Week 10 Las Vegas market report

It took just over 24 hours to find out exactly how much Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers is worth to the Las Vegas point spread.

On Sunday afternoon, the Packers opened as a 10-point favorite at the LVH sports book for their Week 10 meeting with the Philadelphia Eagles. Shortly after the news broke that Rodgers would be out of action for at least the next three weeks, the line reappeared on the board at Green Bay -2.5, making Rodgers worth more than a touchdown to the Las Vegas line.

How many other players in the National Football League carry that much value?

Week 10 bye: Cleveland, Kansas City, New England, New York Jets


Home teams: 71-59-3 (.546)
Favorites: 69-61-3 (.530)
Home dogs: 26-24 (.520)
Home favorites: 45-35-3 (.562)
Overs: 74-58 (.560)

CLICK HERE to check out all of the current Week 10 lines.

Note: All lines courtesy of the LVH sports book in Las Vegas.

Philadelphia Eagles (4-5, 4-1 road) at Green Bay Packers (5-3, 3-1 home)

When: Sunday, 1:00pm ET
Open: Green Bay -10
Current: Green Bay -2.5

Analysis: How much is Pro Bowl quarterback Aaron Rodgers worth to the point spread? In this case, it appears to be 7.5 points, as the line for Sunday’s clash between Philly and Green Bay plummeted from -10 to -2.5 following Rodgers’ injury on Monday night against the Chicago Bears. Backup signal-caller Seneca Wallace will get the start following a week of preparation with the first-team offense, but Green Bay enters this game on short rest to face a Philly squad that has covered the number in four of their last five road games. The good news for Packers fans is that teams tend to perform at a higher level in the wake of a big injury to a marquee player (see: Seattle at St. Louis in Week 8), but almost always fall flat the following week. This is a tough game to bet based on the Eagles’ erratic play so far in 2013.

Trends: Philadelphia is 7-17-1 ATS over their last 25 games overall while Green Bay is 17-5 ATS over their last 22 games following a straight-up loss.

St. Louis Rams (3-6, 1-3 road) at Indianapolis Colts (6-2, 3-1 home)

When: Sunday, 1:00pm ET
Open: Indianapolis -11
Current: Indianapolis -9.5

Andrew LuckThe early money is fading Andrew Luck and the red-hot Colts.

Analysis: The early money is backing a Rams team that is 8-2 ATS over their last ten games against teams with a winning record, most likely due to the fact that Indy is coming off an extremely physical come-from-behind road win over division rival Houston. The problem with the Rams, however, is that they are averaging just 15.0 points per game over their last three contests with seven turnovers, are just 1-3 SU on the road this season and are 2-8 ATS over their last ten games played on fieldturf. The Colts have won five of their last six games and are 3-1 at home this season with wins over Seattle and Denver, so how do we play against that type of quality production?

Trends: St. Louis is 7-3 ATS over their last ten road games while Indianapolis is 8-2 ATS over their last ten home games.

Miami Dolphins (4-4, 2-2 road) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-8, 0-4 home)

When: Monday, 8:30pm ET
Open: Miami -3.5
Current: Miami -2.5

Analysis: I performed some investigative journalism Tuesday morning and confirmed that the NFL does, in fact, still plan to televise this game between two of the most dysfunctional franchises in recent memory. So sit back and relax on Monday night as the burning row home of a locker room known as the Miami Dolphins travels to Tampa Bay to play a Buccaneers team that has gotten so good at losing they’ve practically turned it into a form of art. What’s interesting here is that the early money is backing a winless Tampa team to the point of driving the line through the key number of 3 down to Miami -2.5. Note that the Dolphins are 1-4 ATS over their last five games overall while Tampa Bay is 1-5 ATS over their last six games overall. This has lowlight reel written all over it.

Trends: Miami is 0-4 ATS over their last four Monday night games while Tampa Bay is 0-4-2 ATS over their last six Monday night games.

Seattle Seahawks (8-1, 4-1 road) at Atlanta Falcons (2-6, 2-2 home)

When: Sunday, 1:00pm ET
Open: Seattle -7
Current: Seattle -6

Russell WilsonWill Russell Wilson and the Seahawks get their revenge in Atlanta on Sunday?

Analysis: Big revenge spot here for the Seahawks, who fell 30-28 at Atlanta last January during the NFC Divisional Round. But it’s tough to lay this many points with a Seahawks team that has to travel across the country with one of the worst offensive lines in football. The Seahawks are averaging just 23.7 points per game over their last four outings and quarterback Russell Wilson has been running for his life trying to keep this team atop the NFC West. Meanwhile, Atlanta has dropped five of six and has scored only 23 points with eight turnovers over their last two outings. Note that Seattle is 13-5 ATS over their last 18 games following a straight-up win while Atlanta is just 2-5 ATS over their last seven home games.

Trends: Seattle is 7-2 ATS over their last nine road games while Atlanta is 2-6 ATS over their last eight games following an ATS loss.

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-8, 0-4 road) at Tennessee Titans (4-4, 2-2 home)

When: 1:00pm ET
Open: Tennessee -13.5
Current: Tennessee -12.5

Analysis: The books are asking us to lay 12.5 points on a team that is averaging just 18.7 points per game over their last four outings. Smells fishy right up until you realize that the dog is a Jacksonville team that is averaging a grand total of just 10.75 points per game on the season in 2013. Look, there is absolutely no way you can bet on a team like the Jaguars, even if the situation says you should. But laying close to two touchdowns with Jake Locker is asking for trouble. Jacksonville is 1-8 ATS over their last nine games overall while Tennessee is 8-3 ATS over their last 11 meetings against teams with a losing record. This is a pass for us.

Trends: Jacksonville is 1-6 ATS over their last seven road games while Tennessee is 6-2-1 ATS over their last nine games overall.

Cincinnati Bengals (6-3, 2-3 road) at Baltimore Ravens (3-5, 2-1 home)

When: Sunday, 1:00pm ET
Open: Cincinnati -2
Current: Cincinnati -1.5

Analysis: Easy line move to predict, as every pro bettor in the world knows to jump on John Harbaugh and the Ravens when they assume the role of home underdog. But to be honest with you, I’m not feeling it with Baltimore this week. The Ravens were in a great spot last Sunday coming off the bye playing an opponent in Cleveland who they had beaten 11 straight times. In addition, the Ravens needed that win to get back in the hunt for the AFC North. The result? A 24-18 loss it which Baltimore looked flat and uninspired. Note that the Bengals are 4-0 ATS over their last four games following a straight-up loss and enter this showdown on extra rest, but will be without stalwart defensive tackle Geno Atkins. Playing Cincinnati looks like a sucker bet, but it’s tough to get behind a Baltimore team that has dropped three straight and four of their last five.

Trends: Cincinnati is 12-5-1 ATS over their last 18 games overall while Baltimore is 1-4 ATS over their last five games overall.

Carolina Panthers (5-3, 2-2 road) at San Francisco 49ers (6-2, 3-1 home)

When: Sunday, 4:05pm ET
Open: San Francisco -6.5
Current: San Francisco -6

Analysis: The Panthers are streaking with one of the nastiest defenses in the league. But it’s worth noting that Carolina’s four-game win streak has come against teams who are a combined 6-27 on the season with per game scoring averages of 23.3 (Minnesota), 20.7 (St. Louis), 15.5 (Tampa Bay) and 22.0 (Atlanta). Meanwhile, San Francisco has been streaking in their own right, with five straight victories coming by an average of 22.6 points per game with a defense that has permitted an average of just 12.2 points per game during said win streak. The Panthers just got done hammering one of the final nails into division rival Atlanta’s coffin, while the Niners are rested coming off their bye week. Carolina has the chance to make a big statement on Sunday, but we believe it will be San Francisco that comes away with the win and cover.

Trends: Carolina is 8-3 ATS over their last 11 road games while San Francisco is 18-7-1 ATS over their last 26 home games.


Washington Redskins (3-5, 1-3 road) at Minnesota Vikings (1-7, 1-3 home)

When: Thursday, 8:30pm ET
Open: Washington -2.5
Current: Washington -2.5

Buffalo Bills (3-6, 1-3 road) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-6, 1-2 home)

When: Sunday, 1:00pm ET
Open: Pittsburgh -3 (-120)
Current: Pittsburgh -3 (-120)

Oakland Raiders (3-5, 0-3 road) at New York Giants (2-6, 1-2 home)

When: Sunday, 1:00pm ET
Open: Off the board
Current: Off the board

Detroit Lions (5-3, 2-2 road) at Chicago Bears (5-3, 3-1 home)

When: 1:00pm ET
Open: Detroit -2.5
Current: Off the board

Houston Texans (2-6, 1-3 road) at Arizona Cardinals (4-4, 3-1 home)

When: Sunday, 4:25pm ET
Open: Arizona -2.5
Current: Arizona -2.5 (-120)

Denver Broncos (7-1, 2-1 road) at San Diego Chargers (4-4, 2-1 home)

When: Sunday, 4:25pm ET
Open: Denver -7
Current: Denver -7

Dallas Cowboys (5-4, 1-3 road) at New Orleans Saints (6-2, 4-0 home)

When: Sunday, 8:30pm ET
Open: New Orleans -7
Current: New Orleans -7

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