NFL Totals Report: 2 picks for Week 13
What better way to get this Sunday started than with two picks and breakdowns from our good friend Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis.com?
Warren went 1-2 with his Week 12 selections, but is still a healthy 10-8 this season in his picks for the National Football Post. He’s back Sunday to offer up his thoughts on two big games that get underway at 1:00pm, so consider class officially in session.
To check out more or Warren’s great work, CLICK HERE to head over to his website.
CLICK HERE to check out the Week 13 lines.
NEW YORK JETS (6-5, 1-4 road) at WASHINGTON REDSKINS (4-7, 2-3 home)
Time: 1:00pm ET
Opening line: O/U 37.5
Current line: O/U 38.5
Current betting trends: 70% of the public is betting the OVER.
New York Jets: The OVER is 7-4 in 11 games played this season.
Washington Redskins: The UNDER is 7-4 in 11 games played this season.
1. The OVER is 5-1 in the Jets’ last six games as a road favorite.
2. The OVER is 4-1 in the Jets’ last five games in the month of December.
3. The UNDER is 8-1 in the Redskins’ last nine games against a team with a winning record.
4. The UNDER is 11-5 in the Redskins’ last 16 games as an underdog.
Warren Sharp says: “Mark Sanchez threw four touchdown passes last week against the Bills and while he earned the dubious distinction of being the first Jets quarterback since Joe Namath to throw for four TDs on less than 50% completions, the fact is, since 2010 in games after Sanchez throws for three or more touchdowns, the Jets OVERS are 4-0 if totaled 40 or less and go over by 12 points per game. The coaches dial up more for Sanchez in the passing game as he just had a successful outing.
Over bettors will jump for joy if Sanchez can deliver another big week.
His counterpart is Rex Grossman, who has become extremely aggressive the last two weeks in the passing game. After a very solid outing against the Giants to open the season, Rex averaged just 6.1 YPA (yards per attempt) before being benched in the Philly game. He was replaced by backup John Beck, who actually performed much worse, throwing for just 5.6 YPA. Rex got the call to come back and start in Week 10 at Miami and over his last two games, Grossman has averaged 8 yards per attempt and delivered back to back OVERS.
This is the Jets’ lowest total of the season. Dating back to the end of 2009, the Jets have played in 11 road games totaled 41 or lower. Their OVERS are 10-1 in those 11 games. The only UNDER was vs. Tim Tebow on a Thursday night. It was Tebow ball, and that generally results in a very low scoring, fast moving game.”
Time: 1:00pm ET
Opening line: O/U 48
Current line: O/U 48.5
Current betting trends: 57% of the public is betting the OVER.
Indianapolis Colts: The OVER is 6-5 in 11 games played this season.
New England Patriots: The OVER is 6-5 in 11 games played this season.
1. The UNDER is 4-0 in the Colts’ last four games overall.
2. The OVER is 13-3 in the Colts’ last 16 road games.
3. The UNDER is 4-1 in the Patriots’ last five games as a favorite.
4. The UNDER is 9-4-2 in the Patriots’ last 15 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater.
Warren Sharp says: “The Patriots are huge favorites in this game and I have no doubt they will be able to put up their share of points. New England has the NFL’s top-ranked red zone offense and faces the 31st-ranked red zone defense on Sunday. So this game has the potential to get out of control and that’s what scares me the most about this total.
Breaking: Tom Brady and the Patriots like to score points. But can they reach the OVER on their own?
But what I like about this total is the fact that on a high over/under like this—while the Patriots could get there themselves—it likely will take points from the Colts to help the effort. And while I don't know how often the Colts will put up points with Dan Orlovsky in the red zone, the good news is that the Patriots defense ranks 28th in the league in red zone trips allowed. That means the Colts will hopefully be able to burn just enough time off the clock while they move the ball downfield to derail the Patriots plans of putting up 49 points on them and single handedly sending this game over.
We do have a few trends working in our favor. First, teams who are favored by 15+ points and play a bad offense that scores fewer than 15 points per game have seen UNDERS go 20-7 from October onward if the game is totaled above 34. It's basically supporting the notion that it is hard for one team to send a game OVER on it's own and while it does happen, it's not the norm.
Since 2009, the Patriots UNDERS are 4-1 at home in the second half of the season against bad offenses. And lastly, New England’s UNDERS are 9-1 as a home double-digit favorite since 2007 in the second half of the season if the total is at 48 or lower.”
For more great insight, follow Warren Sharp on Twitter: @SharpFootball
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