Start 'em, Sit 'em, Smash 'em
While the Sunday live chat is no more, I’m still available to answer any and all fantasy questions throughout the week on twitter @JoeFortenbaugh if you use the hashtags #FSTLV and #GMCFF. Fire over some good ones and they just may end up on the Fantasy Sports Network Sunday morning between 10:00am-12:00pm eastern.
WEEK 11 SURVIVOR PICKS
Last week: Baltimore (win), Green Bay (win), Tampa Bay (loss)
Plan A: Washington
Plan B: Pittsburgh
Plan C: Atlanta
--If you haven’t already used the San Diego Chargers, now is the time.
FADE OF THE WEEK
Last week: Detroit Lions (-2.5) over Miami Dolphins (win)
This week: Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5) over Seattle Seahawks
Analysis: The Chiefs should be laying the customary three points for home field advantage here, as this is a terrible spot for the Seahawks. From Seattle’s perspective, this is a non-conference road showdown that will take place one week before a home date with the division-leading Arizona Cardinals and just 11 days before the first of two meetings with hated rival San Francisco. Also worth noting is the fact that Kansas City has won three straight home contests by an average of 22.6 points per game.
Last week: 4-1
Season: 25-25 (.500)
The Big Puma and I are just about locked in on the following five selections:
HOUSTON TEXANS (+3) at Cleveland Browns
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (+3) at Chicago Bears
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-1.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks
WASHINGTON REDSKINS (-7.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
DETROIT LIONS (+2.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Also under consideration: Atlanta Falcons (+2) at Carolina Panthers, San Diego Chargers (-10) vs. Oakland Raiders, Pittsburgh Steelers (-6) at Tennessee Titans
START ‘EM UP
Mark Sanchez, QB, Philadelphia Eagles (at Green Bay): Back to the well for the second week in a row as Sanchez and the Eagles are likely to find themselves caught in a shootout Sunday afternoon in Green Bay. With this game totaled at 55.5 points coupled with the Philadelphia secondary squeezed firmly within the crosshairs of an Aaron Rodgers thrashing, Sanchez and the Birds will need to throw early and often in this one in order to keep pace with the high-flying Packers. Expect another big game from the former New York Jet and his arsenal of playmakers.
Also start: Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons (at Carolina)
Mathews and the Bolts have something to prove following a three-game losing streak.
Ryan Mathews, RB, San Diego Chargers (vs. Oakland): Back in action for the first time since a sprained MCL sustained in Week 2 sent him to the sidelines, look for Mathews to reclaim the starting role—and at least 15 touches—in Sunday’s showdown with division rival Oakland, who is currently surrendering an average of 24.4 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs this season (third-most in NFL). The Chargers went into last week’s bye riding a three-game losing streak, so look for an aggressive effort from Mike McCoy’s crew as the Bolts begin their push for a return trip to the playoffs.
Pierre Garcon & DeSean Jackson, WRs, Washington Redskins (vs. Tampa Bay): Well rested thanks to a Week 10 bye, the Redskins return to the gridiron Sunday to face a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense that ranks 31st in the NFL against the pass (277.1 yds/gm) while giving up more fantasy points to opposing wide receivers than any other team in the business (29.6 pts/gm). Quarterback Robert Griffin III got his feet wet in Week 9 at Minnesota and has had two weeks to get ready for this one, so expect a solid effort from the Washington offense on Sunday.
Mark Ingram, RB, New Orleans Saints (vs. Cincinnati): Total swing-and-a-miss on the whole “sell high on Ingram” nonsense I was preaching last week, as the former Heisman Trophy winner eclipsed 100 rushing yards for the third consecutive game in last Sunday’s 27-24 overtime loss against San Francisco. Ingram is averaging a staggering 27.0 rushing attempts per outing during his lights out three-game run and should find more success in Week 11 against a Cincinnati defense that currently ranks 31st in the NFL against the run (143.0 yds/gm) while permitting an average of 23.9 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs (fourth-most in NFL).
Roddy White, WR, Atlanta Falcons (at Carolina):
White at home in 2014: 6.3 targets, 4.3 receptions, 59.3 yards, .333 touchdowns
White on the road in 2014: 9.6 targets, 5.2 receptions, 62.6 yards, .600 touchdowns
Also note that the Panthers are currently surrendering an average of 25.6 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers this season (seventh-most in NFL).
Kyle Rudolph, TE, Minnesota Vikings (at Chicago): Remember this guy? Rudolph hasn’t seen the field since being sidelined by a Week 3 groin injury, but returns this Sunday to face a dumpster fire of a defense in the Chicago Bears who are permitting more fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season than any other team in the business (13.4 pts/gm). For those of you in need of some production at the tight end position moving forward, take note that Rudolph is currently still available in 54 percent of Yahoo! leagues.
Kansas City Chiefs, D/ST (vs. Seattle): This is a poor spot for the Seahawks, who are playing a non-conference road game one week before the start of back-to-back divisional showdowns with Arizona and San Francisco. In addition, Seattle is averaging just 21.7 points per game on the road this season with nine sacks surrendered, while Kansas City is permitting an average of only 14.2 points per game at home in 2014 with 17 sacks recorded. Russell Wilson has one of the least impressive receiving units in the National Football League at his disposal this year and that issue will be on full display when the crowd noise at Arrowhead Stadium reaches a deafening tone on Sunday afternoon.
Also start: San Diego Chargers (vs. Oakland)
SIT ‘EM DOWN
Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks (at Kansas City): You can read our rationale on why to sit Wilson in the “Fade of the Week” section at the top of this article or in the “Kansas City Chiefs” breakdown directly above. But in addition to all of that, take note that the Seattle signal-caller has thrown for over 200 yards just once in his last five outings, with just three touchdown passes during that same time span.
Rashad Jennings, RB, New York Giants (vs. San Francisco): Jennings owners are no doubt thrilled about the fact that the Giants running back will return to the gridiron this Sunday after missing significant time with a sprained MCL. Just be sure to taper your expectations, as the 49ers currently rank seventh in the NFL in run defense (91.2 yds/gm) while surrendering an average of just 14.0 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs this season (fourth-fewest in NFL). In addition, take note that San Francisco has allowed just two rushing touchdowns over its last six games.
Wilson and the Seahawks are in a real bad spot Sunday at Kansas City.
Michael Crabtree, WR, San Francisco 49ers (at NY Giants): Talk about a bust of a season. The former top-10 draft pick has made exactly one trip to the end zone over his last six starts, has yet to top 82 receiving yards in a game this season and is averaging a pedestrian 7.5 targets per game in 2014. Add in the fact that the Giants are currently surrendering an average of just 20.0 fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts this season (seventh-fewest in NFL) and you’ve got the makings of yet another dud performance from the former Texas Tech standout. It really is amazing how infrequently quarterback Colin Kaepernick is looking Crabtree’s way this year.
Joique Bell, RB, Detroit Lions (at Arizona): Bell hasn’t topped 75 rushing yards in a game all season, hasn’t found the end zone in either of his last two outings and runs into an Arizona Cardinals team on Sunday that currently ranks third in the NFL against the run (78.6 yds/gm) while permitting an average of just 13.0 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs in 2014 (tied-fewest in NFL). There are better options out there for Week 11.
Marques Colston, WR, New Orleans Saints (vs. Cincinnati): Between Jimmy Graham nabbing all the red zone targets and rookie Brandin Cooks functioning as the team’s possession receiver, there’s little meat left on the bone for Colston to chew on this season. The 31-year-old from Hofstra has scored just one touchdown in 2014, is averaging a paltry 3.3 receptions per game and faces a Cincinnati defense on Sunday that is giving up an average of just 17.3 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers this season (second-fewest in NFL). Not only should you avoid Colston in Week 11, you should consider dropping him to clear some roster space for a receiver with a higher ceiling.
Mychal Rivera, TE, Oakland Raiders (at San Diego): The second-year tight end out of Tennessee has turned some heads as of late by scoring three touchdowns over his last two starts, but Sunday at San Diego makes for a bad matchup against a Chargers defense that is permitting an average of only 5.5 fantasy points per game to opposing TEs this season (fourth-fewest in NFL). Also worth noting is the fact that the last time Rivera faced the Chargers, the Oakland tight end was completely blanked on just three targets.
Arizona Cardinals, D/ST (vs. Detroit): One of the hottest units in the league, owners need to be really careful about backing the Cardinals in Week 11. This unit is as stout as they come against the run, but Arizona currently ranks 30th in the league against the pass (274.2 yds/gm), which is a scary proposition with Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate coming to town.
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