Week 11 early line moves

With the abundance of injuries that were sustained at the quarterback position in Week 10, take note that Vegas has yet to post lines for the Philadelphia-Washington, Baltimore-Pittsburgh and Chicago-San Francisco games. Expect these numbers to hit the board when the books have a better idea of which guys will be under center this weekend.

CLICK HERE to check out all of the current lines.

Miami Dolphins (4-5, 2-3 road) at Buffalo Bills (3-6, 1-2)

When: Thursday, 8:20pm ET
Open: Pick
Current: Buffalo -1.5

Analysis: Miami is 6-2 ATS over their last eight games against the Bills, but the early money is backing the home team in this one. Part of that cash flow is likely attributable to the fact that the warm-weather Dolphins have to travel north on a short week to face a divisional foe in a primetime game with the temperature expected to be at 35 degrees for kickoff. That was a mouthful. Take note that Buffalo is 1-8-1 ATS over their last ten games following an ATS win, while Miami is 19-7-1 ATS over their last 27 road games.

Cleveland Browns (2-7, 0-4 road) at Dallas Cowboys (4-5, 1-2 home)

When: Sunday, 1:00pm ET
Open: Dallas -8
Current: Dallas -7.5

Tony RomoUS PRESSWIRENow that Romo and the Cowboys are back in the hunt, can they avoid a letdown game against Cleveland?

Analysis: The Cowboys’ Week 10 win over Philadelphia, coupled with the Giants’ loss at Cincinnati, has Dallas right back in the hunt for the divisional title. Since things seem to be breaking the Cowboys’ way, it’s only natural to assume the team lays an egg in this one. The Browns are coming off the bye and are 8-2-1 ATS over their last 11 games following a straight-up loss, while the Cowboys are 0-6 ATS over their last six home games.

Arizona Cardinals (4-5, 1-3 road) at Atlanta Falcons (8-1, 4-0 home)

When: Sunday, 1:00pm ET
Open: Atlanta -10.5
Current: Atlanta -9.5

Analysis: The bye week couldn’t have come at a better time for the Cardinals, who are 0-4-1 ATS during their current five-game losing streak. Ken Whisenhunt’s crew travels to Atlanta this weekend to take on a pissed off Falcons team that was just knocked from the ranks of the unbeaten by hated-rival New Orleans. The Cardinals are 2-5 ATS over their last seven games against the Falcons, while Atlanta is 21-6 ATS over their last 27 games following a straight-up loss.

Green Bay Packers (6-3, 2-2 road) at Detroit Lions (4-5, 2-1 home)

When: Sunday, 1:00pm ET
Open: Green Bay -3
Current: Green Bay -3.5

Analysis: The early money knew this game wouldn’t be sitting on the key number of 3 for long, so bettors pounced to get the best of it before the public could have a say. The Packers are coming off the bye and have gone 3-1 ATS over their current four-game winning streak. In addition, Green Bay is 5-1 ATS over their last six games against the Lions in Detroit. The Lions have been profitable as well over the last few weeks, going 4-1 ATS over their last five games. But take note that Detroit is also 1-6 ATS over their last seven games against divisional opponents.

New Orleans Saints (4-5, 1-3 road) at Oakland Raiders (3-6, 2-2 home)

When: Sunday, 4:05pm ET
Open: New Orleans -6.5
Current: New Orleans -4.5

Analysis: Here come the Saints! After a dreadful start to the season, New Orleans has managed to cover the number in five of the team’s last six games. Drew Brees and the offense are cooking and the defense has limited the opposition to a total of just 40 points over the last two weeks. Not bad! Meanwhile, Oakland has failed to cover the spread in three of their last four outings and is 1-4-1 ATS over their last six home games. So why the early money on New Orleans? That’s a good question. Perhaps the early bettors feel that this was just too many points to lay on the road with a highly suspect defense.

Twitter: @JoeFortenbaugh

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