NFL totals report: 4 picks for Week 10
Our good friend Warren Sharp from the terrific website Sharp Football Analysis.com is back to help us pinpoint some of the best NFL totals for Week 10. Warren went 2-1 in his picks for the National Football Post last week, which puts his record for the season at 7-4.
For his clients, Warren went 13-5 in Week 9 (72%) and is now 30-18 on the season (63%) when picking NFL totals. So, yeah, we tend to listen to what he has to say.
CLICK HERE to check out all of the Week 10 sides and totals.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (2-6, 0-4 road) at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (0-9, 0-4 home)
Time: 1:00pm ET
Opening line: O/U 37
Current line: O/U 37.5
Betting trends: 67% of the public is currently betting the UNDER.
Jacksonville: UNDER is 7-1 in eight games played this year.
Indianapolis: OVER is 6-3 in nine games played this year.
1. The UNDER is 5-1 in the Jaguars’ last six games against AFC opponents.
2. The UNDER is 4-0 in the Jaguars’ last four road games.
3. The UNDER is 5-2 in the Colts’ last seven games as a home underdog.
4. The UNDER is 5-1 in the Colts’ last six games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
Warren Sharp says: “This play is solid on a number of fronts. The Colts offense has scored an average of only eight points per game over their last three outings, despite playing fairly average defenses in the Saints, Titans and Falcons. They now go up against the sixth-most efficient defense in the league in Jacksonville, who has allowed just 16 points per game in their last three contests, against solid offenses in Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Houston.
Rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert isn't exactly lighting up scoreboards this season.
On the other side of the ball, we know how bad the Colts defense has been this season, but these Jaguars are not the Falcons or the Titans, both of whom played to UNDERS the past two weeks with Indy. The Jags are the least efficient offense in the NFL, vastly behind even the Colts’ depleted offense. Jacksonville averages just 12 points per game and has scored over 16 points only one time in 2011.
Add on the fact that the Jaguars are off their bye and bye week teams—particularly bad teams—have seen a ton of UNDERS cash this season. In fact, teams at or below .500 off their bye have seen UNDERS go 8-1 this year by a solid 12 points per game.”
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (6-3, 2-3 road) at ATLANTA FALCONS (5-3, 2-1 home)
Time: 1:00pm ET
Opening line: O/U 51.5
Current line: O/U 50
Betting trends: 80% of the public is currently betting the OVER.
New Orleans: OVER is 5-4 in eight games played this year.
Atlanta: UNDER is 5-3 in eight games played this year.
1. The UNDER is 12-2 in the Saints’ last 14 games against NFC South opponents.
2. The UNDER is 5-1 in the Saints’ last six games against teams with a winning record.
3. The UNDER is 4-0 in the Falcons’ last four games overall.
4. The UNDER is 4-1 in the Falcons’ last five games against NFC opponents.
Warren Sharp says: “On the line, 51 is an important number that was missed if you were not a client on board this past Tuesday when I released some of my Week 10 plays, but I would still take 50.
The Falcons have seen four straight games go under and are two weeks removed from a bye week game that showed their defense is strong and healthy. Atlanta is at home where they have seen eight of ten games totaled above 45 go UNDER since Matt Ryan and Mike Smith came to town. The Falcons are coming off a game against the Colts and teams who just played Indianapolis with a total set above 41 have gone UNDER 5-1 this season.
Looking at the Saints, a clear pattern is evident. When New Orleans plays teams with a bad defense (Green Bay, Carolina, Indianapolis and St. Louis), the OVERS are 4-0. But against respectable defenses, (Chicago, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay and Houston) UNDERS are 4-1. Atlanta has a solid defense overall, as this team currently ranks as the fifth most efficient defense in the NFL. After allowing 25+ points per game in four of their first five outings, the Falcons held very explosive offenses such as Carolina and Detroit to 17 or fewer points. They are allowing just 13 points per game over their last three contests.”
BALTIMORE RAVENS (6-2, 2-2 road) at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (2-6, 1-2 home)
Time: 4:05pm ET
Opening line: O/U 39.5
Current line: O/U 40.5
Betting trends: 58% of the public is currently betting the UNDER.
Baltimore: OVER is 6-2 in eight games played this year.
Seattle: OVER is 4-4 in eight games played this year.
1. The OVER is 4-1 in the Ravens’ last five road games.
2. The OVER is 8-2-1 in the Ravens’ last 11 games played in Week 10.
3. The OVER is 5-1 in the Seahawks’ last six games played in the month of November.
4. The OVER is 7-1 in the Seahawks’ last eight games following an ATS win.
Warren Sharp says: “A potentially messy game could unfold in the Pacific Northwest on Sunday as Baltimore and Seattle are looking at a 50% chance of rain. But rain does not make a game go under. And these two teams set up nicely for one another.
Against non-divisional opponents, Pete Carroll's Seahawks love to go OVER.
Seattle at home has been a boon for OVERS since Pete Carroll came to town. Just remember this: Seattle's home divisional games go under and their non-divisional games go over. Under Carroll, Seattle's OVERS are 0-4 in divisional home games with an average total of 41 and an average UNDER winning by 12 points per game.
However, Seattle's OVERS are 8-0 against non-divisional opponents with an average total of 42 and an average OVER winning by 13 points per game. Carroll has his offense play aggressively, doing just enough to put up 10-20 points per game while the other team does the rest. Non-divisional opponents are averaging over 31 points per game in Seattle.
Over the last two seasons, after playing the Steelers, the Ravens’ OVERS are 3-0. Baltimore spends so much effort on defense in that war that it's only natural for a slight letdown the following week—especially when you have to travel across t he country. This is the Ravens’ third matchup against the NFC West this season. They beat the Rams 37-7 in a game that eclipsed the total and they beat the Cardinals 30-27 in another game that gave the OVER backers a nice payday.
The Seahawks’ defense did not disappoint last week and earned me and my clients a win on the UNDER, but this week at home I look for the total to go OVER.”
HOUSTON TEXANS (6-3, 2-2 road) at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (4-4, 3-2 home)
Time: 1:00pm ET
Opening line: O/U 45.5
Current line: O/U 45.5
Betting trends: 54% of the public is currently betting the OVER.
Houston: UNDER is 6-3 in nine games played this year.
Tampa Bay: The UNDER is 4-4 in eight games played this year.
1. The UNDER is 5-1 in the Texans’ last six games as a favorite.
2. The UNDER is 5-2 in the Texans’ last seven games on grass.
3. The UNDER is 5-0 in the Buccaneers’ last five games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
4. The UNDER is 16-7 in the Buccaneers’ last 23 games against a team with a winning record.
Warren Sharp says: “Since 2008, the Buccaneers have seen just seven home games totaled at 44 or higher. In those seven games, the UNDER is 7-0, going UNDER by eight points per game. In addition, Tampa Bay is off of a date with the Saints and they typically trend heavily toward the UNDER in these weeks: UNDERS are 10-2 after facing the Saints since 2005 and are 4-0 the last four games. Overall, all three of the Buccaneers’ most recent games have cashed for UNDER bettors.
The Texans have been a strong UNDER team on the season so far, as Houston has seen twice as many UNDERS as OVERS in 2011.”
Follow Warren Sharp on Twitter: @SharpFootball
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