October 16, 2015 - Michael Freas
DFS Corner: Draft Kings Week 6 Plays
Welcome back for another week of National Football Post's DFS Corner. Last week, we saw the high scoring return to the NFL and the fantasy community. I chose a bad week to fade Devonta Freeman as he continues to surpass my expectations and has been one of the most dominant fantasy players so far this year. Before we get into the nitty-gritty, here are the teams on a bye this week and some notable player injuries to look out for. Week 6 Byes: Dallas Cowboys, Oakland Raiders, St. Louis Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers Notable Injuries: Odell Beckham - Hamstring, Justin Forsett- Ankle Sprain, Blake Bortles- AC Joint, Andrew Luck- Shoulder Bruise, Marshawn Lynch- Hamstring Strain, Julio Jones (Hamstring Strain), and Alshon Jeffrey (Hamstring Strain) Quarterback Plays Top Priced Options Tom Brady ($8,100) @ Indianapolis Colts will be a staple in a lot of my cash game lineups. This is a game I am sure the Patriots have had circled on their calendars since the Deflate Gate fiasco broke last year. Vegas is predicting this game to have the highest O/U with 55 points with the Pats a -7.5 favorite with a projected score total of 31. The Colts are currently 21st against QB's this season and just let Hoyer/Mallet throw for 362 passing yards and 2 TDs last week. I expect Brady to be a very safe play this week. Mid Priced Options Carson Palmer ($6,600) @ Pittsburgh Steelers will be another cash game QB of mine this week. The O/U is set for 44 with the Cards projected to put up roughly 24 points and the Steelers defense is currently ranked 19th against QBs and is allowing 257 passing yards per game. Palmer got some early rest last week due to a huge lead, but still threw for 161 yards and 3 TDs. He is a safe cash game play this week as I expect the Cardinals to keep rolling. Sam Bradford ($6,000) vs. New York Giants will also be another cash game QB I look to target this week. After starting the year off slowly, Bradford has bounced back the past two weeks with over 600 passing yards and 5 TDs. Not to mention he gave away 2 more scoring opportunities with 2 redzone interceptions last week. He seems to be getting a better grip on Chip Kelly's offense and has a very favorable matchup against a banged up secondary. This is the Monday Night game, and it is the 2nd highest O/U with a total of 50 with the Eagles projected to put up roughly 28 as they are -3.5 favorites. The Giants defense currently ranks 25th against QBs this year and are allowing a league high 304 passing yards per game. Low Priced Options Andy Dalton ($5,700) @ Buffalo Bills will be another QB I target this week as Dalton has been one of the biggest surprises so far this fantasy season. On the year, Dalton has thrown for 1,518 yards to go along with 11 TDs and 2 interceptions yet he is the 14th ranked QB according to price this week. He has the benefit of facing a Bills defense that is currently ranked 24th against the pass and allowing over 274 passing yards per game. The Bills have allowed 10 passing TDs this year, which is the 4th most in the NFL and are ranked 27th against fantasy QBs this year. The Bills' defense is very good against the run (7th against fantasy RBs), so I expect Hue Jackson to dial up the passing in this one. Colin Kaepernick ($5,000) vs. Baltimore Ravens is another QB I will stream this week but only in GPP's and tournaments. I can't believe I am even writing that, but I am willing to gamble on Kaep after he played extremely well on the road against the Giants last week putting up 2 TDs and 262 yards through the air. But, as well as he played, the real reason I am targeting him is because of how poorly the Ravens' defense has played this year. The Ravens just allowed Josh McCown to set a franchise record for most passing yards in a game with 457 yards and 2 TDs. The Ravens are now allowing opposing QBs to throw for 287 passing yards per game (ranked 25th) and are ranked 31st against fantasy QBs. This will also be the Ravens 3rd west coast game this year, and I am confident Kaep can get it done through the air and the ground to easily exceed his $5k value. Running Back Plays High Priced Options Matt Forte ($7,100) @ Detroit Lions will be one of the higher priced backs I look at this week as he is priced as the 5th highest RB, which is $1,400 dollars less than LeVeon Bell. Forte is always a solid cash game RB due to the fact that he carries a high floor as he is averaging 5 catches a game and over 20 carries. Factor that with the fact the Lions are currently ranked 27th against the run allowing 126 yards per game and are tied for allowing the most rushing TDs with 8. If Jeffrey and Royal do play, that will only put less attention on Forte. Play him with confidence. Arian Foster ($7,000) @ Jacksonville Jaguars is another RB I will be targeting this week as he gets set to play the Jags defense who is currently ranked 29th against fantasy RBs this season and just let Doug Martin run all over them. I expect Foster to look better this week as he continues to gets his legs back. He received 19 carries last week to go along with 9 catches so he offers the opportunity for a high floor. I expect this to be a high scoring game as both defenses have struggled this year and Foster is one of the Texans best play makers. Medium Priced Options Dion Lewis ($5,800) @ Indianapolis Colts will be in almost of all of my lineups this weekend regardless of ownership. The Pats have absolutely shredded the Colts on the ground their last 3 games having allowed an average of 219 rushing yards to go along with 13 rushing touchdowns. Despite sharing the backfield with Blount, Lewis is heavily involved in this heavy passing offense. He offers a huge floor as he has put up no less than 15 points or roughly 3x his current price. Gio Bernard ($4,600) @ Buffalo Bills will be another player I look to target this week despite the fact that the Bills are currently ranked 7th vs opposing fantasy RBs. My rationale is that I expect the Bengals to get it done through the air which will allow Gio to garner more snaps yet again and be actively involved in the passing game. He has been the more the effective back over the past few weeks averaging 5 .5 yards per carry while running for 80 yards and catching 5 passes last week against a very good Seahawks defense. Low Priced Options Theo Riddick ($3,300) vs. Chicago Bears will either be a punt play for me to save money at this position or a GPP play this week. Abdullah is fumbling away his opportunity to be the lead back, Bell has been dealing with injuries, and Zenner is just part of that committee. The only one with a defined role on this team has been Riddick, who is quietly leading all NFL RBs with 30 receptions. If he catches 6 passes, which is his average thus far, he will already be at 2x value. With the uncertainty in the backfield, he should also get some carries. Other RB Plays I like: Charcandrick West ($4,000), Duke Johnson ( $4,500) , Eddie Lacy ($6,300) GPP, CJ Anderson ($4,500) GPP Wide Receiver Plays High Priced Options Deanadre Hopkins ($7,700) @ Jacksonville Jaguars will be my highest owned WR this week. So much for the theories of his QB (or QB's) slowing him down. Hopkins is averaging an insane 15 targets a game to go along with 115 receiving yards, both of which are league highs. Foster's resurgence in this offense should only help Hopkins cause as defense will have to account for Foster. As I mentioned early, I expect this to a back and forth high scoring game which will only benefit this target monster. Julian Edelman ($7,600) @ Indianapolis Colts will be another Patriot I have going this week ( I swear I am not a Patriots fan). He will have the benefit of not having to face Vontae Davis as Davis does not move into the slot. So I expect Edelman to be highly involved yet again as he has already accumulated 47 targets in 4 games this year and is Tom Brady's go-to man. Oh and the Colts are currently ranked 30th against fantasy WRs this year. In a game that is projected to be high scoring, Edelman provides a high floor and ceiling this week. Medium Priced Options Jeremy Maclin ($6,000) vs. Minnesota Vikings will be one of my staple plays this week simply based on sheer volume. Maclin has been a target machine over the past few weeks, and I expect that number to rise now that Charles is out for the year. His volume alone should make him a very solid cash game play this week. Allen Robinson ($5,900) and Allen Hurns ($5,000) vs. Houston Texans will both be receivers I look to mix and match amongst lineups if Bortles does play on Sunday. The Texans defense just let Matt Hasselback throw for 2 TDs and over 200 yards while battling a virus that had him in the hospital last week. Like I said above, I expect this to be high scoring game, and the game script sets up nicely for both of the WRs who are quickly becoming the Kings of "Garbage Time". At their very modest price, they should both easily reach value. Low Priced Options Eric Decker ($4,900) vs. Washington Redskins is a very sneaky, low priced wide receiver this week. I expect the Jets to pass a little more than usual this week given Washington's good play against the run. Their secondary is still banged up, and despite playing well last week vs. Atlanta, I still think New York finds a way to exploit them at home. Anquan Boldin ($4,300) vs. Baltimore Ravens will be another low price option to target this week. Boldin is coming off of a 12 target, 8 reception, 107 yard, and 1 TD game. As I mentioned earlier, the Ravens' defense is in complete disarray, and this is also Boldin's former team, so there is the revenge factor. Other WR Plays I Like: Larry Fitzgerald ($7,000), Brandon Marshall ($7,100), Jarvis Landry ($6,200) and Jamison Crowder ($3,600) Tight End Plays High Priced Options Rob Gronkowski ($7,600) @ Indianapolis Colts is your man if you want to pay his ransom. Despite being quiet the past few weeks since his Week 1 explosion, Gronk is always a threat to find the End Zone. In a high scoring game with an O/U of 55, I think a Gronk spike or two is very much a possibility. Medium Priced Options Tyler Eifert ($4,900) @ Buffalo Bills will be the mid-tier TE I play this week if I decide to fade Gronk. Leading his team with 5 TD receptions, Eifert has been one of Dalton's favorite targets in the red zone. He has 24 receptions on the year to go along with 36 targets and has become a security blanket for Andy Dalton. As I said earlier, I expect the Bengals to put up points through the air so Eifert is a great play going up against a Bills defense that currently ranks 22nd vs TEs in fantasy. Low Priced Options Zach Ertz ($2,900) vs. New York Giants will be TE I target in both a mixture of cash games and GPPs. Ertz hasn't broken out this year as most have predicted, but that might have to do with Sam Bradford's slow start and the fact that Ertz missed most of training camp and all of the preseason recovering from abdominal surgery. In a game that will be high scoring, I look for Ertz to build off his 7 targets last week and find the end zone. Oh, I also forgot to mention the Giants are currently ranked 29th against the TE. Dial him up!