren’t just from last week, they are from the last two games COMBINED. That is downright terrible. Look for Lynch to fall by the wayside as Losman struggles against the New York defense.
hey jake: first off, thanks for reading. I'd start Bess over Berrian due to the fact that 1) Tarvaris Jackson is starting and 2) Bess has been Pennington's favorite target since he stepped into the starting lineup.
The Breaston/Bess matchup is a tough one. Breaston offers more of a reward, but is a slightly bigger gamble, since Fitz and Boldin could get all of the looks. Bess is generally good for 60-80 yards, but has not had a "big time" game as of yet. If you feel like taking a risk, go Breaston. If you want to play it safe, go Bess.
Good Luck!
Hey Joe, I like the Broncos +7.5. I believe we are going to see the Denver team that started out looking so good. Who needs a backfield? Not Cutler. Also, 33 O/U Pitt v Bal. I'll go over.
Last night I started Colston over Moore. I took a poll of 8 people (you included) and it was 5-3 Marques...phew!
Michael: nice call on Colston....im glad that worked out for ya!
I like the Broncos pick. They showed two weeks ago they can win on the road, and I think everyone is a little too high on Carolina right now. Yes, they looked great on Monday night, but Tampa is mediocre on the road.
That Pitt/Balt pick will be interesting. I bet the defense scores more than the offense
Sat Thomas last night since a good game would take touches from my opponents Bush at the least. The 30points would have been nice, but as the saying goes, "a solid game in Welker is worth two in the Bush."
Joe,
Well, Shockey and Colston vs. Moore and Thomas didn't go so well for me last night. But, I still have my mega studs ready to go for this Sunday. He has a good team and it should be a close matchup. I would love to see Arizona vs. Minnesota turn into a defensive struggle because he has Warner, Fitz, and AP but that probably wont happen.
Pitt getting a point at Bal is a lock. The Steelers finally show the Ravens what a rookie QB is supposed to look like against an elite NFL defense in a playoff type atmosphere.
Joe,
I need to start two out of Bess, K Walter, H Ward, D Branch or Cadillac Williams (one spot is flex), what do you think? I have no clue what to do here. Of course it doesn't matter much, had so much bad luck this season I'm out of playoffs for certain. I'd still like to win though.
Hey Joe,
Went with Colston and lucked out that he had a good game.
Have one spot left now. Bess, Desean Jax, or Walter. Of these three, lots of people have Walter ranked the highest. He's been hot, but I can't possibly start him against Tennessee, right? Who do you like the best?
uncle dan: agreed. welker has been great this year.
joey: it didnt go too bad for ya. colston beat moore and while thomas had a nice game, you're still not in bad shape. Warner, Fitz and AP is going to be tough to overcome.
i like the pittsburgh pick, although that game smells fishy
Quad: i like RBs over WRs at flex, so i'd put Cadillac in the lineup. In addition, go with either Bess or Branch at WR. Walter and Ward have bad matchups.
Cooper: good call on Colston. he had a nice night. I dont like Walter as much vs. Tenn. Id go with either of the other two, since they have much more favorable matchups
Hey Joe,
Any word on Jacobs, it sounds like he won't play and my options aren't great. I have Hightower and McFadden but am thinking of picking up Ricky Williams instead to put in. What are your thoughts? As always i appreciate the help.
Hey Joe!
Given our previous exchanges the last few days, I'm going with the following line-up in a PPR league:
QB - McNabb
RB - BWest, J.Stewart
WR/TE - S.Smith(Car), DeSean Jax
FLEX - Gates, Slaton
Bench - Collins, Lynch, Evans
I agree with your Sit 'Em reco of Lynch - already had him on the bench.
My question is: with a full week of 1st team reps, is it possible that Losman plays better this week and so I need to consider Evans (maybe for Gates)? Or, is the matchup just bad enough, considering it's a road game for BUF, that I just leave him on the bench...? FWIW, Gates has scored more TD's in his career against KC than any other team...
Thanks for everything this season - I win this weekend and I'm in our Super Bowl!!!
Merry Christmas,
Brian D.
Joe,
I have to say I feel pretty good right now. I made a last minute switch last night and pulled out lendale (you recommended him as a start for my flex earlier this week) and inserted P Thomas. I pulled lendale since he hasn't practiced yet this week and I could risk a big fat zero. Thomas had a nice game last night, and to make it even better I was playing a guy who had Brees, so I at least cancelled out one of Brees' TDs. Now I propose a different question for you? Lets say lendale does end up playing this weekend, should I consider him over LT (disappointment) or Turner (tough matchup although monday didn't reflect that)? Thanks for all the help this year Joe! Much appreciated.
"Straight Cash Homies" = Pierre Thomas
Utwrenn: he's a game time decision as of right now. hasnt practiced all week.
Williams is risky, but i think he's a better start than your other options. Oakland's offense has been pretty bad and Hightower faces a tough Minny D.
Jake: no doubt. thomas was awesome last night
Brian D: I like the lineup the way you have it right now. your bench players are in a tough spot with limited upside. I'd stick with what you've got. Good luck and Merry Xmas to you as well.
Travis: outstanding. good to hear your team is doing well so far. White is going to play this weekend. he's just being held out for precautionary reasons. However, there is no way i would start him in place of either Turner (stud) or LT (playing the chiefs).
Hey Joe, I'm in a pickle.
I have Marshawn Lynch and Jonathan Stewart. Do you see Stewart being good enough against Green Bay to warrant starting over the struggling Lynch? It should be noted I'm playing the guy with D'Angelo Williams in the second round of our fantasy playoffs and this could make for a great subplot to that game.
Hey Joe,
I asked you the other day about WR's. I currently have Marshall, Berrian, and Branch going, with Chambers and Chad Johnson on the bench.
After reading some of your other comments, seems like you're really down on Berrian because of the TJax starting. I can still make waiver wire adds, and both Bess and Gage are available.
Should I pick one of them up and swap out for Berrian, or just stick with Berrian in the off chance he catches another 99yd TD?
I don't trust Chambers or Johnson to do a thing.
Joe,
I meant to give you some props about your Cowboys implosion prediction. It hasn't completley happended yet, and a W this weekend would be a step in the "wrong" direction. But, there are significant rumblings and that makes me significantly excited. Get your popcorn ready! You are going to have to revisit that post in a couple of weeks or repost it so we can see how wrong we were about things. Enjoy your weeekend.
Tony: I would recommend you start Stewart vs. Denver instead of Lynch vs. the Jets. Losman is starting again this week and denver has a bad rush defense. Williams will most likely have a better day, but Stew should do more than Lynch.
Jason: i agree, i wouldnt put CJ or chambers in the lineup. they have both done nothing as of late. I think Bess gives you a nice, consistent chance for production. he is a safe play. Berrian always has a chance to make a big play, and Minny will have to throw to stay in this game, but if you are looking for something safe, go Bess.
Joey: haha...thanks. no need for props just yet, its only been 1 game. That predictions article has been close. I said Marshall would blow up (he did) and Dallas would fall off. But i also said Philly would be a let down and so far they are pretty hot. so that one was a bust
Hi Joe,
J. Stewart or Sammie Morris at RB this weekend?
thanks-
Swillburg: I like J.Stewart over Morris. Stewart gets a weak Denver run D and is coming off a monster game. while morris has a good matchup as well, id still lean towards stewart
Evans or Bess
I will refrain from picking either the Dallas or Philly games since that is obviously bad karma. Give me the Cards at home and give the points. Give me the under on Pitt/Ravens.
Jacobs is out. I will suck it up and bench Lynch (hey that rhymes!) and play Ward against Dallas. If it doesn't pan out at least I can blame Joe in addition to myself.
Ok, this is a tough one.
In a PPR league, my opponent started P. Thomas last night, and got 32 points. I have Addai/Rhodes, C. Johnson, and Michael Turner. I can start two, and I now feel like I need a little explosive upside to counter P. Thomas' big night.
I'm starting C. Johnson for sure. The question is Rhodes or Michael Turner. If Addai is active I obviously go with Turner. But what if Addai is inactive? Turner does not get receptions, and Rhodes could easily catch 7-8 balls, in addition to good rushing yardage, if the game is a blowout. Any thoughts?
Is rhodes a better option than grant or stewart filling in for jacobs
Hey Joe,
Behind AP, I have Jacobs but he’s questionable. Warrick Dunn is on my bench. Should I start him or pick up Derrick Ward or Pierre Thomas off waivers if Jacobs can’t go? Points for 100+ rushing and TD’s only.
Keep up the great work!
Joe,
A RB question. I have the following and need to start 3:
Adrian Peterson
Deangelo Williams
Thomas Jones
Maurice Jones-Drew
I'm pretty sure I'm starting Peterson and Williams, but am up in the air between the other two. What do you think? Thanks!
Joe, Need some big time help, I need to start two of the following: Calvin Johnson, Randy Moss, Reggie Wayne. I've tortured myself all week over this....
Joe,
I just grabbed Bradshaw off of free agents because Jacobs is out. I have my flex spot open and Hightower, Arrington, K Curtis, Bradshaw, Norwood, and Roy Williams to choose from. Still leaning towards Hightower because I think he is the best play but what do you think? Bradshaw is appealing because he doesn't average negative yards per carry like Timmy does and he isn't playing the Vikings and their pill poppin' run stoppin' front 7. And, the Giants are obviously pretty decent at running the ball. Thanks.
Forte didn't exactly come through for me last night. I've got two more RB's to go and four to choose from: Slaton, Portis, Turner, and Rhodes. You named Slaton as one of your pick 6. Who do I use?
Joe
Hard one here, WOuld you start Bernard Berrian @ AZ
or
Santonio Holmes at Baltimore this weekend??
I am thinking Berrian, weather and such, but then there's TJ at QB..LOL..
Joe, help. If I can't play Addai, I've got to pick between Leon Washington, Willie Parker (but realistically, not worth the risk), or flexing to a WR, where Bess and DeSean Jackson are my options.
I'm thinking Washington, at home against Buffalo.
I'm wondering if I want to start Moss @ Oakland, drawing the cover of Nnamdi Asoasdkfjasldfjk, or deion branch vs STL...
Bill: I'd lean towards Evans due to the Jets passing defense. However, Bess is a slightly safer play.
BROO: hey, thats what i'm here for. you can blame me for anything!
Scot: after what he's done this season, i can't see any reason why you would sit Michael Turner. That being said, it looks like Addai won't be playing tomorrow, and even if he does, it will be limited. Detroit has the worst rushing defense in the league, so Rhodes has some good upside. Like i said however, its a gamble.
Sean: yes, i like rhodes more. He has the best matchup.
Chris: i'd pickup Ward and start him. Dunn will split with Cadillac and Thomas played Thursday night.
Michael Wahl: sit Jones Drew. The other three have great matchups.
Jeff D: I may sit Johnson. Orlovsky looks to be under center this weekend and while Megatron has been hot, his situation is worse than that of Moss and Wayne. If you want to start CJ, i'd sit Wayne. Indy should get up early and be content to run the ball.
Joey: I'd probably go with Bradshaw. I don't like the Hightower matchup against Minnesota. They have an excellent run defense.
Trevor: I don't do the pick six, derek belch does. I personally would start Portis and Turner, since I dont see anyway you could leave either of those guys on the bench. If you feel like rolling the dice, sit Turner for Rhodes. He has a great matchup
Chris: I agree with you. I like Berrian more as well. Baltimore is going to bring serious pressure on Big Ben, making it difficult for him to be successful throwing the football.
London: I always prefer backs to wrs in the flex spot. Washington is a little risky due to his lack of touches, but he is very explosive, so he's worth a shot. If you don't like him, I'd get Bess in the lineup. He's a pretty safe play.
TV: i see the logic, but there is no way i would sit moss for someone like Branch. He's only had 1 decent game this season.
Hi Joe....semifinal matchup here! Do I go with Hines Ward, Marvin Harrison, or Davone Bess at WR? I have Brees AP, MJD, Rhodes, Fitzgerald(WR), Jennings(WR), Gonzo(TE), and Indy D as starters, just need one more WR.
With this lineup, do I go the "safe route" with Bess, or take a chance Hines wants to stick it to the Ravens?
Hey Joe, I need to pick 3 backs to start between Chris Johnson, Tomlinson, S.Jackson, and Slaton. Not sure if I want to rely heavy on the rooks but they have carried me all season.
Hey joe, was somehow able to pick up D Rhodes in a league. Should I start him over Ward?
One more too. Calvin Johnson or Wes Welker?
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Dec 12, 2008
09:06 AM
Been reading you all year, thanks for the help! First time I've been compelled to write. Facing lots of injuries this week, so i need to choose between Bess and Breaston.
In my other league I'm torn between Bess and Berrian. Any advice? Thanks!