Week 14 college football betting primer
Happy Thanksgiving to all! Eat plenty, be safe and enjoy a terrific weekend filled with college football and leftovers.
Last week: 3-3
Season: 32-41 (.438)
Stanford Cardinal (6-5, 2-3 road) at #8 UCLA Bruins (9-2, 3-2 home)
When: Friday, 3:30pm ET
Open: UCLA -4.5
Current: UCLA -5.5 (Westgate)
Stanford in 2014: 5-6 ATS, 8-2 to the UNDER
UCLA in 2014: 4-7 ATS, 6-4-1 to the UNDER
UCLA quarterback Brett Hundley and the Bruins are still alive in the hunt for the college football playoff.
Analysis: Stanford is bowl eligible at 6-5, which is pretty much where the positive analysis stops when talking about the Cardinal. David Shaw’s ultra-conservative crew has dropped two of its last three and three of its last five en route to the worst regular season this school has experienced since 2008. In addition, Stanford is just 1-5 ATS over its last six road games and 1-5 ATS over its last six contests against teams with a winning record. On the other side of the field stand the Bruins, who have won five straight and are still very much alive for the college football playoff. UCLA takes care of business here and then moves on to next week’s PAC-12 championship.
Notable trends: Stanford is 0-6 ATS over its last six games following a win while UCLA is 8-3 ATS over its last 11 games following an against the spread win.
Pick: UCLA (-5.5)
Michigan Wolverines (5-6, 1-3 road) at #6 Ohio State Buckeyes (10-1, 5-1 home)
When: Saturday, 12:00pm ET
Open: Ohio State -20
Current: Ohio State -20 (MGM)
Michigan in 2014: 4-7 ATS, 7-4 to the UNDER
Ohio State in 2014: 7-4 ATS, 9-2 to the OVER
Brady Hoke's final game at Michigan won't go well.
Analysis: Michigan head coach Brady Hoke will be out of a job shortly after this game reaches its conclusion, due in no small part to a sloppy football team that has scored fewer than 20 points in six of its last eight contests while amassing a staggering 24 turnovers through 11 games this season. In fact, the Wolverines haven’t played a single game this year without committing at least one turnover. At No. 6 in the college football playoff rankings, Ohio State needs to not only win this game, but make a serious statement in the process against a Michigan program that is 1-5 ATS over its last six trips to the Horseshoe.
Notable trends: Michigan is 1-6 ATS over its last seven games against Ohio State.
Pick: Ohio State (-20)
#4 Mississippi State Bulldogs (10-1, 3-1 road) at #19 Mississippi Rebels (8-3, 6-1 home)
When: Saturday, 3:30pm ET
Open: Mississippi State -1
Current: Mississippi State -2 (MGM)
Mississippi State in 2014: 7-4 ATS, 6-5 to the UNDER
Mississippi in 2014: 6-4-1 ATS, 8-2 to the UNDER
Analysis: Mississippi was a national story for a hot minute following a 23-17 upset of Alabama, but the Rebels have gone just 3-3 since with losses to LSU (10-7), Auburn (35-31) and Arkansas (30-0). In addition, Ole Miss quarterback Bo Wallace is banged up (ankle) and won’t be anywhere near 100 percent for this season’s Egg Bowl. Despite suffering a 25-20 loss at Alabama two weeks ago, the Bulldogs are still ranked No. 4 in the college football playoff rankings, giving them all the motivation necessary to put a thumping on their in-state rivals. Note that Mississippi State is 5-1 ATS over its last six road dates and 12-4 ATS over its last 16 contests overall, while Mississippi is 0-4 ATS over its last four matchups overall.
Notable trends: Mississippi State is 9-2 ATS over its last 11 conference games while Mississippi is 4-17 ATS over its last 21 games played in the month of November.
Pick: Mississippi State (-2)
Florida Gators (6-4, 3-1 road) at #3 Florida State Seminoles (11-0, 6-0 home)
When: Saturday, 3:30pm ET
Open: Florida State -10.5
Current: Florida State -7.5 (Stations)
Florida in 2014: 5-5 ATS, 8-2 to the OVER
Florida State in 2014: 3-8 ATS, 7-4 to the UNDER
Winston and the Seminoles are looking for their 26th straight victory.
Analysis: Head coach Will Muschamp, whose Gators are 3-8 ATS over their last 11 non-conference games, has already been fired after posting a lackluster 28-20 record in four seasons in Gainesville. But this line is moving quickly in the Gators’ favor for two key reasons: First, Florida State is just 3-8 against the number this season and has a bad habit of playing down to its competition. Second, there’s a line of thinking that Florida gets up for this game in an attempt to send Muschamp out on a high note. I’m calling bullshit on all of that. Saturday night in Tallahassee will likely follow a script we’ve seen many times this season: FSU stumbles early, wakes up in the second half and takes care of business, kicking Muschamp to the curb with nothing but a 1-3 lifetime record against the Seminoles.
Notable trends: The favorite is 13-3 ATS over the last 16 meetings between these two schools.
Pick: Florida State (-7.5)
BYU Cougars (7-4, 3-2 road) at California Golden Bears (5-6, 2-4 home)
When: Saturday, 4:30pm ET
Open: California -3.5
Current: California -4 (Westgate)
BYU in 2014: 4-7 ATS, 7-4 to the OVER
California in 2014: 7-4 ATS, 6-5 to the OVER
Analysis: BYU is headed to the Miami Beach Bowl and has nothing left to play for this season, while this is California’s last shot to get bowl eligible. So you know that both motivation and intensity are on the side of the Golden Bears. Additionally, note that the Cougars are just 2-7 ATS over their last nine games overall and 3-7 ATS over their last ten road games, while the Bears are 5-2 ATS over their last seven outings against teams with a winning record. We love California in this spot.
Notable trends: BYU is 0-4 ATS over its last four games against PAC-12 opposition while California is 4-0 ATS over its last four games after scoring less than 20 points in the previous matchup.
Pick: California (-4)
#15 Auburn Tigers (8-3, 2-2 road) at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide (10-1, 7-0 home)
When: Saturday, 7:45pm ET
Open: Alabama -9.5
Current: Alabama -9 (Wynn)
Auburn in 2014: 4-7 ATS, 6-5 to the OVER
Alabama in 2014: 3-8 ATS, 6-4 to the UNDER
Analysis: Auburn is 1-5 ATS over its last six games overall, but we’re hammering the Crimson Tide in this one based solely on the following video:
Notable trends: The home team is 5-2 ATS over the last seven meetings between these two schools.
Pick: Alabama (-9)
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