Fantasy trading deadlines are right around the corner, so I have decided to introduce a new article today. This is a more in-depth version of a column I write every Wednesday entitled, “The High-Low.” Joe Fortenbaugh
Fantasy trading deadlines are right around the corner, so I have decided to introduce a new article today. This is a more in-depth version of a column I write every Wednesday entitled, “The High-Low.” The objective is to analyze a fantasy player’s current value, and then project his future production to determine whether he should be traded (The High) or acquired (The Low). As always, feel free to leave your comments and let me know what you think.
THE HIGH
Maurice Jones Drew RB Jacksonville Jaguars: Coming off a monster fantasy performance against the Detroit Lions this past Sunday, now is the perfect time to sell off MJD. Jones Drew turned in one of the weekend’s best outings when he carried the rock 11 times for 70 yards (6.4 YPC) and 3 scores. Just for good measure, he added 2 receptions for 21yards to the mix. But unfortunately for MJD owners, all good things must come to an end. With the Detroit Lions blowout behind them, the Jags turn their attention to the upcoming schedule which features showdowns with Tennessee, Minnesota, Chicago, Baltimore and Green Bay. Not exactly the type of defenses that scream “please, walk all over us!” In addition, MJD’s performance on Sunday was the 7th time in 9 games he failed to break 100 yards rushing. Fantasy owners need to target an opponent on the playoff bubble in need of a running back and strike while the iron’s hot.
Kellen Winslow TE Cleveland Browns: The performance Winslow put up last Thursday night against the Broncos was exactly the type of showing fantasy owners had in mind when they drafted him in the early rounds back in August. Winslow was new quarterback Brady Quinn’s favorite target, catching a season-high 10 passes for 111 yards and two touchdowns. The problem, however, is that the cat is now out of the bag. Quinn was very hesitant to throw the ball down the field in Week 9, which means opposing defenses are going to look to limit Winslow’s open space over the middle, forcing Quinn to beat them deep (and if Braylon Edwards doesn’t figure out how to hold on to the football, this could be a disaster). Upcoming games against Buffalo, Tennessee, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh should be tough for Quinn to succeed in, limiting the total production out of Winslow. Target the owner in your league who has a good fantasy team, but is missing a reliable tight end.
DeAngelo Williams RB Carolina Panthers: Much like MJD above, Williams is coming off a remarkable performance that has increased his value to the max, making now the ideal time to ship him off. This past Sunday against a terrible Oakland defense, D-Will rushed for a season-high 140 yards and a score in a 17-6 road victory. The key piece of information to remember with Williams is that he carried the ball 19 times (second most carries this year) on Sunday, due to the nagging heel injury that has been limiting rookie RB Jonathan Stewart. As Stewart gets healthy, Williams’ weekly touches will almost certainly decrease. In addition, Carolina still has to play Green Bay, Tampa and New York, with the Giants game taking place in Week 16 (fantasy championship week for several leagues). Dealing DeAngelo now could land you a quality WR1 if you target the right player.
THE LOW
Tyler Thigpen QB Kansas City Chiefs: Yes, the Chiefs are terrible, but Thigpen has been playing some great football as of late. The second year quarterback out of Coastal Carolina has thrown 6 touchdown passes and ZERO interceptions in his last three outings (New York Jets, Tampa Bay, San Diego), while averaging 236.6 passing yards per game. In addition, the Kansas City offense has averaged 23.3 points per game during that three-game span, a dramatic increase from the 10.1 pts/gm they were averaging in their first six contests. The upside to Thigpen is that the remaining schedule features games with New Orleans, Oakland, Denver, San Diego and Cincinnati, all of which have struggled to defend the pass this season. If you’re in a league that starts two quarterbacks, or are struggling to find production from your current starter, Thigpen is a nice buy low option with some quality upside.
Joseph Addai RB Indianapolis Colts: For those of you out there who have been checking out the National Football Post on a regular basis, this analysis should not come as news to you. We all know Addai has been one of the biggest fantasy busts to date. Through 7 games (he missed two due to injury), Addai has only amassed 282 rushing yards and 4 TDs, a far cry from what’s expected out of a top 10 draft pick. However, there is light at the end of the tunnel. The Colts’ remaining schedule is very fantasy friendly, with games against Houston, San Diego, Cleveland, Cincinnati and Detroit all on the horizon. Additionally, the Indy offense has been coming together in recent weeks, averaging 23.1 points per game in their last six outings. Backup RB Dominic Rhodes should continue to be a factor, but the opportunity is there for Addai to go on a run.
Aaron Rodgers QB Green Bay Packers: After a hot start to the 2008 season, Rodgers has cooled off as of late, lowering his overall value. Through the first six games of the season, the Green Bay quarterback was averaging 247 passing yards per game, with 11 touchdown passes to only four interceptions. In his last three outings however, Rodgers has seen his production drop off to 214 YPG, with only 2 TDs and 1 INT. As an added piece of leverage, interested buyers should remember to mention the shoulder injury that has kept A-Rod on the injury report for the last few weeks. The silver lining here is that the Packers have upcoming games with New Orleans, Houston, Jacksonville and Detroit. Green Bay will be pushing hard for a playoff spot in the crowded NFC North, so expect to see the Pack ride the right arm of Rodgers through December.
Scot: i like your analysis. my point was that i dont see Williams' value increasing any higher than it currently is. In 9 games this season, he's only totaled three 100+ yard games, and has only three games in which he has found the end zone. In addition, he's never had more than 20 carries in a game and plays New Orleans in Week 17, which doesnt matter for some fantasy leagues.
I love the Steelers and Penn St. and they both played VERY similar games this weekend. They both controlled theor games for the most part, were the better teams, should have been ahead by much more after dominating the first half of their games, and especially, their star QBs throwing picks in the last 5 minutes of the game when their teams were ahead and they could have sealed the game!!! Think about it, they are earily similar!! At least my Steelers can live to see another day…..although seeing PSU in the Rose Bowl will be fun.
What do you think about these 2 similar games Joe?
Also, Benjarvus Green-Ellis or the recently signed Tatum Bell the rest of the year?
Joe,
Thank you for not naming any of my guys this week. I lost again and am in danger of not making the playoffs. However, i did nab Tatum Bell today. Chris in CT just asked about him. What should i expect? Thanks.
Joe;
D. Williams has scored in four weeks (caught a TD week 7 against NO). He had 20 runs in Week 5 against KC, and has touched the ball more than 15 times in 6 of 9 games. He has scored 6 TD's in his last 5 games, playing for a team that is fairly committed to the run, and an inviting playoff schedule to boot.
Hey, if someone is going to trade you Matt Forte, A. Boldin, or some other super stud, I am not one to say nay. But I for one would be hesitant to trade away a guy who is on a roll, in a good situation, and with a cupcake schedule, and then watch that guy contribute to someone else's fantasy championship, especially since you probably got him with a 5th or 6th round pick.
Any thoughts on Mark Bradley? He has been a double digit scorer for the last three weeks. Worth a $10 waiver wire pickup?
chris, i'd go with Green-Ellis. It will be interesting to see what kind of shape Bell is currently in.
Joey: no problem, although it looks as if your boy Colston has finally come around.
Scot: I cant argue your analysis, you make some excellent points and you hit exactly on the issue i was trying to drive home. Williams' current value has him in line to be worthy of a top (not boldin) WR at the current moment. he does have some soft games down the stretch, but i cant see his value getting any higher than it is right now.
Joe: Bradley has been playing great and with Thigpen playing some quality football, he should continue to be a decent WR2-3 option.
only time will tell.
The reports are that Bell has been living and working out in the Denver area since being released by the Lions. I just wonder how good a player Green-Ellis really is? Is he just keeping the seat warm until Morris/Jordan/Faulk come back? Or do the Pats really see something there? The Broncos have a pretty soft schedule and all the opposing defenses will be playing pass first against the Broncos. I wonder if he can capitilze on this.
Scot, J Stewart's injury is working in youre favor right now. If healty Williams touches would decrease.
After a few years of playing FFB, I've made a rule never to draft or pick up a Shanahan running back. He's just too unpredictable and he spreads the ball around.
Scooter;
If you check the game logs, you will see that Williams carries were going up (and eclipsing Stewart's) while Stewart was still healthy.
Joe, it just so happens that i have a trade pending involving one of your sell high guys and one of your buy low guys. Can you give me your opinion on whether or not this was a good trade for me? I sold MJD and bought A-Rod. Trade still pending.
Scot, I have Stewart, and boy do I wish I had Williams instead. I also live in Charlotte and have seen all of the Panthers' games. Williams is the man and he will continue to get the majority of the carries going forward. I think the point Joe is making is that things will not get any better for Williams than they now are, but it is opossible that they may get worse. At the very least, a healthy Stewart will vulture a few goal line TDs. If you love Williams, keep him, but if you are deep at RB, he is one guy you can trade and get real value for, such as Colston or Housh. The point is not that you don't want williams on your team going forward, but can a trade for a WR1 make your team even better. Do you want a flex RB who has TBay, Den, and the Giants in weeks 14-16, or a WR flex who has Atl, Chi, and Det in those weeks, as Colston does? Colston vs. Det in championship week sounds more tempting than Williams vs. the Giants.
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Nov 11, 2008
02:25 PM
You are completely wrong on D. Williams.
1. His touches are increasing, not decreasing, even when J. Stewart is active and in the game. Who says that J. Stewart's heel injury is healing up anytime soon? He was active this weekend. The fact of the matter is that D. Williams is flat outplaying J. Stewart.
2. What is it about the GB match-up that is supposed to scare me? And how could you possibly ignore his other matchups against DET, ATL, DEN and NO?
If anything, I would be using the supposed return of Stewart to try to grab D. Will. I will have D. Will firmly planted in my flex spot for most of the remainder of the season.