NFL Draft: Is it really that simple?
“NFL Draft math is simple: Stockpile picks for more shots at a jackpot.”
But is the strategy really that simple? Of course a team would like to turn unwanted or unneeded players into draft choices and a team with a surplus of selections would like to turn them into earlier and more selections. But beyond such cases there is considerable debate, both about the strategy and ESPN’s meaning. For example, did they really mean to say stockpile high draft choices or all draft picks? In short, I do not agree that formulating the right draft approach is all that simple. The key is to be opportunistic and to always make the higher value decision. Also, the probabilities play such a large role that it is also difficult to ignore the “luck factor” in a team’s success. Even give the luck issue, though, it is the ability to evaluate talent that is the differentiator among teams. This article will explore various aspects of draft strategy. We will keep it simple and do the analysis by draft round rather than the Draft Ranges we prefer. Since it is also highly likely that the answers will differ depending on the metrics used, we will provide multiple answers as appropriate. Kickers are excluded from the analysis for comparability reasons. The analysis was conducted for a 10-year period and includes players drafted from 2005 through 2014. What Is a First Round Pick Really Worth? First, let us take ESPN’s statement to the extreme. What if you had a first round selection and wanted to get the maximum possible number of picks in exchange. How many later picks could you possibly acquire? This article considers only historical trade information and individual trades that are straightforward (e.g., no trades where a first plus another pick is traded cases when a player is involved and trades involving selections for the subsequent year, etc.).




- 80% of All Pro and Pro Bowl selections are from the first three rounds
- 50% of All Pro and Pro Bowl selections come from the first round
- Setting the bar lower, nearly 70% of games started come from players drafted in the first three rounds
- 31 extra third-round selections were handed out as compensatory picks
- Four picks were lost by penalty (Broncos, Patriots, Saints (2) )
- Four selections (Redskins picking Jeremy Jarmon, Browns selecting Josh Gordon, 49ers picking Ahmad Brooks and Raiders taking Terrelle Pryor) were used in the supplemental draft
- Despite losing a 1st round pick as a penalty for Spygate, the Patriots are tied with the Rams as having the most selections
- Three of the Rams extra selections come from the RG3 trade
- The Patriots extra selections came from trading players for selections (Deion Branch, Mike Vrabel, Matt Cassel) and trading down and accumulating extra picks
- The Patriots record is not spotless, though
- They traded up to take WR Chad Jackson while Greg Jennings was selected at the position they traded out of
- Other players like Carl Nicks, Joe Staley, Clay Matthews and Darryl Washington slipped through their hands in trade-down transactions
- The Seahawks lost six draft choices in the first three rounds through the acquisition of Deion Branch, Nate Burleson, John Carlson, Percy Harvin and Charlie Whitehurst
- The Saints lost two second-round selections through Bountygate and did not receive any compensatory picks
- They used high selections to move up and take Jamaal Brown and Jahri Evans
- The Saints ranked last in number of picks in rounds 4 through 7
- Besides the RG3 trade (which may or may not work out), the Redskins wasted high picks on Jason Taylor (waived after one season) and T J Duckett (38 carries for the Redskins)

