August 30, 2013 - Joe Fortenbaugh
How to survive NFL survivor pools
A staple in offices and fraternity houses around the country, the NFL survivor pool appears, on its face, to be a far simpler challenge than the one offered by its big brother, the March Madness bracket. The rules are surprisingly elementary: Pick one NFL winner each week from the list of games on the schedule. Point spreads do not apply. The only catch is that you can’t use the same team twice.
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Yeah, well, tell that to the thousands of people who selected the New England Patriots in Week 2 last season, only to watch the Arizona Cardinals pull out a stunner at Gillette Stadium, 20-18.How to Survive NFL Survivor Pools
Successfully running the 17-week gauntlet of an NFL survivor pool is about as effortless and relaxing as a night spent on the North Col. You’ve got to have a plan in a place and you’ve got to possess an understanding of which pitfalls to avoid over the course of the four-month challenge if you want to have any chance of emerging in the black. Luckily, with some help from our good friends at Killer Sports.com, we’ve devised a set of rules to provide you with an edge for the 2013 survivor season. In addition, we’ve got our top Week 1 selection listed at the end of this article. RULE 1: Home is where the heart is The heavy hitters expected to eclipse the double-digit win mark this season while making a run at the Super Bowl—Denver, San Francisco, etc—play just as many games at home during the regular season as they do on the road. Shockingly, this fact holds true for the rest of the National Football League as well. So why opt to ride with a road team and all its baggage (travel, unfamiliar weather conditions) when you can simply select a comfortable team playing within its home confines? Since 2003, home teams are 1,463-1,095-2 (.572) during the regular season. That record alone is enough to provide us with a noticeable edge in our survivor selections. But it gets even better… RULE 2: Pay attention to what’s happening in Las Vegas There’s no reason to panic here because you don’t need to possess the insight of a seasoned professional gambler to take advantage of what Las Vegas is trying to tell us. Utilizing the point spread for your weekly survivor selections is, in our opinion, the most effective weapon one can possesses within their arsenal. We’ve already established the need to target teams playing at home because it’s an easy rule to remember with a built-in edge. But if we dig a little deeper… Since 2003, home favorites of seven or more points are 530-107-1 (.832). And for an even bigger edge… Since 2003, home favorites of ten or more points are 242-33-1 (.880). Good luck to anyone attempting to unearth a trend that carries a more significant edge than the two you just read. While certainly no guarantee, backing big home favorites has proven to be extremely beneficial to survivor participants over the last ten years. This doesn’t mean that a 13-point home favorite should be selected sans any additional research, but these options should definitely rank at the top of your weekly list. In addition (for those willing to invest the time), the Las Vegas point spread can also serve to educate us on which teams are receiving the most support from the guys who do this for a living. CLICK HERE to check out the NFP’s full array of point spreads (pay attention to the opening line and current lines to see which way the money is flowing) and CLICK HERE to examine which teams are feeling the most love from the betting community. RULE 3: Fade the bad teams Spending your precious free time on the hunt for winners is too narrow-minded of an approach to employ in the survivor game. You should pay just as much attention attempting to identify the teams most likely to lose if you want to advance into the month of December.ICONDarren McFadden and the Raiders are a solid PLAY AGAINST option in 2013.
The Seahawks have emerged victorious in ten of their last 11 games played at CenturyLink Field.