October 24, 2015 - Michael Freas
DFS Corner: NFL Week 7 Plays
Welcome back for another week of NFP's DFS Corner. I hope everyone had a good weekend on Draft Kings and reaped the benefits of using my Week 6 plays which helped me double up this past weekend. Before I get into this week's plays, take a look at the teams on a bye this week, players dealing with injuries, and Vegas's top 5 totals for the week. NFL Week 7 Byes: Chicago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals, Denver Broncos and Green Bay Packers NFL Week 7 Notable Injuries: Marcus Mariotta-MCL Sprain (Out), Ben Roethlisberger- MCL Sprain (Out), Tyrod Taylor -MCL Sprain (Out), Michael Vick-Hamstring Strain, Justin Forsett-Ankle, Sammy Watkins-Ankle (Out), Jeremy Maclin- Concussion (Questionable), Allen Robinson- Leg Contusion (Probable), Keenan Allen- Hip Strain (Questionable but should play), Jordan Reed- Concussion (Questionable, but should play) 5 Highest O/U game totals according to Vegas Indianapolis Colts (-4.5) vs. New Orleans Saints with Total of 52.5 New England Patriots (-9) vs. New York Jets with Total of 48.5 Arizona Cardinals (-7.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens with Total of 48.5 Tennessee Titans (+4) vs, Atlanta Falcons with Total of 48 San Diego Chargers (-4) vs. Oakland Raiders with Total of 47 Quarterback Plays High Priced Options: Andrew Luck ($7,600) vs. New Orleans Saints will be the only high priced QB I will consider this week. Luck made his first start back from injury last week and played well, putting up over 31 points. This week, he gets to face a Saints' Defense that is ranked 31st against fantasy QBs this year. To make matters worse, they have already allowed 11 passing touchdowns through the air to go along with two interceptions, both of which came off Sam Bradford. Vegas has this game pegged as the highest total this week, with the Colts projected to put over 28 points, so Luck should be a safe bet to easily hit 2x his value. Middle Priced Options: Carson Palmer ($6,700) vs. Baltimore Ravens will probably be one of my most used QBs in cash game lineups. Not only does Vegas project the Cardinals projected to put up 28 points, but they get to face the Baltimore Ravens defense that currently is 32nd, which is the worst in the NFL vs. opposing fantasy QBs. I suggested Kaep last week vs. the Ravens, and he didn't disappoint throwing for 340 yards with 2 TD's on a mere 16 completions. Palmer had a down game last week, but Pittsburgh was able to generate consistent pressure, which is something a depleted Ravens defense can not do. Furthermore, Palmer has averaged over 3oo passing yards the last 3 games, and the match up bodes well again this week so start Palmer with confidence. Phillip Rivers ($6,500) vs. Oakland Raiders will be the other QB I choose most often in cash games this week. I am still trying to figure out why Rivers isn't priced better than 9th for QBs, as he has been the #1 QB the past three weeks throwing for over 1,200 yards and 7 TDs. Rivers currently leads the league in passing yards and just threw for 503 yards and 2 TDs (31.1 pts) last week in another shootout. The Chargers offense runs through Rivers as suspect O-Line play has hurt their attempt to establish a ground game. Although the Raiders are 15th vs opposing fantasy QB's, their defense is still 23rd against the pass. In a game that I predict will be back and forth, don't question Rivers as a solid cash game QB. Low Priced Options: Brian Hoyer ($5,300) @ Miami Dolphins will be another QB I play this week if I am trying to save some money at the QB position. While I don't think Hoyer will light the world on fire, his mere price of $5.3k provides a lot of value and he once again should hit 3x value. Over the last 3 weeks Hoyer has scored 24.2 (@ Jax), 23.9 (vs. Ind) and 17.3 (@Atl) and all he needs to reavh 3x his value is 15.9 points which shouldnt be too hard when your force feeding Deandre Hopkins the entire game. Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5,200) @ New England Patriots will be the other low priced QB I target in Cash Games this week. Fitzpatrick is coming of a 26.2 pt game vs Washington last week and found success through by the air and his legs. With this game being the second highest total of the week, I expect Fitzpatrick to be very active. Bill Belichick usually does a great job of stopping a team's strength, which in this case, is the Jets running game led by Chris Ivory. The Patriots are currently ranked 27th against opposing fantasy QB's, which isn't all that surprising considering most teams are playing catch up with the Pats. At 5.2k, Fitzpatrick is a good bet to at least reach his season average of 18.08 points, which is over 3x his value. Running Back Plays High Priced Options: Devonta Freeman ($7,900) @ Tennessee Titans has essentially made himself a must start over the past few weeks given his performance. I made the mistake of fading him a few weeks ago and quickly realized I should continue riding this bowling ball until proven otherwise. Over the past 3 weeks, he has been the #1 fantasy running back rushing for over 321 yards and 5 TDs. The Titans are also allowing over 129 rushing yards on average this year, which bodes well for Freeman. His heavy usage in both the running and passing game coupled with a game script that favors a RB on a team that is a favorite to win and you have a safe top-priced cash game RB. Arian Foster ($7,500) @ Miami Dolphins will be the RB in this price range if I chose to fade or diversify some of my lineups from Freeman. While Foster hasn't quite gotten into full form yet in regards to the running game, he has remained highly active and his volume warrants a high floor ( 17 catches, 161 receiving yards and 1 receiving TD in 3 games this year). The Dolphins have allowed 141 yards rushing per game this year, which ranks 31st in the NFL, but did show improvement last week now that they have fired Defensive Coordinator Kevin Coyle. Regardless, Foster should be highly involved on a team that is leading the NFL with 75.7 plays per game. Middle Priced Options: Todd Gurley ($5,000) vs. Cleveland Browns will be in EVERY SINGLE ONE of my lineups this week. There is no need for diversification when he have as talented a running back as Gurley priced at a meager $5k going up against the 31st run defense in the Cleveland Browns, who also allow the 27th most fantasy points to opposing RBs. Gurley has rushed for a combined 305 yards his past two games vs defenses that were both respectively 14th and 16th against the run. Gurley is a near lock to hit 3x value with a ceiling for much more. The only word of caution is that he will be highly owned. Low Priced Options: Frank Gore ($4,900) vs. New Orleans Saints will be a low priced RB that I will either take as my RB2 or a flex in cash games this week. Not only does this game have the highest O/U, but the Saints are ranked 28th vs opposing fantasy RBs. I believe this offense will only continue to find its grove as the season goes on, and Gore presents a high floor not scoring below 11 points the past 4 weeks. Lamar Miller ($4,600) vs. Houston Texans is another great value play this week, and I hope you took my advice and played him last week in a few tournaments. Dan Campbell vowed to make this a tougher team and emphasize the run more moving forward, and he did just that last week as Miller received the most carries he has all year with 19. He turned those 19 carries into a 22.8 point fantasy day thanks to rushing for 113 yards and 1 TD. Houston's defense is currently ranked 20th vs opposing running backs and has been underwhelming all year. Wide Receiver Plays Top Priced Options: Deandre Hopkins ($8,600) @ Miami Dolphins will be my most owned WR in all of my lineups. Kind of like Freeman, how can you not play Hopkins with the production and volume he has received all year. Just to refresh your memory, here is Hopkins fantasy stat line for the year: 32.8, 10.3, 27.1, 27.7, 30.9, and 39.8 points last week. Although his price finally went up, I have no intentions of fading him until proven otherwise. Even though I do respect Brett Grimes as CB, Hopkins is on pace for 237 targets this year. That volume alone warrants the pick. Brandon Marshall ($7,800) @ New England Patriots should be in for another very active game facing a Pats' defense that is currently ranked 26th against opposing fantasy WRs. In a game with a high projected O/U, Marshall should be the beneficiary of the Pats making Fitzpatrick beat them through the air. Marshall's consistent stat line for the year is exactly what you want in cash games as he has scored 18.2, 26.1, 28.9, 22.8, and 26.1 points this year. Larry Fitzgerald ($7,400) vs. Baltimore Ravens is another very intriguing option again this week as he faces off against the Baltimore Ravens who are currently ranked 31st against opposing WRs. As I mentioned above with Marshall, Fitz is also the epitome of a player you like to target in cash games due to his consistency and the high floor he brings to the table. Fitz's fantasy points on the season are as follows 14.7, 40.2, 37.4, 15.9, 16.8, and 17.3 points. Middle Priced Options: Jarvis Landry ($6,200) vs. Houston Texans will be a sneaky play this week. Landry has been very consistent in PPR this year, and people have seemed to forgot about him due to their game in London, their bye week, and an average performance last week, where he bailed owners out with a 22-yard running touchdown. Landry is still averaging over 10 targets a game and gets to face a very beat up Houston secondary who will be without their starting SS Lonnie Ballentine for the remainder of the year. Houston's second corner, Kareem Jackson, is also most likely going to sit out as well. The only thing that has hurt Landry's upside this year is his lack of receiving TD's but the redzone targets are there, and I like his chances versus a defense that has already allowed 12 passing TD's this year. John Brown ($5,500) vs. Baltimore Ravens is another great play this week for most of the reasons listed above in Fitz's and Palmer's write ups. This may come as a surprise, but Brown has quietly led the Cardinals receivers over the past 3 weeks with over 21 catches, 334 yards and 1 TD. For comparison, here is Fitz's stat line; 20/250/1 TD. Furthermore, Brown had his big breakout game last week to the sound of 31.6 points thanks to a 10 catch 196 yard day. Brown has hit at least 3x value the past 3 weeks (15.8, 17.3,31.6) and should easily do it again facing an atrocious Ravens secondary. Donte Moncrief ($5,200) vs. New Orleans Saints will be in my lineups for a second straight week. Moncrief will most likely face up against Brandon Browner, who, on the year, has been statistically one of the worst cover corners according to PFF. Furthermore, the Saints do not generate any pass rush which will only allow Andrew Luck to have his way with a very poor Rob Ryan defense. When Luck has played this year, Moncrief has averaged over 10 targets a game to go along with 1 TD in each game. Moncrief should easily reach 3x value this week. Low Priced Options: Martavis Bryant ($4,700) @ Kansas City Chiefs will be another staple play this week. It didn't take Bryant too long to make a splash in his first game of the year, amassing over 35 fantasy points. At his low price tag, his upside is almost too much to pass up facing a Chiefs defense that ranks dead last (32nd) against opposing fantasy WR's. Landry Jones is probably an upgrade over Vick at QB and should have little trouble getting the ball in Bryant's hands. Stefon Diggs ($4,200) @ Detroit Lions has come into his own the past 2 weeks. I was a huge fan of Diggs going into the draft this past year, as he was the most heralded recruit possibly ever to attend the University of Maryland. The Terp product got his chance 2 weeks ago due to Charles Johnson being banged up and has seized his opportunity. This week, he gets to face off against the Lions' 29th ranked passing defense, which is also ranked 23rd against opposing fantasy WRs. Diggs has been called the next "Antonio Brown" from teammates and competition. While he is not quite there yet, his $4.2k price is rather intriguing as he has quickly become Bridgewater's favorite option the past 2 weeks, catching 13 of his 19 targets for over 216 yards receiving. Tight End Plays High Priced Options: I will refrain from taking Gronk at his current price of $8,100 Middle Priced Options: Antonio Gates ($5,000) vs. Oakland Raiders will be my staple TE play this week in all cash games. Since his return from suspension two weeks ago, Gates has accumulated over 18 catches and 2 TDs. He has re-established himself as one of Rivers favorite targets and is facing a porous Raiders secondary, which has been letting up the most points to TE's thus far. Look for Gates to continue his hot start this Sunday. Low Priced Options: Delanie Walker ($3,900) vs. Atlanta Falcons could be another safe option again this week. While Mettenberger starting might scare some people off, he actually formed a decent connection with him last year. Walker is the top option in the passing game this week in a game that will most likely be played from behind and catching up. You saw what the Saints and Ben Watson just did to New Orleans last week, and while I don't expect the same fate for Walker, I do think he is a lock to hit 2x value and has a very reasonable chance to hit 3x value as he did last week with over 17 points. Defensive Plays St. Louis Rams ($2,400) vs. Cleveland Browns Washington Redskins ($2,500) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pittsburgh Steelers ($2,600) @ Kansas City Chiefs Here will be one of my cash game lineups this weekend QB: Rivers RBS: Freeman and Gurley WRS: Hopkins, John Brown, Diggs TE: Gates Flex: Frank Gore DEF: St. Louis Rams Best of luck this weekend!