Thursday Night Action
CHICAGO BEARS (6-3, 3-1 road) at MIAMI DOLPHINS (5-4, 1-3 home)
Thursday, November 18, 2010
Time: 8:20pm eastern
Weather: 74 degrees with 20% chance of precipitation
Opening Line: Dolphins -3/39.5
Current Line: Dolphins -1/40
Last Meeting: In Chicago on November 5, 2006 (Dolphins 31, Bears 13)
Note: Miami quarterbacks Chad Pennington and Chad Henne will not play Thursday night. Tyler Thigpen will get the start.
Recent Trends (provided by our friends at Covers.com)
Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
Bears are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Bears are 2-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Bears are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games.
Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Dolphins are 7-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Dolphins are 10-27 ATS in their last 37 games as a favorite.
Dolphins are 6-25 ATS in their last 31 games as a home favorite.
Analysis: Miami quarterback Tyler Thigpen has starting experience, but will one day of practice with the Dolphins’ first-string be enough to top a Chicago team that ranks fourth in the NFL in total defense (301.9 yds/gm) and second in run defense (82.3 yds/gm)?
Remember, the Fish are just 1-3 at home this season and rank 19th in the NFL in rush offense (104.4 yds/gm). If they’re going to score points, it’s going to have to come from Thigpen and the wide receivers.
Here’s the key for Thursday’s game: In Miami’s five wins they have given up 20 or fewer points each time. In their four losses, the Dolphins have surrendered 23 or more points each time.
The Bears are averaging 19.4 points per game and 18.8 points per game on the road.
Apparently if you can’t top 20 points, you can’t beat the Dolphins.
Prediction: A close game with the potential for a high-scoring second half.
Current Record: 8-4-1
Pick: This is a tough one to call, but I’m going with the Bears and their defense.
Who ya got?