December 03, 2015 - Michael Freas
DFS Corner: DraftKings Week 13 Plays
Welcome back everyone for another week of NFP's DFS Corner. I hope you were able to cash in last week with some of my recommendations and took my play of the week in Adrian Peterson who went off to the sound of 35 points on DraftKings. For those of you who haven’t signed up for DraftKings yet and would like to, sign up here Please find this weeks weather report for all the games here Here are Vegas’s week 13 Spreads and Game Totals
Cash Game Staples
Cam Newton ($7,400) @ New Orleans Saints: Cam will most likely be the highest owned QB this week and for good reason. The Saints are allowing the most points to opposing QBs with an average of 25 points per game. They have given up 30 passing touchdowns on the year while giving up of over 298 passing yards per game. Cam will be a staple cash game QB of mine this week.
Ben Roethlisberger ($6,600) vs. Indianapolis Colts: Not sure why Big Ben isn't priced higher this week, as he has exceed 25 points in each of his last 3 contests including a great game vs a strong Seattle defense on the road last week. This selection obviously depends on if Big Ben completes the NFL Concussion protocol, as he already been cleared to practice Wednesday. If he does play, he gets a home matchup versus a very average Colts defense that has already given up 20 passing touchdowns on the year and over 282 passing yards per game. Vontae Davis hasn't been playing to his standards and might be limited with a hamstring injury this week and opposite corner Greg Toler has a bottom 10 cornerback grade according to PFF. Also, let's not forget the game vs. the Colts last year when Big Ben threw for 522 yards and 6 touchdowns...
Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5,200) @ New York Giants: Fitzpatrick delivered big last week with a 4 TD performance vs. Miami. He should be in store for another big week as he faces off against the New York Giants. The Giants' defense is allowing the 5th most points to opposing QBs with over 20 points a game. The Giants, on average, are giving up over 315 passing yards per game (3 bonus points if you pass for over 3oo yards) and have allowed 20 passing touchdowns or 1.81 per game.
Other Cash Game/ Multiplier Options
Marcus Mariota ($5,500) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jaguars are giving up the 4th most points to opposing QBs with an average of 20.99 points per game. They have given up 21 touchdowns through the air and are letting opposing QBs throw for over 281 yards per game. Marcus Mariota has achieved 2x value over 78% of the time and has exceed 3x value over 67% of the time.
Matt Hasselback ($5,300) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: I don't think I ever thought I would be writing this at any point this year but here we are. Hasselback is a very cheap option at $5.3k and he is facing a Steelers' defense that is giving up the 6th most points to opposing QBs with over 20 points a game. The Steelers have given up 22 touchdowns through the air for an average of 2 passing touchdowns per game to go along with over 299 passing yards allowed per game.
Carson Palmer ($6,700) @ St. Louis: Palmer was a bit of a disappointment last week and faces what most see as a very tough defense in St. Louis. Both of these factors will lead to low ownership for Palmer which is great for tournaments. Palmer has been one of the most consistent QBs all year reaching 2x value 100% of the time and achieving 3x value
Other Tournament Gambles: Ryan Tannehill ($5,300) vs. Baltimore Ravens, Jay Cutler ($5,100) vs. San Francisco 49ers
Running Back Plays
Cash Game Staples
The only high priced running back I will consider taking this week is Adrian Peterson ($6,700) vs. Seattle Seahawks. AP is on a 4 game touchdown steak and is coming fresh off a 35 point game. While the matchup isn't as appealing, Seattle's defense is more vulnerable on the road than at home. AP went down $700 from last week so at his current salary, he does provide value. I will certainly take him in a few cash games, and he does represent a nice tournament option as most people will be scared away by Seattle's defense and the value at the running back position this week.
Doug Martin ($5,900) vs. Atlanta Falcons: I continue to see analysts and fans steer clear of running backs playing the Atlanta Falcons due to their perception as a good running defense since they are only letting up over 81 rushing yards per game. While that is true, the rushing yards don't tell the whole story. Atlanta is actually giving up the most points to opposing running backs with an average of 30 points per game. They are tied with Detroit for giving up the most rushing touchdowns per game with 12, so teams are averaging over 1 rushing touchdown a week on them. Furthermore, they have given up the most receptions to opposing running backs with over 83 receptions on the year or 7.5 catches per game to go along with over 60 receiving yards.
DeAngelo Williams ($5,600) vs. Indianapolis Colts: DeAneglo got back on track last week with a very nice game against Seattle. This week he gets to face a Colts defense who has been average against the run allowing 96 rushing yards per game and just under 5 receptions per game to opposing RBs. There are 11 running backs priced ahead of him which makes him excellent value this week. The Colts are going to have their hands full trying to stop Pittsburgh's aerial attack which should open up some running lanes for Williams.
Javorius Allen ($5,400) @ Miami Dolphins: Buck Allen had a great debut on Monday night versus a putrid Cleveland Browns defense. This week he gets to face a Miami Dolphins' defense that is giving up the 5th most points a game to opposing running backs. The Dolphins are giving up 119 rushing yards per game and opposing running backs are averaging just under 4.5 catches per game. They have given up 9 rushing touchdowns on the year, and I fully expect the Ravens to ride Allen again this game.
David Johnson ($3,400) @ St. Louis Rams: David Johnson is another great value play this week, with Chris Johnson being placed on short term IR and Ellington's status in question. The Rams are surprisingly giving up the 11th most points to opposing running backs and are not the same team when Ogletree and Quinn aren't in the lineup. Opposing running backs are averaging 91 rushing yards, 5.91 catches and 57 receiving yards per game. Don't overthink this one, David Johnson is the top back in a high powered offense at a minimum price. Don't overthink this one.
Other Cash/Multiplier Game Options
CJ Anderson ($3,500) @ San Diego Chargers: CJ Anderson owners can finally rejoice after last weeks game. Anderson has been a colossal disappointment this year but he as well as the entire Denver ground game has begun to turn things around with Brock under center. This week Anderson gets to face off against a Chargers' defense that is giving up the 2nd most points to opposing running backs with them averaging just under 30 points per game. The Chargers have given up 10 rushing touchdowns on the year to go along with 110 rushing yards per game. To make matters worse opposing running backs are also averaging 5.5 catches per game with over 57 receiving yards per game. If Anderson and Hillman split time, Anderson has been receiving more touches and presents a dirt cheap price at $3.5k.
Matt Forte ($6,900) vs. San Francisco 49ers, Shaun Draughn ($4,000) @ Chicago Bears, LeSean McCoy ($5,700) vs. Houston
Wide Receiver Plays
Cash Game Staples
It's hard not to mention the 4 studs at the top on a weekly basis as all for the most part are matchup proof but this week all 4 have very appealing matchups. I have a higher number of Wide Receivers this week due to a full slate of games and a lot of appealing matchups and value plays.
Julio Jones ($9,000) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Julio Jones has 29 catches, 442 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns in his last 3 games against the Bucs. Furthermore, he has the 3rd best matchup advantage according to PFF as he should see coverage from Jude Adjei-Barimah.
Odell Beckham Jr. ($8,900) vs. New York Jets: OBJ came up big for us last week and delivered yet again. This week he gets a good matchup versus a Jet's defense that is giving up the 10th most fantasy points to opposing receivers. To make matters worse, it does not look like Darrelle Revis is going to play as he is still sidelined with a concussion. If Revis is a no go, I think I like OBJ as my top high priced WR option.
Deandre Hopkins ($8,800) vs. Buffalo Bills: Hopkins for the first time all year was a DFS disappointment in a great matchup. This week he gets to face a Buffalo defense that just let Jeremy Maclin have a day. The Bills are allowing the 7th most points to opposing WR's with just under 40 points per game. While Stephon Gilmore is a very good emerging young corner, Hopkins has proved throughout most of this year he is matchup proof.
Antonio Brown ($8,600) vs. Indianapolis Colts: Had a somewhat quite game last week hauling in 6 receptions for 51 yards. But that was expected as he faced off versus Richard Sherman for much of the evening. The important thing is he still received 12 targets and has the full confidence of Ben regardless of his individual matchup. If Ben plays this week, Brown should see some of Davis and Toler which gives Brown the advantage. He's a target machine with a very high weekly floor with an appealing matchup.
Alshon Jeffrey ($6,900) vs. San Francisco 49ers: For the first time all year, Jeffrey was not mentioned on the Bear's injury report. He had a solid game last week vs. Green Bay, hauling in 6 of his 11 targets for 90 receiving yards. The 49ers are giving up the 6th most points to opposing wide receivers and Jeffrey is the main target in this Bears offense that looks like they might be without Martellus Bennett again. He will be going up against 5'10 Tramine Brock and should be force fed the ball from Cutler.
TY Hilton ($5,700) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: TY Hilton and Hasselback finally got on the same page last week as Hilton hauled both touchdowns. This week he gets to face struggling corner, Antwon Blake, and has PFF 2nd best matchup advantage. Even more appealing is the fact that the Steelers are giving up the 2nd most points to opposing wide receivers with an average of 44 fantasy points per game. The Steelers have given up 14 touchdowns to opposing wide receivers and this trend should continue as Vegas is predicting this to be a high scoring game.
Martavis Bryant ($5,600) vs. Indianapolis Colts: Bryant still isnt getting the love on DFS given his price. In 6 games this year Bryant has over 500 yards receiving and 5 touchdowns. He is a threat any time he touches the ball as made apparent with his td run vs. Seattle last week. Bryant has PFF 5th best matchup advantage as he is facing a struggling Greg Toler. According to PFF only 10 cornerbacks have earned a worse grade than Toler who is allowing over 61.9% of his targets to be caught.
Kamar Aiken ($4,800) @ Miami Dolphins: Aiken is coming off a big Monday Night game and has another favorable matchup on the schedule versus Miami. Aiken has PFF's 4th best matchup as he should face Jamar Taylor for much of the afternoon who has the 6th worse grade according to PFF. In addition, Miami is giving up the 4th most points to opposing fantasy wide receivers. He's the #1 in this offense at a meager price with a nice matchup coming off a good game.
Danny Amendola ($4,700) vs. Philadelphia Eagles: If Amendola should return and play this week, he should be a cash game staple. With Gronk expected to be out, Amendola should pick up right where he left off before he got hurt. The Eagles defense is giving up the most fantasy points to opposing receivers and have completely fallen apart the last 2 weeks. Billy Davis refuses to give safety help and leaves his corners on an island in man coverage. Furthermore, the Eagles have struggled against opposing slot wide receivers as EJ Biggers has been getting tormented in recent weeks.
Other Cash Game/ Multiplier Options:
Brandon Marshall ($7,100) and Eric Decker ($6,300) @ New York Giants, Jarvis Landry ($6,700) vs. Baltimore Ravens, and Donte Moncrief ($4,600) @ Pittsburgh Steelers
AJ Green ($7,600) vs. Cleveland Browns: Green could be the tournament play of the week if Eifert were to sit out with his neck injury. He has PFF's top rated matchup advantage as he should see coverage from Joe Haden who has struggled with injuries this year.
Other Tournament Gambles: Devante Parker ($3,300) vs. Baltimore Ravens, Ted Ginn Jr. ($3,600) @ New Orleans
Tight End Plays
Cash Game Staples
Greg Olsen ($6,400) @ New Orleans Saints: This one is easy, Olsen is Cam Newton's top target and the Saints give up the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing tight ends with over 19 points per game. They have given up 10 touchdowns to tight ends on the year, 2nd most in the NFL.
Travis Kelce ($4,700) vs. Oakland Raiders: Travis Kelce is this week's lucky TE to face the Oakland Raiders defense. The only defense worse than the Saints and Giants versus the TE is the Oakland Raiders. The Raiders are giving up the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends and a league high 11 touchdowns versus them.
Scott Chandler ($2,500) vs. Philadelphia Eagles: Chandler will be a staple in all my cash lineups whether in the TE spot or in the flex as salary relief. Although Philly has been solid versus the Tight End all year, Gronk is expected to be out and Brady is in need of targets. Chandler will easily exceed 3x value if not 4x value this week, you'll be at a severe disadvantage if you do not play him this week.
Other Cash Game Options: Delanie Walker ($5,700) vs. Jacksonville
Luke Wilson ($2,400) @ Minnesota Vikings: Jimmy Graham is out for the year with a torn Patellar Tendon, which means Luke Wilson is now the starting tight end for the Seahawks. This has nothing to do with matchup but all to do with price and value. It will take Wilson a meager 4 catches and 30 receiving yards to hit 3x value. I only suggest him as tournament option as most people will jump at Chandler at this price range for tight end which will make Wilson low owned and in a great spot for tournaments.
Defenses to Target
Arizona Cardinals ($3,900) @ St. Louis Rams
Cincinnati Bengals ($3,400) @ Cleveland Browns
Washington Redskins ($2,300) vs. Dallas Cowboys
Best of luck this weekend!
|Home Team||Away Team||Spread||Total O/U||Game Date||Game Time|
|Detroit Lions||Green Bay Packers||GB -3||47||Thurs. Dec 3rd||8:25pm|
|New York Giants||New York Jets||NYJ -2||45||Sun. Dec 6th||1:00pm|
|St. Louis Rams||Arizona Cardinals||ARI -5.5||43||Sun. Dec 6th||1:00pm|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||Atlanta Falcons||TB -1.5||46||Sun. Dec 6th||1:00pm|
|Minnesota Vikings||Seattle Seahawks||MIN -1||42||Sun. Dec 6th||1:00pm|
|Buffalo Bills||Houston Texans||BUF -3||41.5||Sun. Dec 6th||1:00pm|
|Miami Dolphins||Baltimore Ravens||MIA -4||43.5||Sun. Dec 6th||1:00pm|
|Cleveland Browns||Cincinnati Bengals||CIN -9.5||43.5||Sun. Dec 6th||1:00pm|
|Tennessee Titans||Jacksonville Jaguars||TEN -2.5||43||Sun. Dec 6th||1:00pm|
|Chicago Bears||San Francisco 49ers||CHI -7||43||Sun. Dec 6th||1:00pm|
|San Diego Chargers||Denver Broncos||DEN -4||43.5||Sun. Dec 6th||4:05pm|
|Oakland Raiders||Kansas City Chiefs||KC -3||44||Sun. Dec 6th||4:05pm|
|New Orleans Saints||Carolina Panthers||CAR -7||49.5||Sun. Dec 6th||4:25pm|
|New England Patriots||Philadelphia Eagles||NE -9.5||49||Sun. Dec 6th||4:25pm|
|Pittsburgh Steelers||Indianapolis Colts||PIT -7||48.5||Sun. Dec 6th||8:30pm|
|Washington Redskins||Dallas Cowboys||WAS -4.5||42.5||Mon. Dec 7th||8:30pm|