What to expect on Day 3 of the NFL Draft

The 2013 draft grinds to a halt today with 157 selections in rounds four through seven. While there are always success stories that come out of the late rounds, the chances of drafting a long-term starter pretty slim. The chances of success with a drafted player continue to decrease as the draft progresses.

The draft unfolds as follows:
• All the selections in round four have the same probability of success as the last ten picks in round three.
• Round five is split into two almost equal parts.

o The first 16 selections in round five have the same chance of success as the round four selections
o The remainder of the round five selections have a lower rate of success than the selections in the first half of the round

• Round six is also split almost equally
o The first half of round six has the same rate of success as the selections in the second half of round 5
o There is a drop-off in success in the second half of round 6

• All of the round seven selections have the same rate of success as the selections in the second half of round six. The following table reflects these splits and also provides the actual probabilities of achieving the selected milestones.

The next table shows the difference in achieving milestones for all playing positions for the combined rounds four through seven. Pro Bowl and All Pro selections are omitted from this table because of the small number of such selections.

Running backs and wide receivers tend to be the least productive late round selections. Offensive linemen and defensive ends tend to be the most productive, but all the rates are low.

Tony is the founder of DRAFTMETRICS.COM can be e-mailed at draftmetrics@gmail.com and followed on Twitter @draftmetrics

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Oct 28th, 8:20 PM

Green Bay +3.5 -108

Arizona -3.5 -108

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Oct 31st, 1:00 PM

LA Rams -14 -111

Houston +14 -111

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Oct 31st, 1:00 PM

San Francisco -3.5 -111

Chicago +3.5 -111

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Oct 31st, 1:00 PM

Miami +11.5 -112

Buffalo -11.5 -112

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Oct 31st, 1:00 PM

Cincinnati -4.5 -115

NY Jets +4.5 -115

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Oct 31st, 1:00 PM

Tennessee +2.5 -111

Indianapolis -2.5 -111

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Oct 31st, 1:00 PM

Pittsburgh +3 -105

Cleveland -3 -105

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Oct 31st, 1:00 PM

Philadelphia -4 -111

Detroit +4 -111

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Oct 31st, 1:00 PM

Carolina +2.5 -111

Atlanta -2.5 -111

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Oct 31st, 4:05 PM

New England +5.5 -110

LA Chargers -5.5 -110

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Oct 31st, 4:05 PM

Jacksonville +3.5 -112

Seattle -3.5 -112

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Oct 31st, 4:25 PM

Washington +3.5 -116

Denver -3.5 -116

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Oct 31st, 4:25 PM

Tampa Bay -4 -111

New Orleans +4 -111

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Oct 31st, 8:20 PM

Dallas -2.5 -110

Minnesota +2.5 -110

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Nov 1st, 8:15 PM

NY Giants +10.5 -111

Kansas City -10.5 -111

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Nov 4th, 8:20 PM

NY Jets +14.5 -110

Indianapolis -14.5 -110

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