Monday Night Special
New England Patriots (2-1, 0-1 road) at Miami Dolphins (2-1, 0-1 home)
Monday, October 4, 2010
Time: 8:30pm eastern
Weather: 72 degrees with a 10% chance of precipitation at kickoff
Opening Line: Patriots -1/46
Current Line: Patriots -1/48
Last Meeting: In Miami on December 6, 2009 (Dolphins 22, Patriots 21)
Note: Since 2005, Miami is 2-3 straight up at home against New England.
Recent Trends (Provided by our friends at Covers.com)
ATS: Against the spread
Head to head
Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
New England Patriots
Patriots are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 4.
Patriots are 22-7-1 ATS in their last 30 games in October.
Patriots are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 games as a road favorite.
Patriots are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Dolphins are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog.
Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss.
Dolphins are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. AFC East.
Dolphins are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog of 0.5-3.0.
Analysis: The 2-1 New England Patriots head to Sun Life Stadium in Week 4 after a 38-30 win over the Buffalo Bills at Gillette Stadium last Sunday. Waiting for them will be a Miami Dolphins squad that is hoping to rebound after dropping a 31-23 contest to the New York Jets last Sunday night.
The key for the Miami offense will be to get wide receiver Brandon Marshall involved as much as possible. The former Denver Bronco caught a season-high ten passes for 166 yards and one touchdown against the Jets last Sunday night. In the process, the Dolphins rolled up 23 points, their highest total of the season. This task shouldn’t be too hard to accomplish, as the Patriots currently rank 30th in the league in pass defense (315.7 yds/gm).
In addition, a healthy dose of running back Ronnie Brown could do wonders for the Dolphins as well. Since entering the league in 2005, Miami is undefeated against New England when Brown runs for over 100 yards.
On the flip side, the key for Tom Brady and the Patriots will be to top the magical 20-point mark. Since 2005, New England is 6-2 against the Dolphins when scoring 20 or more points. In addition, the Pats will need to keep Brady as clean as possible in the pocket on Monday night. This season, the Dolphins are 2-0 when recording at least one sack in a game, but 0-1 when failing to do so.
Prediction: This game falls right into my wheelhouse as it features a home underdog in a prime time, division rivalry game (the same situation as last Monday night, when Green Bay traveled to Chicago).
Pick: Dolphins +1 (Current Monday night record: 2-2)
Leave your picks in the comments section below.