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The Road To '09: Detroit Lions

As I continue my series on the NFL offseason, I make a stop in the NFC North and focus on the Detroit Lions. Here are five questions surrounding the team and some big possibilities with the No. 1 pick in this month’s draft. Matt Bowen

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As I continue my series on the NFL offseason, I make a stop in the NFC North and focus on the Detroit Lions. Here are five questions surrounding the team and some big possibilities with the No. 1 pick in this month’s draft.

The Road to ’09: Detroit Lions

1. What are the Lions going to do with the No. 1 pick?

There are plenty of possibilities for the Lions at No. 1. They could fool us all and trade out of the top spot (a common theory because of the amount of cash it takes to sign the top pick), go with a quarterback in Matthew Stafford of Georgia or select one of the stud offensive tackles on the board.

The Lions also hold the No. 20 pick in the first round. There are a lot of different avenues the team and new head coach Jim Schwartz can go down, but I still hold firm in my own opinion that Detroit shouldn’t pass on Stafford. Yes, I understand the various levels of criticism that he receives, but what draft pick doesn’t have question marks around him? He’s the best available option at the quarterback position, and if you’re going to hold on to that top draft pick — and pay the money it costs to sign the No. 1 overall pick — why not spend it on a quality arm that could be with the franchise for the next eight-plus seasons?

Obviously, tackle is another option, and there are plenty of names that could come off the board with the first pick — including Baylor’s Jason Smith and Virginia’s Eugene Monroe — but I would go after Stafford and build from there. Lots of work to do with that roster, so get the franchise quarterback while you can.

2. How will the Lions transition away from the Tampa 2 scheme?

Under Rod Marenlli, the Lions were a Tampa 2 defensive team, and that requires smaller, quicker linebackers and penetrating gap-control defensive linemen.

Under Schwartz, the Lions are going to have to find some size on defense to play the style of attacking football be brings from Tennessee. They made some nice moves, in my opinion, this offseason to bring is some size along the defensive line with Grady Jackson (6-2, 345), a playmaking outside linebacker in Julian Peterson — who can complement linebacker Ernie Simms — and two corners who are going to be asked to play man coverage behind their blitz scheme in Phillip Buchanon from Tampa Bay and Anthony Henry from Dallas.

But there’s still a need for someone to man the middle of the defense, and I expect the Lions to at least explore that possibility with their second pick (No. 20) in the first round when USC’s Rey Maualuga could be waiting. Plus, the Lions could look at the defensive end position on the second day of the draft to upgrade and improve their overall defensive line.

They aren’t there yet, but it takes time to fill personnel when a new defensive system is installed.

The Lions’ defensive players will be asked to do a lot more in Schwartz’s scheme, and at least Detroit fans can expect to come to the stadium and watch a unit that attacks and tries to dictate what offenses are allowed to do on the field instead of sitting back in coverage.

3. Do the Lions have a complement to Calvin Johnson at WR?

Calvin Johnson might be the most electric threat at the WR position since Randy Moss, and I think he can put up the type of numbers we’re accustomed to seeing from Moss — if the Lions put some weapons around him.

The Lions brought in free-agent WR Bryant Johnson from the 49ers, and although I still view him as a No. 3 on most rosters, it looks like he’ll end up opposite Johnson to start September. Bryant Johnson has never had more than 50 receptions in a season, and his career high in TDs is four. The Lions need those numbers to go up, but they also need a quarterback to get them the football.

The talent level at the wide receiver position on this roster is low — very low beyond C.J. — and I expect teams to try and take him out of games, prevent the deep ball to his side of the field and take their chances with Bryant Johnson and the running game. Points may be at a premium this fall in Detroit.

4. Can Daunte Culpepper win in Detroit?

There’s a reason Culpepper was originally released by the Vikings and why he went into a brief retirement before signing with Detroit — because he’s not a dependable signal-caller for a 16-game season.

Unfortunately for Lions fans, he may be the best option available until they can get a rookie ready to play (if they draft one). What Culpepper does bring to the table is big-time explosive play capability, as he has the arm strength to get the ball down the field — but with only C.J. available, who else is he going to throw to? Also, what he gives you in big plays he also gives you in interceptions. Culpepper has thrown 100 INTs in his career and can’t be counted on to make good decisions for a team that needs a quarterback who doesn’t turn the football over.

As long as Culpepper is the quarterback of this team you can expect the Lions to struggle. This is his third comeback attempt with as many teams since his release in Minnesota, and his track record speaks for itself. Even more reason to pick Stafford at No. 1.

5. What can we expect from RB Kevin Smith in his second season?

A lot.

This young running back is good, folks. He averaged over four yards a carry for an 0-16 team in ’08 and came close to the 1,000-yard mark. Considering the issues surrounding the Lions’ offensive line, those are great numbers.

Obviously, this could lead to a discussion that the Lions could draft an offensive tackle with the No. 1 pick and move current tackle Jeff Backus inside to guard. Does that help improve the overall run game? Yes, but there will be options at No. 20 that could solidify their offensive line needs as well.

However, I expect Smith, given the concerns at quarterback, to see a big increase in the amount of touches he sees, although he’ll get relief from former Seahawk Maurice Morris — who was a huge upgrade over former Lion Rudi Johnson. Bottom line: The Lions will be able to move the ball on the ground with Smith. And Schwartz, who saw an offense in Tennessee control the clock on the ground, should be more than happy to have whoever is lined up under center hand the ball off and grind the clock.

DRAFT POSSIBILITES

PICK No. 1

1. Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia

2. Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia

3. Jason Smith, OT, Baylor

PICK No. 20

1. Rey Maualuga, LB, USC

2. Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss

3. Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State

Next: Minnesota Vikings

Comments

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Northwoods Tom
Apr 06, 2009
04:39 PM

I feel for the Lions, and I do agree that Schwartz is making some solid moves on defense, but this franchise is years away from making any noise.

Millen cost this club five years of development going forward.

Scott
Apr 06, 2009
05:01 PM

Judging from last season, it's easy to say the lions are five years away from any success but they are only 1 year removed from a 7 win season. In today's NFL, even a historically awful team isn't 5 years away from being able to compete. I don't expect more than three or four wins for the Lions but if Schwartz is the coach we hope he is, it's only a matter of time before the Lions are competitive. Although it's sad that competitive is all us Lions fans are hoping for these days.

Bill Jenkins
Apr 06, 2009
05:12 PM

Matt....

Is there not a strong argument to spend the two first round picks on Defense? Your options are for 6 guys, 5 of which are offense. The Lions had the second worst defense in this history of the NFL last year...and we here in D-town are not feeling much love for offensive draft picks.

Bill in Lionville

Dave Miller
Apr 06, 2009
05:21 PM

I've been looking forward to this piece since you started this offseason series Matt. No matter who comprises this Lions draft class, I at least feel strong in my conviction that Jim Schwartz was the right hire for this club. I could no longer watch the Cover-2 for an entire season--at least with the fringe players the Lions were bringing in. I liked Bryant Johnson at PSU, but agree that he isn't my ideal #2. I really look forward to seeing Peterson and Sims play together. 4-12 baby!!!

Bob
Apr 06, 2009
05:23 PM

As a Packer's fan, it is difficult for me to say that I feel bad for the Lions. I do feel bad for the Lions FANS. The Ownership group in Detroit is one of the worst. I was staying in a hotel in Detroit once, and encountered a Detroit fan. Immediately, my Packers-instincts kicked in, and before I knew it, I was talking smack.

I used to go to college in Michigan, so this was like a 2nd language to me.

I went as far as to say, ‘until you get rid of Millen, you guys won’t be competitive’. This fan was not embarrassed to say that the Lions did, indeed suck. However he put more of the onus on the Ford family and less on Millen. I was almost bullet-less. I stood there, in mid-insult, with my conscience crumbling around me. I ended up hearing him out, finished my cigarette, and went to bed happy that in Green Bay, we still had the best team in professional sports. Since then, I have quit smoking, and the Lions have quit Millen. But will they quit losing in return? Only time will tell.

I will say this: I had Calvin Johnson on my fantasy team this year, and I would recommend him to anyone in need of a stud WR.

The moral? Detroit and the rest of the NFC North had better buckle up, because Green Bay is going to take its division back, by force, if necessary.

Out.

Eric Green
Apr 06, 2009
05:41 PM

Matt,
It should be noted that Linehan was the OC when Daunte had his best years. He may not have anything left, but he should be comfortable with the offense.

Snake Plisken
Apr 06, 2009
06:07 PM

As a Packer fan, I all ready long for the days of Matt Millen.

I'm unfortunately impressed by what I've seen from the Lions in the offseason.

Mr.Murder
Apr 06, 2009
06:14 PM

We decided to trade up in a mock and wait for Tebow in next year's draft.

We got Oher, Smith, and Moreno in the draft. The top corner and RB, a key OL piece to solidfy a pocket for DCulpp and do classic play pass stuff with the north weather games in mind on the road(where we want to win and seperate using Dome field results at home).

The top corner would allow them to manage some things around the rest of their backfield, we got Tech's free safety on a BPA basis as well late in the first day. Thoe two additions would allow you to safety help at one position and solo Smith at the other.

We like those chances.

Moreno should move up for his catch ability, a back who can catch a dozen times would take a ton of pressure off CJ in the early down pass game twice over.

Yes, we did go to GA to get a pick, but when the Lions win big they run the ball well(Sims,Sanders). They have a good back but we felt two at the position are needed(most teams now feel the same @ Qb and we're a year off working that aspect). Moreno's elusiveness would magnify playing turf as well.


Parker Wilson was there late in day two, we should have got him but felt he would be gone by rd 7 so we stayed with a TE pick to help bolster the O and take more focus off CJ. We picked up one of the best returner wideouts in day two as well to run people off CJ.

Look for Flynn or Brohm off the wire. That's if GB doesn't have them moving up to replace Rodgers should the Pack reach the 6 win plateau again.

The Lions are loaded for bear with the draft picks resulting the Williams trade. They should get a suprise BPA in each round that moves their team forward radically.

Howdy Doodee
Apr 06, 2009
06:26 PM

If Detroit passes on Stafford, it would be best to draft 2 OT first round, let it roll with culpepper and draft a QB next year who will have a better front five to protect them. Build the line and they will come.

Packer Pete
Apr 06, 2009
07:08 PM

Mr. Murder, is your breakdown on the economy as rosy as your Lion breakdown? I enjoyed reading your post, but I think the Lions will have a slow recovery also.

Brett(NJ)
Apr 06, 2009
07:33 PM

If i'm the Lions, I try and pry Brady Quinn from the Brown for their 2nd Round Pick(33rd overall). The Lions are in a real tough spot with the #1 overall pick, if they take Stafford and he busts, they may never fully recover, they really can't afford another high draft bust.

Here's what I do in the 1st 3 Rounds if i'm the Lions...

#1- OT Jason Smith Baylor

#20- Trade back about 5-10 spots and pick up additional high-mid 2nd.

#25-30- CB Darius Butler UConn

#33- Trade for QB Brady Quinn

2nd aquired from trade down- DT Evander Hood Missouri

3rd Rd- TE Shawn Nelson Southern Miss

Late 3rd- FS Rashad Johnson Alabama/Darcel Mcbath Texas Tech

Scott M.
Apr 06, 2009
08:26 PM

If Detroit is really going to turn this thing around, we're going to see it in this draft. They need to throw conventional wisdom out the window and focus their first three picks on either offense or defense. They already have key pieces on both sides of the ball - finish a side to get competitive this year and rebuild the other side next year.

If they're going to take a QB, that's fine to take Stafford - I don't like him but I'm no good at projecting college QBs anyways. Take Stafford at #1, take whichever Tackle is left at #20 because even Beatty could start in Detroit. Take Nelson at the top of the second because he ain't going to be there later. With what they already have, they would have a complete and potentially potent offense at this point and Stafford would have the pieces necessary to have a chance.

If they want to go D, take Curry at #1 to round out an awesome LB corps. Pray for Sean Smith to be there at #20 but if he isn't, DJ Moore should be to give you three good DBs plus a young playmaker in the backfield. If Marks doesn't fall to the second, look at Ziggy Hood or Ron Brace to line up alongside ole Grady to keep the O-line off your backers and you should have a competitive defense at this point.

Either route is a perfectly viable option but if they try to mix and match, it's going to blow up in their faces and land them back at the #1 pick in the draft next year.

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