NFL Totals Report: 2 picks for Week 14
Kickoff is less than an hour away, so we’ll dispel with the fancy introductions today and will just get right down to business.
Our good friend Warren Sharp from the website Sharp Football Analysis.com was kind enough to lend us some insight into two games he’s been keeping a close eye on this week. Warren went 1-1 last week and is now 11-9 overall since he began sharing his thoughts with the National Football Post.
CLICK HERE to check out all of the Week 14 lines.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (9-3, 4-2 road) at WASHINGTON REDSKINS (4-8, 2-4 home)
Time: 1:00pm ET
Opening line: O/U 48
Current line: O/U 47.5
Current betting trends: 74% of the public is betting the OVER.
New England Patriots: The OVER is 7-5 in 12 games played this season.
Washington Redskins: The UNDER is 7-5 in 12 games played this season.
1. The OVER is 19-7 in the Patriots’ last 26 games as a favorite.
2. The OVER is 6-2 in the Patriots’ last eight games against a team with a losing record.
3. The UNDER is 8-2 in the Redskins’ last 10 games against a team with a winning record.
4. The UNDER is 13-6 in the Redskins’ last 19 games overall.
Warren Sharp says: “The Redskins will be without perhaps their two most vital components on offense for this one, as tight end Fred Davis and left tackle Trent Williams have been suspended for four games by the NFL. Washington’s offense definitely will be limited in some ways as a result. The Redskins have the seventh-rated red zone defense, which is the best that the Patriots have faced all season. Since Week 1, New England has faced the Nos. 32, 31, 30, 27, 26, 25, 21, 19, 17 and 15 rated red zone defenses.
How many points will Rex Grossman and the Redskins offense generate on Sunday?
The Patriots defense is very bad, but the good news is that while they may let the Redskins march up and down the field, they are ranked second in the league in interceptions and Washington quarterback Rex Grossman tends to throw picks to teams who are opportunistic. In addition, when they do get inside the red zone, the Redskins offense converts the seventh-lowest percentage in the league, even lower than the Colts. In Washington home games over the last two years, only two totals have been set above 44 (vs. GB and vs. Phi) and both games went well under the total.”
BUFFALO BILLS (5-7, 1-5 road) at SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (5-7, 3-3 home)
Time: 4:15pm ET
Opening line: O/U 46.5
Current line: O/U 48.5
Current betting trends: 82% of the public is betting the OVER.
Buffalo Bills: The OVER is 8-3-1 in 12 games played this season.
San Diego Chargers: The OVER is 6-6 in 12 games played this season.
1. The OVER is 6-0-1 in the Bills’ last seven road games.
2. The OVER is 7-0-1 in the Bills’ last eight games as an underdog.
3. The OVER is 4-1 in the Chargers’ last five games following a straight-up win.
4. The OVER is 9-4-1 in the Chargers’ last 14 games played in the month of December.
Warren Sharp says: “The Chargers have just played two very "under" teams over the last two weeks in Denver (w/ Tebow) and Jacksonville. Prior to those limited offenses, the Chargers allowed 30 points per game on average to teams w/ varying amounts of offense, including Kansas City, the New York Jets, Green Bay, Oakland and Chicago.
Rivers and the Bolts could catch fire against the Bills in Week 14.
The San Diego offense is finally healthy and they added LT Gaither to the mix to provide Rivers with some help on his blind side. The backfield, wideouts and tight ends are the healthiest they’ve been all year. The main concern for Rivers has been protection and time in the pocket. Fortunately, the Bills are dead last in the league in sacks and have registered a total of just two sacks in their last four games.
The Bills have played a number of stingy defenses the last few weeks (New York Jets twice, Dallas, Miami and Tennessee) and have struggled, but the Chargers have the league's 30th-ranked defense in terms of efficiency and are 31st in pass defense. The Bills defense is 28th in terms of defensive efficiency. Both teams are ranked 26th or worse in opponent QB rating and defensive yards/attempt. In addition, both are bad in third down defense. The Bills have the league's worst red zone defense. Meanwhile, the Chargers are 26th in red zone defense. Offensively, both are ranked in the top half of the league once they enter the red zone.”
For more great insight, follow Warren Sharp on Twitter: @SharpFootball
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