5 early point spreads to keep an eye on
We’ve been tracking the line movements for the 13 NFL games scheduled for Week 7 and have come across some interesting information in the process. The following five point spreads have experienced some of the most movement since opening at the Las Vegas Hilton Sunday evening.
To track the lines or see what the betting public is up to, check out the NFP Sportsbook Sniper.
Last week’s record: 3-2 (6-4 overall)
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (4-1, 1-1 road) at NEW YORK JETS (3-3, 3-0 home)
Time: 1:00pm eastern
Opening line: Jets -1.5
Current line: Chargers -1.5 (3-point swing)
Current betting patterns: 69% of bets placed are on San Diego
Analysis: The Chargers may be 1-5 against the spread in their last six meetings with the Jets, but this is not the same New York team we remember from the last two years. Rex Ryan’s defense currently ranks 28th in the league against the run, while the San Diego rushing attack ranks 9th. Quarterback Mark Sanchez’s inability to consistently move the sticks will be the difference in this one and don’t forget that Pro Bowl tight end Antonio Gates is expected to make his return after sitting out the last few games with a foot injury.
Interesting trend: The Jets are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games overall, while the Chargers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a road favorite of 0.5-3.0.
Pick: San Diego -1.5
CHICAGO BEARS (3-3, 0-2 road) at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (4-2, 3-1 home)
Time: 1:00pm eastern (London)
Opening line: Buccaneers -1.5
Current line: Bears -1 (2.5-point swing)
Current betting patterns: 65% of bets placed are on the Bears
Analysis: The Buccaneers played in the London game two years ago, but apparently that had no effect on early bettors, who came out firing on Jay Cutler and the Bears. Tampa Bay is 3-3 against the spread this season while Chicago is 2-4, but keep in mind that the Bears are 1-4 against the spread in their last five meetings with the Bucs. To be honest with you, I have no idea why the Bears are getting so much early love.
Interesting trend: Chicago is 1-4 against the spread in their last five games overall, while Tampa Bay is 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as an underdog.
Pick: Tampa Bay +1
WASHINGTON REDSKINS (3-2, 1-1 road) at CAROLINA PANTHERS (1-5, 1-2 home)
Time: 1:00pm eastern
Opening line: O/U 45
Current line: O/U 43
Current betting patterns: 64% of bets placed are on the OVER
Analysis: The public loves overs, which is why it shouldn’t come as a surprise to see that 64% of the bets already placed are backing a lot of points to be scored in this one. What is surprising is that despite the early action on the over, the line has dropped by two points. That may have something to do with the fact that the under is 4-1 in the five games the Redskins have played this season. In addition, the under is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings between these two teams.
Interesting trend: The under is 7-1 in the Redskins’ last eight games on grass and 10-2 in the Panthers’ last 12 games played in Week 7.
Pick: UNDER 43
ST. LOUIS RAMS (0-5, 0-2 road) at DALLAS COWBOYS (2-3, 1-1 home)
Time: 4:15pm eastern
Opening line: Cowboys -10.5
Current line: Cowboys -12 (1.5-point swing)
Current betting patterns: 69% of bets placed are on the Cowboys
Analysis: The Rams’ offense is averaging a pathetic 9.8 points per game so far this season (32nd in NFL), which is big reason why the team is 0-5 against the spread. On the other side of the field sits a Dallas Cowboys defense that is surrendering just 307.6 total yards per game (5th in NFL), which is down from the 351.8 yards per game (23rd in NFL) the team gave up on average in 2010. Credit new defensive coordinator Rob Ryan, who will likely bring the heat on Sunday against a banged-up Sam Bradford.
Interesting trend: St. Louis is 0-6 against the spread in their last six games overall, 0-4 ATS in their last four road games and 0-5 ATS in their last five games against NFC opponents.
Pick: Dallas -12
DENVER BRONCOS (1-4, 0-2 road) at MIAMI DOLPHINS (0-5, 0-2 home)
Time: 1:00pm eastern
Opening line: Miami -3
Current line: Miami -1.5 (1.5-point swing)
Current betting patterns: 84% of bets placed are on the Broncos
Analysis: T-E-B-O-W. Whether you like him or not, the guy has his teammates buying into what he can do on the football field. Remember, Tebow played his college ball in Gainesville and his 2008 national championship team will be honored at Sun Life Stadium this Sunday, meaning the Broncos will likely have more fans in attendance than the 0-5 Dolphins, who currently rank 30th in the NFL in red zone scoring efficiency. Keep in mind that the underdog is 4-0 against the spread in the last four meetings between these two teams.
Interesting trend: Miami is 0-4-1 against the spread this season and is 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. As if that wasn’t enough, be advised that the Fish are 1-9 at home over the last two seasons. So much for home field advantage.
Pick: Denver +1.5
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