Packers-Lions Thanksgiving betting primer

GREEN BAY PACKERS (10-0, 5-0 road) at DETROIT LIONS (7-3, 3-2 home)

Time: 12:30pm ET (FOX)
Opening line: Green Bay -6.5/56
Current line: Green Bay -6/56
Current betting trends: 64% of the public is on Green Bay, 80% on the OVER.

Green Bay Packers: 7-3 against the spread, OVER is 7-3
Detroit Lions: 6-3-1 against the spread, OVER is 7-3

CLICK HERE for the Thanksgiving Day lines.

INTERESTING TRENDS

1. The Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning record.
2. The Packers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite.
3. The OVER is 4-0 in the Packers’ last four games overall.
4. The Lions are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog.
5. The Lions are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games.
6. The OVER is 6-1 in the Lions’ last seven games as a home underdog.
7. The Packers are 7-3 ATS in their last ten games against Detroit.

KEY INJURIES

GREEN BAY PACKERS: OUT: T Chad Clifton (hamstring), QUESTIONABLE: RB James Starks (knee, ankle), PROBABLE: LB Desmond Bishop (calf), WR Greg Jennings (knee), LB Clay Matthews (ankle), T Marshall Newhouse (knee), G Josh Sitton (knee), LB Frank Zombo (hamstring)

DETROIT LIONS: OUT: RB Jahvid Best (concussion), P Ryan Donahue (right quadricep), DOUBTFUL: DE Lawrence Jackson (thigh), QUESTIONABLE: DT Corey Williams (calf), DE Willie Young (ankle), PROBABLE: WR Rashied Davis (hamstring), S Chris Harris (ankle), WR Calvin Johnson (ankle), LB DeAndre Levy (elbow), RB Maurice Morris (ankle), S Amari Spievey (toe), QB Matthew Stafford (right finger), WR Maurice Stovall (shoulder)

ANALYSIS

If the Lions plan on snapping their seven-game Thanksgiving Day losing streak, they’ll have to avoid getting off to a slow start. Detroit has been outscored 145-110 in the first half this season (-35, 24th in NFL) while the Packers have blasted opponents 189-118 during the first two quarters of action (+71, 2nd in NFL). Just for reference, the first-half line for this game is currently Green Bay -3.5.

Matthew StaffordCan Matthew Stafford and the Lions knock the Packers from their undefeated perch?

This game opened at Green Bay -6.5 but despite 64% of the bets coming in on the Packers, the line has dropped to GB -6. That means some of the big money is getting down on Jim Schwartz and the Lions. Remember, Aaron Rodgers and company are just 2-2 against the spread over their last four games and 3-2 ATS on the road this season.

While Las Vegas shops are sure to see some respectable volume on the Lions, the same cannot be said about the UNDER, as 80% of the public is currently betting this game to go OVER the total (55.5). And why not? The OVER is 14-6 in the 20 combined games these two teams have played in 2011, as Green Bay (35.5 pts/gm, 1st) and Detroit (30.1 pts/gm, 3rd) feature two of the highest scoring teams in the NFL this season.

Be advised that the Lions are 0-7 ATS in their last seven Thursday games and 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games played in the month of November. If they want to cover and possibly beat the undefeated Packers, Detroit is going to need a superb effort on both sides of the football.

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Upcoming Games

Aug 5th, 8:00 PM

Dallas +1 -110

Pittsburgh -1 -110

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Aug 12th, 7:30 PM

Washington -2 -110

New England +2 -110

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Aug 12th, 7:30 PM

Pittsburgh +1 -110

Philadelphia -1 -110

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