Wild Card Preview

From Matt Bowen:

I usually write my predictions for Thursday mornings at the Post, but since tomorrow is filled with college football — and most of you will be watching Iowa win the Outback Bowl — here are my picks and thoughts for NFL wild-card weekend.

NFC PICKS

Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals: Saturday, 4:30 (EST) NBC

Line: Falcons -2.5         OVER: 51

Overview:

An interesting match-up in the desert because Arizona is a different ballclub at home: 7-1 in Glendale. In saying that, you have to wonder why the Falcons are the favorites on the road with a rookie quarterback in Matt Ryan. Most likely, because that quarterback was just named the Offensive Rookie of the Year in the NFL. But his play has been just average in December. However, the Falcons live and die with the legs of running back Michael Turner, which most likely will decide the outcome of this game. ‘Zona needs to ride the small wave it created last week in a nice season-ending performance against Seattle, and Kurt Warner needs to be the quarterback we’re accustomed to seeing — slinging passes to Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin.

Key Match-Up: Michael Turner vs. Arizona Defense

The Falcons don’t want to put the game in Matt Ryan’s hands. Yes, he’s had a great season, but this is January football in the NFL — a lot different than playing in the regular season. The goal for Atlanta is to keep Warner and his two toys at wide receiver off the field as much as possible, so look for Turner to carry the ball all afternoon. Arizona ranks 16^th in the league in rushing defense at 110 yards a game. Atlanta needs at least 150.

Prediction:

Because this game is in ‘Zona, I like Warner and his offense vs. the defense of the Falcons. Warner needs to have a big game — 300-plus yards — and the Cardinals have to force Ryan to beat them through the air, which won’t happen. I am taking the Cards at home.

Arizona 31 Atlanta 28

Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings: Sunday, 4:30 (EST) FOX

Line: Eagles -3 OVER: 42

Overview:

No one believes in the Vikings. No one. They found a way to beat the Giants in a game they didn’t care about, and quarterback Tarvaris Jackson is back on the field after being benched earlier this season. Trust me, there’s a reason players are benched in this league. Yes, they have quite possibly the best football player in the league in Adrian Peterson and a defense that can create turnovers, but do they have enough? Playing in that dump called the Metrodome will help, but they have to figure out a way to absorb the Eagles’ pressure defense and the arm of Donovan McNabb, who is red-hot right now. Don’t forget about Brian Westbrook, who could be the deciding factor.

Key Match-Up: Tarvaris Jackson vs. Philly Pressure

Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Johnson has had a week to watch tape of the Vikings, and I’m sure he likes what he sees in Jackson — a guy he can blitz all day long. Jackson is a young QB, and he has the ability to use his legs to scramble, which he will need if the Vikings have issues picking up Eagles blitzers. Adrian Peterson or not, without enough protection for Jackson, this one could turn into a route.

Prediction:

I fully expect Peterson to go over the 100-yard mark, but I also expect Jackson to turn the ball over multiple times against the Philly defense. McNabb and Westbrook have good days, and Philly moves on. They are hot right now.

Philadelphia 24 Minnesota 17

AFC PICKS

Indianapolis Colts vs. San Diego Chargers: Saturday, 8:00 (EST) NBC

Line: Colts-1     OVER: 51

Overview:

Maybe the best game of the wild-card weekend takes place in San Diego, with arguably the two hottest teams in the league. Indy took the first meeting this season 23-20 in November, and I think this one will be just as close. The Chargers are still a mystery to me because it took them so long to turn it on, and then they snuck into the playoffs because of the lack of talent in the AFC West. Indy, a winner of nine in a row, comes in with my MVP of the season, Peyton Manning, playing his best football, in my view. Something has to give, because both of these clubs can score points, and both of these quarterbacks have had Pro Bowl seasons, with Philip Rivers getting snubbed in favor of Brett Favre. Great match-up in prime time.

Key Match-Up:  Philip Rivers vs. Colts’ Secondary

How well Rivers plays will be the deciding factor in this game. Forget about LT and his production, or lack thereof. This game comes down to Rivers’ ability to throw the deep ball. Expect Bob Sanders to play some man-to-man vs. Antonio Gates, and the Colts to use their Tampa 2 scheme to put a cover on top of Chris Chambers. Avoid giving up the deep ball, then let Manning and Reggie Wayne go to work against a Chargers defense that is below average, in my mind. Give up the deep ball, and the Colts can forget about that winning streak of theirs.

Prediction:

This is the perfect stage for Manning to have a monster game. With the return of Sanders, I see Indy battling the Chargers and scoring the go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter. Sound familiar?

Indianapolis 31 San Diego 27

Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins: Sunday, 1:00 (EST) CBS

Line: Ravens -3            OVER: 37.5

Overview:

Two teams I wouldn’t want to face in the post-season. Baltimore travels to south Florida to take on a physical Dolphins football team that is well-coached, relies on strong quarterback play and possesses a dangerous rushing offense. Baltimore isn’t that much different, folks. Expect this game to be the hardest-hitting contest of the weekend, and maybe the entire playoffs. The Ravens are the favorites because of their defense, but as of late, QB Joe Flacco and his offense have found ways to move the football. On the other sideline, Comeback Player of the Year Chad Pennington has had, in my opinion, his best season as a pro, but he is going to have to protect the ball with Ed Reed manning the middle of the field. And yes, I fully expect the Wildcat Offense to be in play — again — with some new wrinkles for this game.

Key Match-Up: Miami’s Wildcat Offense vs. Ravens’ Defense

You know the Dolphins will feature this offensive scheme at least 10 times during the game, maybe more — if it works. But this is the Baltimore Ravens’ defense, not the 49ers’. The Ravens need to shut down the Wildcat and force the Dolphins to line up and beat them. Coaches in this league will put a scheme on the shelf when it’s shut down, and this is what Baltimore wants. Make Chad Pennington throw the football, and go after him when he drops back to pass.

Prediction:

The Miami turnaround from 1-15 has been a great story this season, but it’s going to come to an end against Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. Flacco does enough on offense, and the Ravens’ defense gives him the football with scoring opportunities. I’m taking Baltimore.

Baltimore 20 Miami 6

Happy New Year from the National Football Post!

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