5 interesting point spreads to keep an eye on
We’ve been tracking the line movements for the 13 NFL games scheduled for Week 5 and have come across some interesting information in the process. The following five games have experienced some of the most movement since opening at the Las Vegas Hilton Sunday evening.
To track the lines or see what the betting public is up to, check out the NFP Sportsbook Sniper.
TENNESSEE TITANS (3-1) at PITTSBURGH STEELERS (2-2)
Time: 1:00pm eastern
Opening line: Steelers -6.5
Current line: Steelers -3 (3.5-point swing)
Current betting patterns: 65% of bets placed are on Tennessee
Analysis: Outside of a 24-0 victory over a terrible Seattle road team, the Steelers have been very unimpressive this season. Ben Roethlisberger is banged up, the offensive line is in shambles and Pro Bowler James Harrison has already been ruled out for Sunday. Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball sits a Titans football team that has won three straight games and currently ranks 7th in the NFL in total defense. No Week 5 line has moved more over the last four days than this one. Remember, the Steelers are 1-3 against the spread this season.
Interesting trend: The underdog is 7-1 against the spread in the last eight meetings between these two teams.
Midweek pick: Titans +3
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (3-1) at DENVER BRONCOS (1-3)
Time: 4:15pm eastern
Opening line: Chargers -6
Current line: Chargers -4 (2-point swing)
Current betting patterns: 86% of bets placed are on San Diego
Analysis: The same thing that’s going on here happened to the Chargers in Week 4 as well. San Diego opened as a 9-point favorite against the Miami Dolphins and the line was quickly bet down to San Diego -7, before closing at SD -6.5. However, in this instance we see the line moving away from the Chargers despite the fact that a staggering 86% of the bets placed are backing San Diego. That means the big money that’s coming in early is all over Denver. Why else would the line be moving towards the Broncos?
Interesting trend: The Chargers are 7-1-2 against the spread in the last ten meetings between these two teams.
Midweek pick: Chargers -4
GREEN BAY PACKERS (4-0) at ATLANTA FALCONS (2-2)
Time: 8:30pm eastern (Sunday night)
Opening line: Packers -4
Current line: Packers -6 (2-point swing)
Current betting patterns: 88% of bets placed are on Green Bay
Analysis: Nothing shocking here. The Packers smoked the Falcons 48-21 in Atlanta during the Divisional Round of the playoffs last season and are off to a red-hot 4-0 start in 2011. Meanwhile, the Falcons have underperformed this year and are just 1-3 against the spread through four games. Be advised that the public is going to be all over Green Bay come kickoff. The only question is, will the books allow this line to get past GB -7?
Interesting trend: The Falcons are 4-16-1 against the spread in their last 21 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Midweek pick: Packers -6
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (1-3) at BUFFALO BILLS (3-1)
Time: 1:00pm eastern
Opening line: Over/Under 48.5
Current line: Over/Under 50 (1.5-point swing)
Current betting patterns: 87% of bets placed are on the OVER
Analysis: This isn’t rocket science, people. Here’s what you need to know:
1. Buffalo ranks 4th in the NFL in scoring (33.2 pts/gm)
2. Philadelphia ranks 10th in the NFL in scoring (25.2 pts/gm)
3. Buffalo ranks 16th in the NFL in points allowed (24.0 pts/gm)
4. Philadelphia ranks 23rd in the NFL in points allowed (25.2 pts/gm)
5. The OVER is 4-0 in Buffalo’s four games this season.
6. The OVER is 3-1 in Philadelphia’s four games this season.
Interesting trend: The OVER is 10-1 in Philadelphia’s last 11 road games and 5-0 in Buffalo’s last five games overall.
Midweek pick: OVER 50 (and I like this one BIG)
CHICAGO BEARS (2-2) at DETROIT LIONS (4-0)
Time: 8:35pm eastern (Monday night)
Opening line: Lions -6
Current line: Lions -5 (1-point swing)
Current betting patterns: 66% of bets placed are on the Lions
Analysis: The Lions return to Monday night football in Week 5 for the first time in a decade, so you know Ford Field will be rocking in support of their undefeated and suddenly surging football team. However, outside of a Week 2 blowout win over a lifeless Kansas City team, Detroit’s three other wins this season have come by an average of just 4.6 points. Jim Schwartz’s crew is playing excellent football, but this is a very big spread for a primetime divisional showdown.
Interesting trend: Road team is 5-2 against the spread in the last seven meetings between these two teams, while the underdog is 10-4 against the spread in the last 14 meetings between these two teams.
Midweek pick: Bears +5
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