December 19, 2015 - Michael Freas
DFS Corner: Week 15 DraftKings Plays
Welcome back everyone for yet another week of NFP's DFS Corner. Hopefully everyone was able to cash in on last week's plays and win some extra dough before the holiday season. This week's slate presents a lot of great value at the running back position with a lot of recent injuries. The wide receiver position is a little more uncertain with OBJ drawing potential DPOY candidate Josh Norman and Antonio Brown facing two elite corners in Aqib Talib and Chris Harris. But, nonetheless, I am here to present some great plays again this weekend, so let's get into it. For those of you who haven’t signed up for DraftKings yet and would like to, sign up here Please find this weeks weather report for all the games here Here are Vegas’s week 15 Spreads and Game Totals
High Priced Tier Options
Cam Newton ($7,800) @ New York Giants: I don't need to spend much time here, Newton is an MVP candidate who has been playing at an extremely high level all year. The Panthers just destroyed the Falcons last week and Newton was good for 3 touchdowns and 23 points. He faces a Giants' defense that is allowing the 5th most points to opposing QBs (21.10 pts), for an average of 315 passing yards and 1.77 passing touchdowns per game.
Carson Palmer ($7,000) @ Philadelphia Eagles: Palmer is coming off extra rest after playing on Thursday Night last week. Palmer has been one of the most consistent QB options throughout the year and has a very favorable matchup at Philly this week. The Eagles are giving up the 2nd most points to opposing QBs (22.39 pts), for an average of 272 passing yards and 2.23 passing touchdowns per game.
Russell Wilson ($7,000) vs. Cleveland Browns: Wilson has been the best fantasy player the past 4 weeks, throwing for 16 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. They just lost starting running back Thomas Rawls for the year and are planning on starting Bryce Brown who they just picked up again this week. I think it is safe to say, the offense will yet again run through Wilson. He gets another favorable matchup this week versus a Browns' defense that has given up 10th most points to opposing QBs (20.09 pts), for an average of 262 passing yards, and 2 touchdowns per game.
Matthew Stafford ($6,100) @ New Orleans: Saints give up the most points to opposing QBs (25.15 pts) for an average of 292 passing yards and 2.77 passing touchdowns per game. This offense has had a resurgence since Martha Ford (my vote for Executive of the Year) has taken the reigns of her precious Lions. The Lions have no running game so this should be very pass heavy.
Tyrod "TyGod" Taylor ($5,600) @ Washington Redskins: Been playing very consistent football over the last few weeks and has the ability to put up points with his arms and legs. He has reached 3-4x value in his last 3 games and should easily reach it once again against a banged up Skins' secondary.
Running Back Plays
High Priced Options:
Adrian Peterson ($7,100) vs. Chicago Bears: Positive game script as they are 5 point favorite in this game. Had over 100 yards when he faced them earlier in the year and this offense runs through him. Should have over 100 yards and at least a touchdown and could also be a great tournament play after a subpar week last week.
David Johnson ($5,700) @ Philadelphia Eagles: David Johnson is the bell cow for one of the most explosive offenses in the league and that trend should continue this week against the Eagles. The Eagles defense is giving up the 12th most points to opposing running backs (24.74 pts), for an average of 109 rushing yards, 5.23 receptions and 45.15 receiving yards per game.
Denard Robinson ($4,600) vs. Atlanta Falcons: Robinson took over for TJ Yeldon last week and performed admirably. Yeldon should be held out with a Knee sprain this week making Robinson the defacto running back as Toby Gerhart was placed on IR a few weeks ago. He faces an Atlanta defense that has completely fallen apart the 2nd of the season as they are giving up the 2nd most points to opposing running backs (30 pts), for an average of 96.62 rushing yards, 1.15 rushing touchdowns, 6.92 receptions and 54.77 receiving yards per game.
Tim Hightower ($3,900) vs. Detroit Lions: So much for CJ Spiller splitting carriers with Hightower, as Hightower had 28 carries for 85 rushing yards and a touchdown last week versus Tampa Bay. Hightower will be highly owned given his price and the tremendous value he offers. Facing a Lions' defense that is giving up 23.55 points per game to opposing running backs, Hightower should be locked into cash game lineups.
Brandon Bolden ($3,200) vs. Tennessee Titans: With the news that Legarrette Blount is out for the year, Brandon Bolden should be the recipient of his carries. He rushed 16 times last week for 51 yards when Blount left the game. Nothing is even known though with Bill Belichick, but given his low price it shouldn't matter. Bolden's volume should provide a high floor and allow him to reach value.
Lamar Miller ($6,300) @ San Diego Chargers: Miller started off the game great last week before the ineptitude of the Dolphins' coaching staff took over and he barely touched the ball in the second half. He gets the Chargers' defense that is allowing over 27 points per game to opposing running backs for an average of 111.46 rushing yards per game.
Eddie Lacy ($5,200) @ Oakland Raiders: McCarthy has taken over playcalling duties, and it looks like he wants to get Lacy going. Two 20 point games in the past 3 weeks and facing a defense that is giving up roughly over 25 points a game to opposing running backs.
LeSean McCoy ($6,300) @ Washington Redskins: Everyone was on Shady last week in the "Revenge Game", and he was a slight disappointment. I think recency bias will take effect, and I expect him to have low ownership this week.
Charcandrick West ($4,800) @ Baltimore Ravens: If Spencer Ware is out this weekend, we are getting West at a significant discount who will dominate the workload in an appealing matchup versus the Ravens. West will receive the lion's share of the carries and if he performs like he did in the 3 game stretch earlier in the season, we are in great shape as he averaged roughly around 24 points a game.
[caption id="attachment_69418" align="alignright" width="324"] One of my Week 14 lineups[/caption]
Wide Receiver Plays
Julio Jones ($8,500) @ Jacksonville Jaguars: This is lowest we have seen Julio's price in quite some time but that is reality when you haven't scored a touchdown since week 8. The Falcons are a mess right now but that's more due to Matt Ryan's poor play. The volume is still there to present a high floor as he is still receiving over 13 targets per game and this is a very appealing matchup so the upside is there.
DeAndre Hopkins ($8,500) @ Indianapolis Colts: Hopkins has cooled off over the past few weeks after facing some stiff competition. This week he gets to face a below average Colts' defense and should expect much shadowing from Vontae Davis, who isn't playing at the same elite level as he has in the past. Yates looks slated to start and I expect him to lean on Hopkins for much of the game. Hopkins has a lot of upside at a reduced rate but he does come with some risk.
Jeremy Maclin ($5,500) @ Baltimore Ravens: Maclin is averaging over 10 targets a game the past 3 weeks and has safely reached 2x value in all 3 games while exceeding 5x value twice. This week, he faces a Ravens' defense that is giving up the 2nd most points to opposing WRs with over 42.99 points per game.
Doug Baldwin ($5,800) vs. Cleveland Browns: Hottest receiver in football over the past 4 weeks playing with the hottest quarterback in football facing a below average defense, pretty simple. His price is on the rise which is a slight concern given he doesn't receive double digit targets, but it's hard to find a reason to fade him.
Golden Tate ($5,500) @ New Orleans Saints: As we explained before the Saints' defense is atrocious and Tate has been extremely consistent and productive the last few weeks. He has over 32 catches and 3 touchdowns over the past 4 weeks and has a favorable matchup vs XYZ.
Michael Floyd ($4,400) @ Philadelphia Eagles: Any of the Cardinals WRs have value in this game but Floyd is the one I will be targeting as he has been extremely consistent and more involved over the past few weeks. He's received over 8 targets a game over the past 5 games and should be matched up against Byron Maxwell and Eric Rowe for much of the night.
Randall Cobb ($6,300) @ Oakland Raiders: Cobb has to be happy that McCarthy has retaken over the play call duties as he saw his name called a lot more often last week hauling in 8 catches off of 12 targets and 3 carries.
Jordan Reed ($5,900) vs. Buffalo Bills: The Bills have been pretty solid versus tight ends this year but Reed isn't a tradition tight end. He is coming off a 30 point performance against the Bears who were also suppose to keep him in check. Reed's unique role in this offense provide a high floor with a lot of upside without having to pay up into Gronk and Olsen territory.
Zach Miller ($3,600) @ Minnesota Vikings: Miller is the starting tight end for the remainder of the year and should continue to receive a high share of targets. Miller scored over 19 points last week hauling in 6 catches, 85 yards and 1 touchdown. At a near minimum he should easily reach 2x value and has a great shot to reach 3-4x value.
Antonio Gates ($4,600) vs. Miami Dolphins: Who does Philip Rivers have left to throw to? Gates is averaging 7 targets a game over the past 3 weeks and 6 receptions over the past 2. He is coming at a minimum price and should be in line to easily exceed 3x value. People might be scared away with Ladarius Green returning which should result in low ownership.
Defenses to Target
Seattle Seahawks ($4,200) vs. Cleveland Browns
Kansas City Chiefs ($3,700) @ Baltimore Ravens
Houston Texans ($2,500) @ Indianapolis Colts
Best of luck everyone, if you have any questions please do not hesitate to leave a comment below or shoot me a message on Twitter @mikefreas1706. Let's make some cash before the holiday!
|Home||Away||Spread||Total||Game Date||Game Time|
|St. Louis Rams||Tampa Bay Bucaneers||STL -1||41||Thurs. Dec 17||8:25pm|
|Dallas Cowboys||New York Jets||NYJ -3||42||Sat. Dec 19||8:25pm|
|Minnesota Vikings||Chicago Bears||MIN -5.5||43||Sun. Dec 20||1:oopm|
|Jacksonville Jaguars||Atlanta Falcons||JAC -3||49||Sun. Dec 20||1:00pm|
|Indianapolis Colts||Houston Texans||TBA||TBA|
|New York Giants||Carolina Panthers||CAR -5||48||Sun. Dec 20||1:00pm|
|New England Patriots||Tennessee Titans||NE -14||47||Sun. Dec 20||1:00pm|
|Washington Redskins||Buffalo Bills||BUF -1||44||Sun. Dec 20||1:00pm|
|Baltimore Ravens||Kansas City Chiefs||KC -7.5||41.5||Sun. Dec 20||1:00pm|
|Seattle Seahawks||Cleveland Browns||SEA -14.5||43||Sun. Dec 20||4:05pm|
|Oakland Raiders||Green Bay Packers||GB -3||46.5||Sun. Dec 20||4:05pm|
|Pittsburgh Steelers||Denver Broncos||PIT -6||44.5||Sun. Dec 20||4:25pm|
|San Diego Chargers||Miami Dolphins||SD -1.5||45||Sun. Dec 20||4:25pm|
|San Francisco 49ers||Cincinnati Bengals||CIN -4.5||40.5||Sun. Dec 20||4:25pm|
|Philadelphia Eagles||Arizona Cardinals||ARI -3.5||50.5||Sun. Dec 20||8:30pm|
|New Orleans Saints||Detroit Lions||NO -3||51||Mon. Dec 21||8:30pm|