Saints at 49ers

Week 3

New Orleans Saints (1-0, 0-0 road) at San Francisco 49ers (0-1, 0-0 home)

Monday, September 20, 2010
8:30pm eastern
Weather: 63 degrees with 10% chance of precipitation at kickoff
Opening Line: Saints -4.5/44.5
Current Line: Saints -6/43.5

Last Meeting: In New Orleans on September 28, 2008 (Saints 31, 49ers 17)

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ATS: Against the spread

Against each other

Over is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in San Francisco.
Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings in San Francisco.

New Orleans Saints

Saints are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in September.
Saints are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games on grass.
Saints are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Saints are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

San Francisco 49ers

49ers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games.
49ers are 8-2-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
49ers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in September.
49ers are 0-2-3 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.

Analysis: The 1-0 New Orleans Saints hit the road after a 14-9 win over the Minnesota Vikings and ten days of rest to travel to San Francisco to take on a 49ers team that is coming off a humiliating 31-6 loss at Seattle.

In 2009, the Saints went 7-1 on the road and had an average margin of victory of 14.0 points per game. Meanwhile, the 49ers went 6-2 at home last season with an average margin of victory of 16.3 points per game. The fact that San Francisco is coming off a bad loss and will be playing in front of a crowd that will see Hall of Famer Jerry Rice’s number retired Monday night should be noted.

In New Orleans’ 13 wins last season, nine of those victories came by ten or more points. However, in San Francisco’s eight losses, five of those defeats came by six points or less.

Prediction: The 49ers are going to put up a fight after a great week of practice. With thoughts of a divisional title on their minds, head coach Mike Singletary’s bunch doesn’t want to get out to a 0-2 start. The problem is that they’re taking on one of the most dangerous and well-rounded teams in the league. I recognize that this game smells like a trap, but there is no way I’m ever putting my money on Alex Smith over Drew Brees—and that’s the bottom line.

Pick: Saints -6

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