November 12, 2015 - Michael Freas
DFS Corner: DraftKings Week 10 Plays
Welcome back for another week of NFP's DFS Corner. Condolences to readers who live in the state of NY and can no longer submit entries into DraftKings and FanDuel due to the Attorney General's ruling that daily fantasy is gambling. It was a very interesting decision considering FanDuel is headquartered in New York and New York contains both sites' biggest client base. It will be interesting to follow over the course of the next few months, as I am sure there will be injunctions and court rulings on the way. Putting that aside, let's get back to business for Week 10. I hope a lot of you fared better than I did last week, as this past weekend was the first time I didn't make a profit and actually took a little hit, but it's all part of the game. You should look at DraftKings as a stock or portfolio that will have some ups and downs. Last week, a lot of average players and players with suspect matchups out performed expectations. I did not see Blaine Gabbert beating the Atlanta Falcons. But I guess that's where the saying "any given Sunday" comes from. I also learned another hard lesson this past weekend, and one I should add to my DFS Commandments moving forward. I shall never enter "Multi-Entry" tournaments, as they lower your odds of winning in cash games. A greater score is needed due to the fact that it exposes you to a greater threat of sharks that use algorithms with hundreds of entries. Here are the teams on bye this weekend and Vegas O/U's for Week 10. Week 10 Byes: Atlanta Falcons, Indianapolis Colts, San Diego Chargers, San Francisco 49ers Week 10 NFL Weather Forecast
High Priced Options
Tom Brady ($8.6k) @ New York Giants: Brady was a disappointment last week (by Tom Brady standards) as he only managed to get 18.9 points, just missing the 300 yard passing bonus by 1 yard. I think the loss of Dion Lewis will hurt this offense, but it's not something to be overly concerned about. Brady gets to tee off against a New York Giants defense that is allowing the 4th most points to opposing QBs and the 2nd most passing yards. The Giants' defense just allowed Drew Brees to throw for 7 touchdowns and 505 passing yards 2 weeks ago. The one key stat to look at is the Giants lack of pass rush, as they have only generated 9 sacks all year, which is the worst in the NFL. If you give Brady time to pick you apart, he will. I expect Brady to post huge numbers against a very pedestrian defense.
[caption id="attachment_68593" align="alignleft" width="234"] One of my lineups last week[/caption]
Aaron Rodgers ($7.5k) vs. Detroit Lions: Aaron Rodgers under $8k? What is going on in the world? It's time for us to take a page out of Aaron's book and all "RELAX". Yes, the Packers offense has not looked like themselves over the past few weeks, but they also have had some really tough matchups with the Broncos and Panthers. This week, they get to face off against an NFC North weakling in the Detroit Lions who are giving up the 5th most points to opposing QBs. The last time the Lions won in Green Bay was in 1991. They have lost 24 straight games in Green Bay, and this is a very weak Lions team. I am expecting a huge bounce back game from ARod and will be pairing him with Cobb in a lot of my entries. He represents a great cash game and GPP play as he will likely be less owned than Brady. Don't be fooled by recency bias, Rodgers is a sure thing and a bet to reach 3x value in a game where they are projected to win by 11.5 points.
Mid Priced Options
I won't be playing any mid priced Quarterbacks this week due to the value and matchups the lower priced QBs offer. If I were to select any mid priced QB this week it would be Andy Dalton, as he gets to face a very weak Texans defense. Dalton has been very consistent on the season and represents a great tournament play QB this week due to his likely low ownership percentage.
Low Priced Options
Blake Bortles ($5.6k) @ Baltimore Ravens: Bortles will be a staple in many of my lineups this weekend as he is a safer streaming option at quarterback than Kirk Cousins. Bortles is coming off of a 381 passing yard, 2 TD, and 2 Int game against a very good Jets' defense last week. Bortles is facing a Baltimore Ravens' defense that is giving up an average of 22 points per game, which is the second most points to opposing QBs. Furthermore, the Ravens' pass defense ranks 32nd in the NFL, which should bode well for Bortles given his weekly volume. Bortles has had 4 straights games with multiple touchdowns, which alone allows him to achieve his value at his current price point.
Kirk Cousins ($5.2k) vs. New Orleans Saints: This selection is not for the faint of heart as Kirk Cousins is not the most consistent QB in DraftKings, but he does offer great value this week in terms of upside (has finished top 5 QB twice this season) and in terms of flexibility with salary. He gets to face the New Orleans Saints' defense that is giving up the most points to opposing QBs with over 23 a game. This pathetic Saints' defense gave up 6 touchdowns and 329 yards to Eli Manning 2 weeks ago and just allowed Marcus Mariota, with his depleted receiving corps, to throw for 329 yards and 4 touchdowns last week. Vegas has this game slated as the 2nd highest Total at 50.5, so I am not expecting much defense but a whole lot of offense. Cousins should easily reach value off pure volume alone.
Running Back Plays
Top Priced Options
Todd Gurley ($7.3k) vs. Chicago Bears: Gurley put up 89 rushing yards and 1 TD with 3 catches last week versus Minnesota. Gurley has taken the NFL by storm since he has taken over the lead back duties in St. Louis. This week, he gets to face a Bears' defense that is giving up 121 rushing yards per game, which is ranked 24th in the NFL. While the Bears have been giving up yards on the ground, they have only given up 2 rushing touchdowns all season. The Rams' offense runs through Gurley and I expect him to continue to be a force and find his way into the end zone.
Demarco Murray ($6.2k) vs. Miami Dolphins: Murray has finally made his way back on the scene as he has received over 20 touches the last 4 games. Murray finished last week 83 rushing yards, 1 TD, 6 catches and 78 receiving yards versus his former team. The Dolphins rush defense has been atrocious as they are currently ranked 31st in the NFL allowing over 141 yards per game. The Bills just ran all over Miami to the tune of 266 rushing yards and 3 TDs. Murray represents a safe cash game option due to his volume and his role in the pass game, which presents a high floor.
DeAngelo Williams ($6.5k) vs. Cleveland Browns: DeAngelo picked up right where he left last week torching the Oakland Raiders for 170 rushing yards, 2 TDs and 2 receptions for 55 yards. He now gets to face the Cleveland Browns' defense that has given up the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing running backs and giving up the most rushing yards per game with an average of 147 yards. With Landry Jones filling in for Big Ben at QB, look for the offense to run through Williams. He should be a lock in all formats if he does in fact play. Monitor his foot injury as the week goes on.
Mid Priced Options
Darren McFadden ($4.9k) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers : Is a must play in all GPP and Cash game formats this week. Since taking over the lead role in the Cowboys' backfield, RUN DMC has received over 85 carries and 397 total yards over his last 3 games. Those worried about Christine Michael cutting into his snaps should be at ease as Michael didn't receive 1 carry in last week's Sunday night showdown versus the Eagles. Although the Eagles' defense held DMC to only 1 catch, he was able to still 122 total yards against a very good Eagles' run defense. Look for the Cowboys to continue to feature DMC as a focal point of this offense against PFF's 4th worst run defense in the Bucs.
Jeremy Langford ($4.8k) vs. St. Louis Rams: What a first start for the rookie. Langford finished his night with 72 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD, and 3 catches for 72 yards. This is a tough matchup for Langford as the Rams are only allowing 104 rushing yards per game, which is 13th best in the NFL. But they did just let the Vikings run for 160 yards on them, and Langford's value comes more from his price and role in this offense. He should receive the majority of the backfield touches yet again and be active in the passing game. His volume alone should allow him to reach value.
Low Priced Options
Theo Riddick ($3.3k) @ Green Bay Packers : Riddick is a great punt play this week if you are trying to save some money. The pass catching specialist for the Lions has a carved out role in this offense. Vegas predicts the Lions to lose by over 11.5 points, which is the perfect game script for Riddick. If the Lions get behind, look for Riddick's snaps to increase as the Lions try and play catch up. The garbage time scat back should easily reach 3x value and is an excellent punt play.
Wide Receiver Plays
High Priced Options
DeAndre Hopkins ($8.7k) @ Cincinnati Bengals: A Monday night game coming off a bye is not the best matchup, but it doesn't matter due to Hopkins's volume and role in this offense. Vegas is predicting the Bengals to win by over 10.5. If that is the case, then the game script plays well for Hopkins. The Texans will be down and playing catch up, which should lead to plenty of targets and garbage time points for Hopkins.
Demaryius Thomas ($7.4k) vs. Kansas City Chiefs: DT killed me last week. He was one of the main reasons some of my lineups came up short. Yet, against my better judgement, I am sticking with him as he gets to face the Kansas City Chiefs' defense that is allowing the most points to opposing fantasy WRs. DT is a #1 WR that amasses over 10 targets a game, and we are getting him at a severely reduced price here and it's on us to take advantage of it. Forget last week, roll with DT, and reap the benefits.
Mid Priced Options
Alshon Jeffrey ($7.1k) @ St. Louis Rams: If Monday night's game taught us anything, it's that Jeffrey is essentially matchup proof given the volume he receives from Cutler. Janoris Jenkins is developing into a very solid NFL cornerback, but Jeffrey has a huge height advantage here and the volume needed to win in DFS.
Randall Cobb ($6.7k) vs. Detroit Lions: He will be a staple play of mine this week, and I will certainly stack him and Rodgers in multipliers and tournaments. Cobb bounced back last week like I had hoped and has another favorable matchup this week vs the Lions who are giving up the 11th most points to opposing WRs. Cobb will most likely draw coverage from Lions' Nickel corners Diggs and Wilson, which should present another extremely favorable matchup for Cobb.
Allen Robinson ($6.7k) @ Baltimore Ravens: Allen Robinson, or as I refer to him "Baby Dez", broke onto the scene this year and been one of the most consistent WRs since. I look for him to continue this trend as he gets to go up against a Ravens' defense that is allowing the 2nd most points to opposing wide receivers. Robinson fared very well last week in a matchup on Revis Island where he was able pull in 6 catches for over 121 yards. Facing off versus the Ravens' struggling corners in Jimmy Smith and Shareece Wright, I expect Robinson to reach his 3x value mark as well as Allen Hurns.
Low Priced Options
Stefon Diggs ($5.1k) @ Oakland Raiders: Diggs had his worst game as a pro last week as Janoris Jenkins limited him to 3 catches for 42 yards. But we are expecting a bounce back game from Diggs, as he has an extremely favorable matchup vs the Raiders. The Raiders are allowing the second most receiving yards to opposing WRs, and Diggs will most likely see coverage from either Hayden or Amerson. This tandem just allowed Antonio Brown to grab 17 balls to the tune on 284 yards. Many players and analysts have compared Diggs's style of play to Brown's, and considering Diggs has been nothing short of a stud prior to last week's game, this is a very appealing matchup. Let people be afraid of Diggs after last week, and lock him in your lineups this weekend if Bridgewater does in fact play.
Brandon LaFell ($4.1k) @ New York Giants: LaFell burst back onto the scene last week in a big way. He will now be called upon even more with the loss of pass catching specialist Dion Lewis. As I mentioned above, the Giants' defense doesn't get any pressure. I expect Brady to pick them apart this week, and look for LaFell to post another solid game.
Tight End Plays
Rob Gronkowski ($8k) @ New York Giants: Gronk was a HUGE disappointment last week in a very enticing matchup vs the Redskins. Gronk was a staple in a lot of my lineups and barely made it over 1X his value. Despite the damage he did to me last week, I am going all on in on Gronk again as he gets to face off against a New York Giants defense that is allowing the most points to opposing tight ends. I think Brady, Gronk and the Patriots bounce back this week in a game which Vegas has pegged as their highest total with 54.5. I expect Gronk to be Brady's security blanket with the loss of Dion Lewis and for the Pats to exploit the Giants' weakness, which may have only gotten weaker with the loss of Jon Beason.
Jordan Reed ($4.6k) vs. New Orleans Saints: If I am not paying up for Gronk or stacking him with Brady, I am downgrading down and rolling with Jordan Reed in a juicy matchup vs the New Orleans Saints. As mentioned above, the Saints & Redskins game is being pinned as the 2nd highest total by Vegas with an O/U of 50.5. Reed has been the most consistent option for this Redskins aerial attack as he is 2nd in receptions with 38 on the season and leads the team with 4 touchdowns. There probably won't be much defense in this game as the Saints have allowed an absurd 10 touchdowns the last 2 games.
Gary "Peoples Champ" Barnidge ($4.8k) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: This selection is solely based on if Josh McCown plays for the Browns. Barnidge and McCown have had a great connection all year and he has been McCown's security blanket. If McCown plays, suit up Barnidge as the Steelers have already given up 7 touchdowns to opposing tight ends on the year.
Denver Broncos ($3.4k) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Green Bay Packers ($3.2k) vs. Detroit Lions
Oakland Raiders ($2.1k) vs. Minnesota Vikings
I hope this article helps all of you as begin to make your cash game and GPP lineups for this upcoming weekend. This article should provide you with a solid foundation as you do your research for your lineups. Please feel free to comment below with any questions or suggestions for this article in the future. I am here to try and provide you with my favored plays for the upcoming weekend. If you are interested in playing H2H games, my username is BigMikefromPhilly on Draftkings. I am also in the process of setting up a league each weekend for NFP's DFS Corner, so if interested, please let me know and I will post the link. Good luck!
|New York Jets||Buffalo Bills||NYJ -2.5||43||Thurs. Nov 12th||8:25pm|
|Green Bay Packers||Detroit Lions||GB -11.5||48||Sun. Nov 15th||1pm|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||Dallas Cowboys||TB -1.5||43||Sun. Nov 15th||1pm|
|Tennessee Titans||Carolina Panthers||CAR -4.5||43.5||Sun. Nov 15th||1pm|
|St. Louis Rams||Chicago Bears||STL -7||42.5||Sun. Nov 15th||1pm|
|Washington Redskins||New Orleans Saints||NO -1||50.5||Sun. Nov 15th||1pm|
|Philadelphia Eagles||Miami Dolphins||PHI -6||47||Sun. Nov 15th||1pm|
|Pittsburgh Steelers||Cleveland Browns||PIT -4.5||41||Sun. Nov 15th||1pm|
|Baltimore Ravens||Jacksonville Jaguars||BAL -5.5||48||Sun. Nov 15th||1pm|
|Oakland Raiders||Minnesota Vikings||OAK -3||44||Sun. Nov 15th||4:05pm|
|New York Giants||New England Patriots||NE -7||54.5||Sun. Nov 15th||4:25pm|
|Denver Broncos||Kansas City Chiefs||DEN -6.5||42||Sun. Nov 15th||4:25pm|
|Seattle Seahawks||Arizona Cardinals||SEA -3||45||Sun. Nov 15th||8:30pm|
|Cincinnati Bengals||Houston Texans||CIN -10.5||47.5||Mon. Nov 16th||8:30pm|