April 30, 2013 - Tony Villiotti
2013 draft expectations: By the numbers
With the draft now completed, DRAFTMETRICS has re-calculated who should expect the most help. The methodology used in calculating the expected results is as follows:
• The probability of achieving various milestones for each selection by each team was determined based on the article “Digging Deeper into Draft Probabilities”
• The probability assigned was based on when the selection occurred (i.e., in which Value Group does the selection occur) and the playing position drafted
o There are different probabilities for each playing position as indicated in “Digging Deeper into Draft Probabilities”
• The probability of success was converted into number of players
o A 50% chance of a player achieving a milestone equals
