What to expect on Day 3 of the NFL Draft
The 2013 draft grinds to a halt today with 157 selections in rounds four through seven. While there are always success stories that come out of the late rounds, the chances of drafting a long-term starter pretty slim. The chances of success with a drafted player continue to decrease as the draft progresses.
The draft unfolds as follows:
• All the selections in round four have the same probability of success as the last ten picks in round three.
• Round five is split into two almost equal parts.
o The first 16 selections in round five have the same chance of success as the round four selections
o The remainder of the round five selections have a lower rate of success than the selections in the first half of the round
• Round six is also split almost equally
o The first half of round six has the same rate of success as the selections in the second half of round 5
o There is a drop-off in success in the second half of round 6
• All of the round seven selections have the same rate of success as the selections in the second half of round six. The following table reflects these splits and also provides the actual probabilities of achieving the selected milestones.
The next table shows the difference in achieving milestones for all playing positions for the combined rounds four through seven. Pro Bowl and All Pro selections are omitted from this table because of the small number of such selections.
Running backs and wide receivers tend to be the least productive late round selections. Offensive linemen and defensive ends tend to be the most productive, but all the rates are low.