November 25, 2015 - Michael Freas
DFS Corner: Week 12 DraftKings Plays
Welcome back to NFP's Week 12 DFS Corner. I hope everyone has a relaxing, safe, and enjoyable Thanksgiving. I, for one, am hoping the play of my Eagles doesn't ruin my appetite for the remainder of the day. Last week, I got back on track as most of my suggestions reached or exceeded their value. But I wasn't without some misses as the injury bug hurt my picks of Devonta Freeman, Charcandrick West and Zach Ertz. We are now officially done with bye weeks, so we have all 32 teams at our disposal this weekend. The format below is a little different this week given the Thursday slate on Thanksgiving. Please leave some feedback on the new format, as I am trying to provide you with the best intel. For those of you who haven't signed up for DraftKings yet and would like to, sign up here National Football Post is also hosting a League this weekend. If you would like to participate in NFP's DFS Corner 50/50 League, you can enter a team here. Please find this weeks weather report for all the games here Here are Vegas's week 12 Spreads and Game Totals
Thursday: Turkey Edition Plays
Cash Game Play: Aaron Rodgers ($7,400) vs. Chicago Bears: Despite the Packers offense not running as smoothly as we are used to, Aaron Rodgers has still been a very productive quarterback. Rodgers's last 3 games have consisted of point totals of 19.08, 25.12, and 36.96 points. Rodgers represents the safest option on a short 3 game slate. While the Bears, statistically, have been strong versus the pass this year, I expect Rodgers to be firing on all cylinders on prime time versus a defense that is allowing over 23 points a game and which Vegas predicts to have a total of 47, the highest of any Thanksgiving game.
Tournament Plays: Matt Stafford ($5,800) vs. Philadelphia Eagles and Mark Sanchez ($5,200)
Matt Forte ($6,800) @ Green Bay Packers: Forte is set to make his return this week after sitting out the past month with an MCL sprain. Although Forte will probably give up some carries to Langford, I am still expecting a heavy workload given the uncertainty with injuries to Jeffrey, Royal and Bennett. Furthermore, Forte is never priced below $7k and his work in the receiving game alone should provide a high floor.
Calvin Johnson ($7,200) vs. Philadelphia Eagles: Calvin is the top WR play for the Thursday slate. He gets to face off against an Eagles defense that is giving up the 2nd most points to opposing receivers. Nolan Carroll and Byron Maxwell are no match for Calvin Johnson and the Eagles will have no answers.
Brent Celek ($3,200) @ Detroit Lions: Celek is a great value tight end for the Thursday slate. Zach Ertz looks to be out with a concussion, and Celek will be the beneficiary of that. Mark Sanchez looks for his tight ends often as evident last week when he caught 7 passes for 79 yards off of 10 targets.
Carson Palmer ($7,100) @ San Francisco 49ers: Palmer is coming off an impressive 317 passing yards and 4 touchdown performance versus the Cincinnati Bengals. He has been a great cash game option as he has exceeded 3x value in his last 4 games with scores of 29.58, 26.32, 33.56, and 19.2. The 49ers are giving up the 5th most points to opposing fantasy QBs and are allowing over 291 passing yards per game. The only thing to be conscious of would be if the Cardinals get up big early and rely on the run more given the 49ers inability to also to defend the run. But the Cardinals don't really utilize their running backs to grind out games, so I see Palmer being an extremely safe option.
Brian Hoyer ($5,000) vs. New Orleans Saints: Hoyer has been a staple cash game play of mine when the right matchup presents itself given the Texans' high volume of passes and his cheap price. This week, the Texans get to face the worst defense in football in the New Orleans Saints. The Saints are coming out of a bye and Rob Ryan is no longer the defensive coordinator, but the lack of quality playmakers remains. The Saints give up the most points to opposing quarterbacks, giving up an average of 25 points per game. The Saints' defense has already allowed 28 touchdowns on the year , 17 touchdowns over the past 4 weeks, and are letting up an average of 308 passing yards per game. Hoyer represents extreme value this week.
Tournament Plays: Eli Manning ($6,500) @ Washington, Kirk Cousins ($5,400) vs. New York Giants
Adrian Peterson ($7,300) @ Atlanta Falcons: AP is the only high priced running back I will consider paying up for in lineups this week. AP was a disappointment last week, but I am looking for him to get back on track this week against a below average Atlanta run defense. The Falcons are giving up the third most points to opposing running backs this year.
TJ Yeldon ($4,800) vs. San Diego Chargers: Yeldon is the lucky running back to go off against the worst rushing defense in the NFL in the San Diego Chargers. Not only are the Chargers giving up the most points to opposing running backs, but they are giving up 111 rushing yards per game and over 5 receptions per game. The game script also favors Yeldon as the Jaguars are 4.5 point favorites in a game Vegas predicts to be pretty high scoring with a total of 46.5 points. The Chargers can't stop anyone. They allowed Spencer Ware to run close for 100 yards and gave up 3 rushing touchdowns last week.
Thomas Rawls ($4,500) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: Rawls was a tournament savior for me last week as he got the start with Marshawn Lynch being a late inactive. Rawls offers great value again this week, despite the Steelers' strong efforts against the run this year. Seattle is a run first team and Rawls is no slacker as he is leading the NFL with 6 YPC. He ran rampant last week with over 255 total yards, giving him his third 100 yard game of the season. He should see the lion's share of volume again this week and could even find himself active on the receiving end once again. Start him with confidence. He presents great value this week in a game where the Seahawks are favorited by 4.5 points.
Javorius Allen ($4,600) vs. Cleveland Browns: With Justin Forsett and Joe Flacco both out for the year, I am expecting people to potentially fade the Ravens' offense until they see how they perform. But given Allen's low price and the fact that he is facing a Browns' defense that is giving up an NFL worst 138 rushing yards per game, I am intrigued. I am assuming the Ravens will rely on Allen for most of their offensive production, and he should be active in both the rushing and passing game.
Chris Johnson ($4,600) vs. San Francisco 49ers: CJ2K has been quiet after his hot start, but his matchup and price makes him a great value play this week. The 49ers are giving up over 111 rushing yards per game and over 5.5 receptions to opposing running backs. They are giving up the 2nd most points to opposing running backs as well. CJ2K had 2 touchdowns and over 111 yards versus the 49ers earlier this year, and the game script favors the rushing attack as the Cardinals are 10 point favorites.
Wide Receiver Plays:
Julio Jones ($9,400) vs. Minnesota Vikings: Julio Jones has the top matchup according to PFF as he gets to face off against promising, yet struggling, Xavier Rhodes. PFF has Julio having the biggest matchup advantage amongst WRs and CBs. With Devonta Freeman's status up in the air, the Falcons will need to rely on their passing game a little more this week. Julio Jones is a target machine already and will be a staple play of mine this week.
DeAndre Hopkins ($9,100) vs. New Orleans Saints: Hopkins further proved last week that he is a matchup proof option as he got the best of Darrelle Revis for much of the afternoon. This week, he gets to face Delvin Breaux who is a promising cornerback but no matchup for Hopkins and all the volume and targets he brings. He is the top play at WR this week, and given the value at running back and quarterback, I plan on pairing him with Julio.
Larry Fitzgerald ($7,400) @ San Francisco 49ers : Fitz might be the most consistent option on a week to week basis, providing a high floor given his moderately high price. This week, he gets to face off against the 49ers who are giving up the 5th most points to opposing receivers. Fitz also has the most appealing mtachup of all Cardinals' receivers as he should face off against Jimmie Ward for most of the afternoon. PFF has Fitz's matchup vs Ward as the 4th biggest advantage amongst WR and CBs.
Stevie Johnson ($4,500) @ Jacksonville Jaguars : This one is simple, Johnson is still low priced and the top target for a pass happy Chargers' offense. He hauled in 7 of his 8 targets last week exceeding 12 points for the second consecutive week. I am expecting the Chargers' offense to get back on track, and if that's the case, then Johnson will be a big reason why.
Other Wide Receivers I am Targeting in Cash/Tournaments:
Antonio Brown ($8,700) @ Seattle Seahawks, Odell Beckhem Jr. ($8,700) @ Washington Redskins, Eric Decker ($5,800) vs. Miami Dolphins, Stefon Diggs ($4,800) @ Atlanta Falcons, Jamison Crowder ($3,600) vs. New York Giants
Tight End Plays:
Jordan Reed ($5,100) vs. New York Giants: Vegas is predicting this to be a high scoring game with a total of 46.5 points. Jordan Reed continues to be one of Cousins's favorite targets and the Giants struggle versus the tight end as they are giving up the most points versus opposing tight ends. Get back on Reed before his price jumps up again.
Delanie Walker ($5,400) vs. Oakland Raiders: It's always a sound strategy to try and target tight ends facing the Raiders and this week is even better with a very involved tight end in Walker playing them. The Raiders are giving up over 15 points a game to opposing tight ends, which is the 2nd most in the league.
Gary "People's Champ" Barnidge ($4,800) vs. Baltimore Ravens: Barnidge received a huge boost with the announcement of McCown taking over the QB duties again in Cleveland. Barnidge's best games this year came when McCown was under center as he peppered him with targets on a regular basis. I expect much of the same here despite the Ravens keeping tight ends in check this season.
Heath Miller ($3,100) @ Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawks' defense one primary weakness is covering the tight end. Miller's value is always better with Big Ben under center and he could go unnoticed this week as the Seahawks have their hands full stopping Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant.
Defenses to Target
Cincinnati Bengals ($3,000) vs. St. Louis Rams
Cleveland Browns ($2,000) vs. Baltimore Ravens
|Detroit Lions||Philadelphia Eagles||PHL -1||46||Thurs. Nov. 26th||12:30pm|
|Dallas Cowboys||Carolina Panthers||CAR -1||46||Thurs. Nov. 26th||4:30pm|
|Green Bay Packers||Chicago Bears||GB -9||47||Thurs. Nov 26th||8:30pm|
|Houston Texans||New Orleans Saints||HOU -3||47.5||Sun. Nov 29th||1:00pm|
|Cincinnati Bengals||St. Louis Rams||CIN -9||42||Sun. Nov 29th||1:00pm|
|Atlanta Falcons||Minnesota Vikings||ATL -2||46||Sun. Nov 29th||1:00pm|
|Washington Redskins||New York Giants||NYG -2.5||46.5||Sun. Nov 29th||1:00pm|
|Indianapolis Colts||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||IND -3||46.5||Sun. Nov 29th||1:oopm|
|Kansas City Chiefs||Buffalo Bills||KC -5||41||Sun. Nov 29th||1:00pm|
|Tennessee Titans||Oakland Raiders||OAK -2||44||Sun. Nov 29th||1:oopm|
|Jacksonville Jaguars||San Diego Chargers||JAC -4||46.5||Sun. Nov 29th||1:oopm|
|New York Jets||Miami Dolphins||NYJ -3.5||42.5||Sun. Nov 29th||1:00pm|
|San Francisco 49ers||Arizona Cardinals||ARZ -10||45||Sun. Nov 29th||4:05pm|
|Seattle Seahawks||Pittsburgh Steelers||SEA -4.5||44.5||Sun. Nov 29th||4:25pm|
|Denver Broncos||New England Patriots||NE -3||44.5||Sun. Nov 29th||8:30pm|
|Cleveland Browns||Baltimore Ravens||CLE -2.5||41||Mon. Nov 30th||8:30pm|