November 08, 2015 - Michael Freas
DFS Corner: DraftKings Week 9 Plays
Welcome back for another week of NFP's DFS Corner. I hope everyone made it through the past weekend okay, given the inordinate amount of injuries that were suffered this past Sunday. I was able to overcome the injuries to a few of my players selected in my lineups and still ended up in the green for the weekend. This week will present a challenge with 6 teams on a bye and the asbsence of players like LeVeon Bell, Steve Smith, Keenan Allen, and Matt Forte. Let's get into the week 9 slate that features 6 teams on byes. NFL Week 6 Byes: Arizona Cardinals, Baltimore Ravens, Detroit Lions, Houston Texans, Kansas City Chiefs, and Seattle Seahawks Weather Forecast for the NFL Games this weekend NFL Schedule and Vegas Lines and O/U's
High Priced Options
Tom Brady ($8,500) vs. Washington Redskins: Brady is the only high priced QB I will consider playing in cash games this week. He has been the number 1 fantasy Quarterback this season as he has amassed 2,410 passing yards to go along with 20 passing touchdowns and 2 rushing touchdowns. He is coming off a 4 touchdown game against Miami and has had extra time to prepare for a Redskins defense that just let Jameis Winston throw for over 289 yards and 2 touchdowns against them. Brady provides a consistent floor with a lot of upside and is exactly what you look for in a cash game QB.
Mid Tier Priced Options
Philip Rivers ($6,900) vs. Chicago Bears: Rivers has been one of the most consistent fantasy QBs the past few weeks largely due to game script and passing volume. Rivers met expectations last week against the Ravens throwing for over 300 passing yards to go along with 3 touchdowns. He has a good matchup this week versus the Bears who have given up the 5th most fantasy points to opposing QBs despite their pass defense being ranked 4th in the NFL allowing 214 passing yards per game. The loss of Rivers number 1 wide receiver Keenan Allen will cause some concern, but their lack of a rushing game will continue to keep Rivers volume high and Vegas has this game projected with the second highest total at 49.5, which bodes well for a potential shoot out.
Low Priced Options
Tyrod Taylor ($5,300) vs. Miami Dolphins: Tyrod makes his debut back after missing the past few weeks due to injury. Tyrod was one of my favorite plays earlier in the season given his floor/upside potential. In the games he has played, his scores have been 15.9, 29, 24.3, 15.5 and 23.4 , all which have provided 3x value or more. The Patriots just had their way with Miami last week, and Buffalo took care of Miami in week 3 beating them 41-14, albeit that was when Philbin was the coach and Coyle was the defensive coordinator. I expect Tyrod to provide 3x value yet again this week while also providing you flexibility to spend money elsewhere.
Jay Cutler ($5,200) @ San Diego Chargers: Will be another great play this week that provides a lot of flexibility given his meager price. Vegas has this slated as the 2nd highest total at 49.5 and I expect it to be a shoot out as both defenses have struggled as of late. The Chargers gave up over 300 passing yards and 1 TD to Joe Flacco and the Ravens anemic offense last week and 3 touchdowns to Derek Carr the week before. The loss of Forte will place more of an onus on Cutler to pick up the slack while easing in rookie Jeremy Langford. Cutler has had scores of 18.2, 18.6, 23.3 and 19.5 over his last 4 games which are all safely over 3x value.
Running Back Plays
High Priced Options
Devonta Freeman ($8,000) @ San Francisco 49ers: Devonta Freemna is one of the last men standing of the high priced running backs with the losses of LeVeon Bell and Matt Forte. Freeman has a very enticing matchup this week, facing a 49ers defense that has given up the 2nd most points to opposing running backs. To make matters worse, the 49ers give up an average of 123 rushing yards per game and have already given up 9 rushing touchdowns. They have been absolutely torched on the ground the past 2 weeks by the Seahawks and Rams. Atlanta is a 4.5 point favorite and this should bode nicely for Freeman as Gabbert is making his first start of the season for the 49ers and this game could get of hand quickly.
Todd Gurley ($6,900) @ Minnesota Vikings: How can you not start Gurley after this past stretch of games he has had? He has amassed over 420 rushing yards to go along with 3 touchdowns his past 3 games. While the Vikings have been very stout against the run this year only having allowed 104 rushing yards per game, it is very hard not to start a workhorse back like Gurley given he is the focal point of this offense.
Mid Tier Priced Options
DeAngelo Williams ($5,500) vs. Oakland Raiders: Williams will now assume the starting running back position for the Steelers with LeVeon Bell out the remainder of the year. Williams was the number 1 running back the first two weeks of the season when Bell sat out due to suspension. Williams gets a tough match this week versus a Raiders defense that is #2 in the NFL allowing only 82.9 rushing yards per game. Despite the tough matchup, I have trouble staying away from Williams given he will be the feature back and be active in the passing game which will help him reach his value. He received over 20 touches in both games he started earlier this year, so I would expect the same range of touches going into this one.
Low Priced Options
Darren McFadden ($4,600) vs. Philadelphia Eagles will be another good start this week as much it pains me to say (I am an Eagles fan). Despite this being a touch matchup its hard not to roll with McFadden given that he is the number one running back in Dallas and has been very active in the passing game, which is very favorable given DraftKings scoring system of 1pt per catch. The Eagles defense has been very stout against the run all year except against the Panthers, who ran for over 200 yards. While I am not expecting a big day on the ground for McFadden, I could easily see another 6 catch game, which puts him already more than half way to value.
Jeremy Langford ($4,000) @ San Diego Chargers will make his starting NFL debut this week while Matt Forte is out for the next two weeks dealing with a sprained knee. The Michigan State product gets a very favorable matchup in his first start as the Chargers give up the most points to opposing running backs. The Chargers are currently giving up 124.6 yards per game, which ranks 27th in the NFL. This game has the second highest total, so there is going to be plenty of opportunity for Langford to show off his acceleration that made him such an intriguing prospect in college. Given his minimal price range and expected volume, Langford is almost a must start.
Wide Receiver Plays
High Priced Options
Julio Jones ($9,300) @ San Francisco 49ers is another must play this week as he gets set to face a 49ers defense that is giving up the 3rd most points to opposing fantasy wide receivers. Jones has been playing at a high level again the past 2 weeks amassing over 30 targets in that span. They have no one on defense that can stop Julio Jones. The only negative is the fact that they could focus on a heavy ground game with Freeman or the game gets too out of hand too early.
Odell Beckham Jr. ($8.800) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: I was all over Julio and Antonio last week and didn't get to reap any benefits from OBJ's monstrous game last week. OBJ had a field day on the Saints catching over 8 balls for 130 yards and 3 TDs. OBJ gets another very favorable matchup this week as the Bucs give up the 9th most points to opposing fantasy wide receivers. The Bucs' defense has already given up 17 touchdowns through the air this season, and they have no one who can shadow OBJ. The Saints tried that last week with Breaux and that blew up in their face.
Mid Priced Options
Randall Cobb ($6,800) @ Carolina Panthers might be more of a tournament play than a cash game play given his performance over the past few weeks. Most people will be scared away from him given his play of late and the thought of Josh Norman shadowing him. But Norman most likely wont shadow any one specifically and wont go into the slot to guard Cobb. According to ProFootballFocus, Norman has only played in the slot on 2% of all of his snaps this year. While the Panthers defense is good and the Packers has been questionable as of late. It's hard to pass up on Rodgers #1 WR who is priced below $7k. I'm going with the thought process that the Packers right the ship and get things going again.
Jarvis Landry ($6,300) @Buffalo Bills is another contrarian pick this week. Landry has seen his targets almost cut in half since Campbell has taken over the Dolphins but his touchdown production has also gone up. This week he gets to face a Bills defense that is giving up the 5th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.
Low Priced Options
Michael Crabtree ($4,900) @ Pittsburgh Steelers should be another great play this week given his price and volume in the Raiders offense. Crabtree is coming off of a game vs NYJ where he received over 12 targets and hauled in 7 catches to go along with 107 receiving yards and 1 TD. Carr is playing at a very high level right now and gets to face a Steelers defense that is currently ranked 26th in the NFL in passing yards/game. While Cooper is the better WR, Crabtree actually has received 12 more targets than Cooper and leads the team with 7 red zone targets.
Stevie Johnson ($3,200) vs. Chicago Bears is the default number 1 for the pass happy San Diego Chargers now that highly targeted Keenan Allen is out for the remainder of the rest of the year with a lacerated kidney. The loss of Allen and Ladarius Green only means more targets to go around against a defense that has allowed the 3rd most passing touchdowns this year with 16. Stevie Johnson was the number 1 in Buffalo a few years ago so the experience is there. At his minimum price, Johnson is a must start in a high scoring game much like his counterpart Malcom Floyd. I lean towards Johnson because not only is his price cheaper, but he should receive more of the short to medium passes that Allen was seeing before, as Floyd will still be the main deep threat for this team moving forward.
Tight End Plays
Rob Gronkowski ($8,000) vs. Washington Redskins: Gronk is coming off of a 6 catch, 113 yard, and 1 TD game versus Miami last week. Gronk is expensive but is the safest and most consistent play at Tight end. He offers a reasonable floor given his price with a lot of upside, and the Skins truly haven't faced a great tight end this year, so Gronk very much has the potential for a big game.
Heath Miller ($2,700) vs. Oakland Raiders: Boy is Miller glad Big Ben is back in the Steelers' lineup. After being nothing more than an afterthought the past few weeks, Miller exploded back on the scene last week to the tune of 10 catches and 105 yards. With LeVeon Bell out for the remainder of the year, I believe Ben will turn to Miller more often to be his safety valve when things get hectic. Miller's volume should increase moving forward.
|New England Patriots||Washington Redskins||NE -14||52|
|San Diego Chargers||Chicago Bears||SD -4||49.5|
|Pittsburgh Steelers||Oakland Raiders||PIT -4.5||48|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||New York Giants||NYG -2.5||48|
|Indianapolis Colts||Denver Broncos||DEN -4||48|
|New Orleans Saints||Tennessee Titans||NO -8||47.5|
|Cincinnati Bengals||Cleveland Browns||CIN -10||46|
|Carolina Panthers||Green Bay Packers||GB -1.5||46|
|San Francisco 49ers||Atlanta Falcons||ATL -4.5||45|
|Buffalo Bills||Miami Dolphins||BUF -3||44|
|Dallas Cowboys||Philadelphia Eagles||PHI -2.5||44|
|Minnesota Vikings||St. Louis Rams||MIN -2.5||40|
|New York Jets||Jacksonville Jaguars||NYG -2.5||40|