How many yards will Chris Johnson run for tonight?

So I was scrolling through the individual player props for Thursday night’s Indianapolis-Tennessee game when one option jumped off the page and caught my eye.

Tennessee Titans running back Chris Johnson: Over/Under 107.5 rushing yards

For fantasy owners, 2010 has been a disappointing year (Johnson predicted 2,500 rushing yards last summer and rushed for 2,006 yards in 2009), as the reigning Offensive Player of the Year has topped 70 rushing yards just twice over his last six games.

But here’s the rub: the Indianapolis Colts are surrendering an average of 159.0 rushing yards per game on the road this season. Here’s the rundown:

Week 1 (@Houston): Arian Foster, 33 carries, 231 yards
Week 3 (@Denver): Laurence Maroney, 12 carries, 24 yards
Week 4 (@Jacksonville): Maurice Jones-Drew, 26 carries, 105 yards
Week 6 (@Washington): Ryan Torain, 20 carries, 100 yards
Week 9 (@Philadelphia): LeSean McCoy, 16 carries, 95 yards
Week 11 (@New England): BenJarvus Green-Ellis, 21 carriers, 96 yards

CJ2K is currently averaging 19.7 carriers (seventh-most in NFL) per game and 4.3 yards per carry, which comes out to 84.7 rushing yards per game.

But I’ve got a feeling that a Thursday night, primetime showdown with a hated divisional rival is just what Johnson needs to put up one of those vintage 2009 performances that are still fresh in our minds.

I’m rolling the dice and going OVER.

You?

Hit me up on Twitter: @JoeFortenbaugh

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