The Kurt Warner Effect

Arizona Cardinals head coach Ken Whisenhunt announced recently that veteran signal caller Kurt Warner will begin the season as the starting quarterback in the desert.  While Matt Leinart has certainly failed to meet expectations since his arrival in the NFL, what makes this article essential for fantasy football owners is the increase in production the Cardinals will see with Warner under center as opposed to Leinart.  The two biggest benefactors of Warner’s presence are star wide outs Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin.  This analysis breaks down the past two seasons (2006 and 2007) and compares the differences in production for Fitzgerald and Boldin when Kurt Warner is in the lineup as opposed to Matt Leinart.  The only games that are taken into account are the ones played ENTIRELY by either Warner or Leinart.  Any game in which the two split snaps has been thrown out. 

Here are the numbers produced by Fitzgerald and Boldin when Kurt Warner is the quarterback:

Here is the breakdown of offensive output when Matt Leinart is under center:

At this point, the argument can be asserted that Fitzgerald and Boldin produce better numbers with Warner in the huddle because he has played more games with the star WR tandem than Leinart has.  But when breaking down the analysis on a per game basis, the results are staggering.  Take a look at Larry Fitzgerald’s offensive breakdown over the past two years when he plays with Warner and Leinart:

When Kurt Warner starts at quarterback for the Arizona Cardinals, Larry Fitzgerald will, on average, catch over one more pass for over 36 more yards per game.  Fitzgerald is also scoring close to one touchdown a game with Warner as opposed to one in every three games with Leinart.  Here is how Anquan Boldin fares with Warner and Leinart:

The same can be said for Boldin.  He is catching over one more pass a game for 5 more yards with Warner than he is Leinart.  In addition, like Fitzgerald, Boldin finds pay dirt more frequently with Warner under center. 

While he may be 37 years old, it is clear that Kurt Warner is the more effective and efficient choice at quarterback for the Arizona Cardinals.  Fantasy owners who selected Fitzgerald and Boldin should feel very comfortable with Ken Whisenhunt’s decision to go with the experienced veteran over the inconsistent rookie.  For those of you in fantasy leagues that have Warner dangling on the waiver wire, it may be time to give some serious consideration to bringing him in as your QB2. 

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