NFL totals report: 3 picks for Week 9
Wednesday afternoon means it’s time for us to once again check in with our good friend Warren Sharp from Sharp Football Analysis.com for a breakdown on some of the best over/under numbers heading into this weekend’s action.
For those of you who may be new to this column, Warren’s website has been up and running for the last six years and the computer program he developed to analyze NFL totals has predicted winners 65% of the time, with over 350 plays issued. He’s also gone 5-3 over the last three weeks in games he’s broken down for the National Football Post.
What Warren Sharp has noticed:
(Editor’s note: Pay special attention to the last paragraph of this section.)
“As I predicted in last week's article, UNDERS were out in full force once again, going 9-4 in Week 8. After seeing OVERS cash in four of the first five weeks of the season, UNDERS have led the way for three straight weeks. Last week's average closing total was 44.5, still far too high. This week, the average total is once again 44.5, but I think we'll see a more even distribution this time around.
The highlight this week is getting the best numbers. As of Wednesday morning at Pinnacle in regards to NFL sides, five games have moved at least one point, while six games seen no movement. However, in regards to totals, ten games have moved at least one point and only two games have not moved at all. This tells you two things:
1. Linesmakers trust their sides much more than their totals. Therefore, good totals guys have a significant edge in the market as their numbers are sharper than those set by the linesmakers.
2. Following a good total guy on his recommendations EARLY in the week is vital, as you will routinely be put on the best side of the number, and then will have the option to keep your +EV wager or get off of it.
It's for this reason I release totals to my clients starting Tuesday morning. As an example, this week on Tuesday morning I released six totals. Four of the six games have moved at least one point in the direction of my play already. And I always recap for my clients each week the numbers we got vs. the closing number, to see how much value we got vs. the line.
However, though most numbers have already moved, one key game is still available at a very playable number. I have one computer OVER play this week. It is just the second play of the season and these are undefeated the last three years and are 60-12 (83%) lifetime. These are very rare plays."
CLICK HERE to check out Warren's plays for Week 9 and be sure to enter the promo code Get Sharp for a 10% discount.
GREEN BAY PACKERS (7-0, 4-0 road) at SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (4-3, 3-0 home)
Time: 4:15pm eastern
Opening line: O/U 52
Current line: O/U 51
Betting trends: 52% of the public is currently betting the OVER.
Green Bay: OVER is 4-3 in seven games played this year.
San Diego: UNDER is 4-3 in seven games played this year.
1. The UNDER is 8-2 in the Packers’ last ten games as a road favorite.
2. The UNDER is 11-4 in the Packers’ last 15 road games.
3. The UNDER is 7-0 in the Chargers’ last seven home games.
4. The UNDER is 8-2 in the Chargers’ last ten games on grass.
Warren Sharp says: “The Chargers are known as a team with a dynamic offense who scores in bunches. But here are some little known facts about the Bolts:
The UNDER tends to cash when Philip Rivers and the Chargers play at home.
In home games since 2007, only eight NFL teams average a home posted total of greater than 44 points. Six of these organizations are dome teams, while the other two are the Chargers and the Patriots. However, of the 21 NFL teams who average posted home totals of at least 41 points, there is no team in the NFL who has seen more home UNDERS than the Chargers. Over 60% of San Diego’s home games have gone UNDER, which is third-most overall in the league, but first for teams averaging home totals of 41+ points.
San Diego’s last seven home games have gone UNDER and since 2007—with a posted home total above 47—their UNDERS are 7-1. The Chargers’ only OVER was a meaningless game played in Week 17.
Meanwhile, the Packers are coming off the bye and we know how teams have struggled scoring points off of their bye weeks in 2011. UNDERS are 14-4 this year for teams off a bye, going UNDER by a monstrous 8.5 points per game. And if the bye team is on the road, the UNDERS are 8-2, going UNDER by an average of 11 points per game.
When I released this to my clients on Tuesday, the total was 52. It is now down to 51, but still very playable.”
CINCINNATI BENGALS (5-2, 3-1 road) at TENNESSEE TITANS (4-3, 3-1 home)
Time: 4:05pm eastern
Opening line: O/U 40
Current line: O/U 42
Betting trends: 88% of the public is currently betting the OVER.
Cincinnati: OVER is 6-1 in seven games played this year.
Tennessee: OVER is 4-3 in seven games played this year.
1. The OVER is 4-0 in the Bengals’ last four road games.
2. The OVER is 4-1 in the Bengals’ last five games as an underdog.
3. The OVER is 7-3 in the Titans’ last ten games on grass.
4. The OVER is 4-1 in the Titans’ last five games in November.
Warren Sharp says: “Both of these teams introduced new quarterbacks this season with young receiving units who took time to learn the offense. But both teams offensively are getting better and better.
A.J. Green and the Bengals continue to get better offensively.
First, lets examine the Bengals: Not only has their scoring increased, but the ever valuable “yards per point” stat has dramatically improved. Cincinnati averaged 19.25 yards per point over their first four games. However, over their last three contests, the Bengals have averaged an impressive 9.3 yards per point (lower is better).
The Titans have seen improvement as well: In their first three games, Tennessee averaged 19.3 yards per point, but over their last four outings, the team has averaged 15.3 yards per point. And keep in mind that this is despite having to deal with replacing star wideout Kenny Britt in those games.
I gave this to m y clients on Tuesday at 40.5 and the line has now moved through the key number of 41 and is at 41.5 or 42.”
BALTIMORE RAVENS (5-2, 1-2 road) at PITTSBURGH STEELERS (6-2, 4-0 home)
Time: 8:30pm eastern (Sunday night)
Opening line: O/U 42.5
Current line: O/U 41.5
Betting trends: 78% of the public is currently betting the UNDER.
Baltimore:</strong> OVER is 5-2 in seven games played this year.
Pittsburgh: OVER is 4-4 in eight games played this year.
1. The OVER is 6-2 in the Ravens’ last eight games overall.
2. The OVER is 9-3-1 in the Ravens’ last 13 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
3. The OVER is 5-0 in the Steelers’ last five games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0
4. The OVER is 7-3 in the Steelers’ last ten games against AFC opponents.
Warren Sharp says: “Since 2003, no team in the NFL sees more OVERS at home than the Steelers, as 62% of their games have gone OVER during that time span. Their average total for home games has been 39 and those outings have gone over by an average of three points per game.
In addition, totals set between 37-44 have an OVER record of 30-15.
ICONDefensive struggle? Not when Big Ben and the Steelers play host to the Ravens.
In 2011, the Steelers have so far hosted four teams at home and the UNDER is actually 3-1. The total in three of those games was set at 40.
Of the three games that went under: Seattle and Jacksonville are in the bottom six in the NFL in scoring offense this year and did not contribute to the OVER at all. And the New England total was lined very high (51.5), a number on which my computer liked the UNDER and the game went UNDER.
This game is against a Ravens team who, despite their offensive struggles this year, is still scoring an average of 26 points per game and has seen five OVERS and two UNDERS through seven outings.
The Steelers defense is coming off their most impressive performance of the year, surely giving us some value on the total, but they are very beat up. Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh offense is playing as well as it has all season. If the Steelers offense clicks and the defense allows Ray Rice to be productive early in the game, look for this one to go OVER, perhaps on a defensive score by Polamalu or Reed, two of the best ball hawking and aggressive safeties the NFL has to offer.”
Follow Warren Sharp on Twitter: @SharpFootball
Hit me up on Twitter: @JoeFortenbaugh