Week 10 college football betting primer
I’m going to switch up the venue this weekend in the hopes of turning around this thoroughly disappointing season. However, if you see me throwing chairs at the MGM Grand on Saturday, you’ll know that plan fell apart rather quickly.
Last week: 2-3
Season: 23-27 (.460)
BYU Cougars (4-4, 2-2 road) at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (5-3, 4-0 home)
When: Saturday, 3:30pm ET
Open: BYU -7
Current: BYU -4 (MGM)
BYU in 2014: 2-6 ATS, 6-2 to the OVER
Middle Tennessee in 2014: 5-3 ATS, 5-2-1 to the OVER
Analysis: This play is all about the situation, as Middle Tennessee is coming off a bye and has yet another bye next weekend, giving the Blue Raiders nothing to focus on other than revenge for last season’s 37-10 loss at BYU. As if this spot wasn’t already tasty enough, this weekend marks BYU’s third road contest in four weeks. Note that the Cougars are banged up and have dropped four straight matchups, not to mention the fact that the team hasn’t covered a spread in any of their last six outings. Middle Tennessee, however, is 7-1 ATS over its last eight home games.
Notable trends: BYU is 2-7 ATS over its last nine road games while Middle Tennessee is 5-1 ATS over its last six contests following a bye week.
Pick: Middle Tennessee (+4)
South Alabama Jaguars (5-2, 3-0 road) at Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (4-3, 3-1 home)
When: Saturday, 5:00pm ET
Open: UL-Lafayette -5.5
Current: UL-Lafayette -6.5 (Wynn)
South Alabama in 2014: 3-4 ATS, 5-1-1 to the UNDER
UL-Lafayette in 2014: 3-4 ATS, 4-3 to the OVER
Analysis: South Alabama’s current four-game winning streak looks impressive until you realize that Idaho, Appalachian State, Georgia State and Troy are a combined 5-25 on the season. Throw in the Jaguars’ season-opening win over Kent State and that gives South Alabama five victories against opponents who are a combined 6-32 on the year. Meanwhile, the Jaguars were outscored by more than three touchdowns in each of their defeats this season (Mississippi State, Georgia Southern) and currently rank 98th in the country in scoring (24.3 pts/gm). We’ll side with the favorite in this one.
Notable trends: South Alabama is 2-5 ATS over its last seven games against teams with a winning record while UL-Lafayette is 14-5 ATS over its last 19 contests against teams with a winning record.
Pick: UL-Lafayette (-6.5)
Arkansas Razorbacks (4-4, 1-1 road) at #1 Mississippi State Bulldogs (7-0, 4-0 home)
When: Saturday, 7:15pm ET
Open: Mississippi State -11.5
Current: Mississippi State -10.5 (Westgate)
Arkansas in 2014: 6-2 ATS, 6-2 to the OVER
Mississippi State in 2014: 5-2 ATS, 4-3 to the OVER
Dan Mullen's Bulldogs survived a scare against Kentucky last weekend.
Analysis: Arkansas is 0-4 against SEC opposition in 2014 and runs into a top-ranked Bulldogs team on Saturday that is coming off a wakeup call in the form of a 45-31 too-close-for-comfort victory at Kentucky. Expect a much better effort in this one from a Mississippi State team that is 7-1 ATS over its last eight conference games, 6-1 ATS over its last seven home contests and 10-2 ATS over its last 12 matchups overall. With a cakewalk game against UT-Martin on deck and the Kentucky scare fresh in their minds, there’s no way Mississippi State gets caught sleepwalking in this one.
Notable trends: The home team is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings between these two schools.
Pick: Mississippi State (-10.5)
#10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-1, 1-1 road) at Navy Midshipmen (4-4, 2-3 home)
When: Saturday, 8:00pm ET
Open: Notre Dame -15.5
Current: Notre Dame -13.5 (Stations)
Notre Dame in 2014: 5-2 ATS, 5-2 to the UNDER
Navy in 2014: 3-5 ATS, 6-1 to the UNDER
Look for Golson and the Irish to come out firing on Saturday.
Analysis: Despite a razor-thin loss at Florida State, Notre Dame is still very much alive in the hunt for the college football playoff. The Irish have had two weeks to both get over that last-second defeat in Tallahassee and prepare for a Navy team that just notched a respectable 41-31 win over San Jose State last Saturday. However, Navy has only played one team this season with the pedigree of the Irish and that resulted in a 34-17 loss at Ohio State back in Week 1. In our opinion, a rested Everett Golson will be too much for the Midshipmen to handle for 60 minutes. Take note that Notre Dame is 4-1 ATS over its last five road games.
Notable trends: Notre Dame is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games at Navy.
Pick: Notre Dame (-13.5)
#12 Arizona Wildcats (6-1, 3-0 road) at #22 UCLA Bruins (6-2, 1-2 home)
When: Saturday, 10:30pm ET
Open: UCLA -4.5
Current: UCLA -6.5 (Westgate)
Arizona in 2014: 3-4 ATS, 4-3 to the UNDER
UCLA in 2014: 1-7 ATS, 4-3-1 to the UNDER
Analysis: This is a bad matchup for an underachieving UCLA team that has covered only one spread in eight games this season. The Bruins secondary is surrendering an average of 267.7 passing yards per game this season, a number that jumps to 275.0 if you factor in only conference matchups. Meanwhile, Rich Rodriguez’s offense is averaging a rock-solid 348.4 passing yards per game and already has one marquee road win under its belt this season thanks to a 31-24 upset win at Oregon on October 2. In addition, note that UCLA is 1-4 ATS over its last five home games, 0-4 ATS over its last four conference matchups and 1-4 ATS over its last five showdowns against teams with a winning record. We’ll be playing Arizona on the moneyline here as well.
Notable trends: Arizona is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings between these two schools.
Pick: Arizona (+6.5, holding out for +7)
OTHER GAMES WE’RE PLAYING THIS WEEKEND
Georgia Bulldogs (-12.5) over Florida Gators
Kansas State Wildcats (-14) over Oklahoma State Cowboys
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