December 11, 2015 - Michael Freas
DFS Corner: DraftKings Week 14 Plays
Welcome back to another week of NFP's DFS Corner. Best of luck to all those participating in their season long fantasy playoffs this weekend. I hope everyone cashed in last week using my recommendations, other than TY Hilton and Alshon Jeffrey, who failed to live up to value in great matchups. Last week was an extremely high scoring week where 190 plus points couldn't even guarantee you a victory in cash games. I think we should see less high scores among the chalk plays and things get back to normal this week. For those of you who haven’t signed up for DraftKings yet and would like to, sign up here Please find this weeks weather report for all the games here Here are Vegas’s week 14 Spreads and Game Totals
Russell Wilson ($6,300) @ Baltimore Ravens: Wilson and the Seahawks have been on an absolute tear as of late. Wilson outperformed expectations last week versus a very solid Vikings' defense. Wilson finished the day with 274 passing yards and 3 touchdowns, which was good for 34.06 fantasy points. Over the last 3 games, he has DK scores of 34.06, 38.20, and 25.40. The Ravens are giving up the 10th most points to opposing QB's (19.77 pts/per game), so Wilson presents a high floor. He will likely be one of the chalk plays of the week, and the only thing to be cautious of is the weather, as there is an 82% chance of rain as of now.
Blake Bortles ($6,000) vs. Indianapolis Colts: Bortles is coming off of a 5 touchdown, 322 passing yard explosion versus the Titans last week. His past 2 DK performances have scores of 35.78 and 26.46. This week, he gets to face a Colts' defense that was just picked apart by Pittsburgh the other night. Furthermore, the Colts are giving up the 8th most points to opposing QBs (20.46 pts/per game). I expect another big game from Bortles this week in what could be another close and high scoring game.
Tyrod Taylor ($5,400) @ Philadelphia Eagles: Tyrod Taylor is coming off back to back 3 touchdown, 0 interception games where he achieved scores of 29.24 and 27.24. This week, he gets to face an Eagles' defense that is giving up the 2nd most points to opposing QBs (22.67 pts/per game). Most people will be on Shady for the "revenge" game, so Taylor makes a nice pivot from that and presents a high enough floor and high upside to be used in all formats.
[caption id="attachment_69156" align="alignright" width="316"] My best performing lineup from last week[/caption]
Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5,400) vs. Tennessee Titans: We recommended Fitzy last week and we're going back at it him again this week. Fitzmagic has upped his play over the past few weeks yet has seen only a marginal increase in salary. He has been extremely consistent on DraftKings, earning no less than 3x value over that past 5 weeks with scores of 28.80, 29.18 , 17.84, 16.72 and 18.88. This week, he gets to face a Titans' defense that just gave up 5 touchdown passes to Bortles and the Jags. Fitzy is a great selection in all formats.
Jameis Winston ($5,500) vs. New Orleans Saints: Jameis is the lucky winner this week facing off against the pitiful New Orleans Saints' defense that is allowing the most points to opposing QBs (26.11 pts/per game). Jameis is getting pumped up by all outlets, he has a great matchup, and has shown the potential to put up a huge game like he did versus Philadelphia a few weeks ago. Jameis should be able to easily hit 3x value in this one, but I think I will be pivoting away as I could also see the threat of him not throwing more than 30-35 passes and them relying on Doug Martin and the ground game. I don't want to steer you in the wrong direction, but for me, personally, I think there are safer QBs with higher upside in his price range.
Running Back Plays
LeSean McCoy ($6,100) @ Philadelphia Eagles: Ahh the revenge game versus his former team. You can bet Rex will make him a Captain for this game. McCoy will be very motivated to play against his former team and coach that shipped him away. But even taking revenge out of the equation, McCoy has been consistently getting roughly 20 plus carries the past few weeks and has gone over 100 combined yards the past 6 games. Philly has been solid versus the run for most of the season but has been allowing some of the most points to position the past 3 weeks, and I expect Rex Ryan to get McCoy highly involved. He will be highly owned this week because of it and wouldn't be a bad player to fade in tournaments because of it.
DeAngelo Williams ($6,000) @ Cincinnati Bengals: The 2nd highest total this week at 49.5 points, Vegas is predicting a lot of scoring this weekend. While I assume most will be all over the passing game, Williams provides a nice pivot for tournaments but still brings a very solid floor to cash games due to his involvement in the passing game. He has scored 23.50 and 24.70 points respectfully the past two weeks and although the matchup isn't ideal, the 6.5 targets he has been averaging should allow him to hit floor.
David Johnson ($4,300) vs. Minnesota Vikings: David Johnson represents the best value play on the Thursday night slate, he will likely be highly owned again but that isn't a problem in cash games. Bruce Arians has already come out and said he would like to get David Johnson roughly 25 touches this week, which bodes well with the game script given that Arizona is 7.5 point favorites.
Lamar Miller ($5,700) vs. New York Giants: The first week without Bill Lazor calling plays, the Dolphins stuck to their word and established the ground game with Miller receiving 20 carries for 113 rushing yards. This week, Miller gets a Giants defense that is giving up the 6th most points to opposing running backs (26.30 pts/per game). The Giants are allowing roughly over 97 rushing yards per game and 6 catches per game to opposing running backs, so Miller is in a great spot to exploit this matchup. The only concern here is what will be Miami's game plan this week?
Thomas Rawls ($5,800) @ Baltimore Ravens: While Russell Wilson is one of the chalk plays for QB's given Baltimore's inability to stop the pass and the tear that Wilson has been on the past few weeks, Rawls presents great values in both formats. He is receiving the lion's share of touches (70 carries past 3 weeks) and will be expected to carry another heavy workload this week in a game that the Seahawks should easily win. The gamescript and potential weather with rain are all positives for Rawls.
Shaun Draughn ($4,800) @ Cleveland Browns: While this wont be the sexy pick, it may be one of the smartest. Don't be fooled to shy away from Draughn as he has an excellent matchup as the Browns are giving up the 7th most points to opposing running backs (25.93 pts/per game). The Browns are giving up roughly 126 yards per game and Draughn is garnering all of the carries out of the 49ers backfield. Furthermore, he presents a high floor given his involvement in the passing game as he has over 22 catches in the past 4 games.
Darren Sproles ($3,500) and Ryan Matthews ($3,400) vs. Buffalo Bills: Chip Kelly finally demoted Demarco Murray last week and gave Sproles more touches. While I don't think he'll lead the team in touches this week with Ryan Mathews returning, I do believe Sproles will still be very active throughout this game as he is simply too dynamic not to be on the field. At his minimum salary, he makes an excellent punt play with huge upside. Mathews is also a great tournament play this week as if he does play, there is a very good chance he receives the bulk of the carries. He has looked like the most explosive back for the Eagles this year.
Wide Receiver Plays
Antonio Brown ($8,900) @ Cincinnati Bengals: Antonio Brown is potentially the best PPR player when Big Ben is under center. He is a PPR machine and presents a high floor on a weekly basis. This week, he faces a very solid Bengals' defense that may be without Adam Jones and Leon Hall. Regardless, Brown is a great play again this week in Vegas's 2nd highest total.
Odell Beckham Jr. ($9,100) @ Miami Dolphins: OBJ has been one of the most consistent players over the past month and he should continue that this week versus an average Dolphins' defense. Brent Grimes is a good CB, but he is not someone who can stick with OBJ over the course of the game. OBJ is the focal point of this Giants' offense and that should continue again this week.
Brandon Marshall ($7,600) vs. Tennessee Titans: Marshall might be one of my favorite plays of the week. He has been extremely consistent this season either scoring a touchdown or collecting 100 yards receiving in every game this year. He is coming off of two huge games where he scored 34.10 and 37.10 points. This week, he faces off against a Titans' secondary that just allowed 5 passing touchdowns and 3 to Allen "Baby Dez" Robinson who has a very similar frame and skillset to Marshall.
AJ Green ($7,900) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: Projected high scoring game, very active in offense, great matchup, coming off a 26.80 and 24.10 point games over the past 2 weeks, what else do you need to know? While I like Green's value more when Eifert isn't in the lineup, Green is another great play this week as the Steelers give up the 3rd most points to opposing wide receivers (42.28 pts/per game). Green has played very well historically against the Steelers throughout his career.
Eric Decker ($6,400) vs. Tennessee Titans: All of the reasons I mentioned above for B Marsh apply to Decker who finally saw a little bump in his salary. Decker has been one of the most consistent fantasy players all year, he's a TD machine, and he is averaging 21 points per game. He provides a high floor with upside.
Jarvis Landry ($6,300) vs. New York Giants: Landry had a huge dud last week, but it was due to more to the fact that Miami didn't run that many plays, and when they did, most of them were runs. I expect them to get back to a more balanced approach this week versus a porous Giants defense. While Parker and Stills will be covered by DRC and Prince Amukamara, Landry will have the benefit of facing struggling Nickel Corner Trevin Wade. The Giants are giving up the 6th most points to opposing WR's (40.14 pts/per game). Landry is 6th in receptions this year, so I expect him to bounce back and provide another high floor in what could turn into a shootout.
Sammy Watkins ($6,100) @ Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles give up the most points to opposing WRs (44.08 pts/per game), Byron Maxwell has been abused this year and rookie Eric Rowe is still untested. Watkins should be in store for a big game and makes a great stack with Taylor and a nice pivot from McCoy. He presents great upside, so he is a great tournament play, but his inconsistent targets could make him a riskier cash game play.
Martavis Bryant ($5,700) @ Cincinnati Bengals: Everything I mentioned about Antonio Brown applies to Bryant. He should be facing Dre Kirkpatrick, who has struggled this year and Bryant has PFF 7th best WR/CB matchup for the week. He is a great stack with Big Ben and can be played in both formats.
Allen Hurns ($5,500) vs Indianapolis Colts: Hurns sat out this past week but is cleared to play this week after clearing concussion protocol. Hurns should face off against one of PFF worst rated corner backs in Greg Toler. According to PFF WR/CB matchup tool, Hurns has the 3rd best matchup on the weekend. Furthermore, when these two teams met earlier in the year, Hurns exploded for 31.60 points catching 11 passes, 116 yards and 1 touchdown. He makes an excellent stack with Bortles and a good pivot away from Allen Robinson this week. Oh, and the Colts give up the 4th most points to opposing wide receivers (41.45 pts/per game).
Danny Amendola ($5,200) @ Houston Texans: The Texans have fared very well against opposing teams #1 WR's, but I don't think this applies to Amendola this week. This one is simple. The Patriots are without a lot of main options and Amendola is a target machine that is still being offered at a great price. In the two games he has started this year, he has scores of 20.64 and 23.70.
Doug Baldwin ($4,800) @ Baltimore Ravens: Baldwin leads the NFL in yards and touchdowns over the past 4 weeks and is still only $4,800 facing a Ravens defense that gives up the 5th most points to opposing WRs (40.20 pts/per game).
Tight End Options
Delanie Walker ($5,600) @ New York Jets: Matchup is not great, but Walker is one of the most consistent tight ends on a weekly basis and a favorite target of Marcus Mariota. He has gone over 90 yards in the past 3 games while averaging 10 targets a game over that stretch. Consistency at the tight end position is hard to come by, so if you are paying up for Tight End, Walker is your guy.
Scott Chandler ($3,800) @ Houston Texans: Despite seeing a $1,300 increase in salary, Chandler remains a great value play as long as Gronk is out. He should see roughly 6-8 targets and be looked at in the red zone yet again. He has scored in 3 of the past 4 weeks and Brady will rely on him again in this one.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins ($2,700) vs New Orleans Saints: The ultimate upside play for tight end this week, ASJ returned to action last week for the first time since Week 2. Despite only playing 19 snaps, ASJ still received 7 targets. Winston looks for him often and the Saints give up the most points to opposing tight ends (20.01 pts/per game).
Defenses to Target
Seattle Seahawks ($3,500) @ Baltimore Ravens
Kansas City Chiefs ($3,200) vs. San Diego
Best of luck again this weekend, if you have any questions feel free to leave a comment below or shoot me a message on Twitter @mikefreas1706
|Home||Away||Spread||Total||Game Date||Game Time|
|Arizona Cardinals||Minnesota Vikings||ARZ -7.5||45.5||Thurs. Dec 10th||8:25pm|
|Philadelphia Eagles||Buffalo Bills||BUF -1||47||Sun. Dec 13th||1:00pm|
|Cleveland Browns||San Francisco 49ers||CLE -1||41||Sun. Dec 13th||1:00pm|
|St. Louis Rams||Detroit Lions||STL -1||41||Sun. Dec 13th||1:00pm|
|Tampa Bay Bucaneers||New Orleans Saints||TB -3.5||50.5||Sun. Dec 13th||1:00pm|
|New York Jets||Tennessee Titans||NYJ -7||43||Sun. Dec 13th||1:00pm|
|Cincinnati Bengals||Pittsburgh Steelers||CIN -3||49||Sun. Dec 13th||1:00pm|
|Houston Texans||New England Patriots||NE -3||45||Sun. Dec 13th||1:00pm|
|Jacksonville Jaguars||Indianapolis Colts||Sun. Dec 13th||1:00pm|
|Kansas City Chiefs||San Diego Chargers||KC -10||45.5||Sun. Dec 13th||1:00pm|
|Chicago Bears||Washington Redskins||CHI -3||44||Sun. Dec 13th||1:00pm|
|Carolina Panthers||Atlanta Falcons||CAR -7.5||46.5||Sun. Dec 13th||1:oopm|
|Denver Broncos||Oakland Raiders||DEN -7.5||43.5||Sun. Dec 13th||4:05pm|
|Green Bay Packers||Dallas Cowboys||GB -7||43.5||Sun. Dec 13th||4:25pm|
|Baltimore Ravens||Seattle Seahawks||Sun. Dec 13th||8:30pm|
|Miami Dolphins||New York Giants||NYG -1||47||Mon. Dec 14th||8:30pm|