Week 5 college football betting primer
While this weekend’s slate of action may be devoid of the high-profile, marquee matchups the country rearranges its collective schedule for, rest assured we found a few gems in the pile worthy of discussion for this week’s column.
Last week: 4-3
Season: 13-10 (.565)
Wake Forest Demon Deacons (2-2, 0-2 road) at Louisville Cardinals (3-1, 2-0 home)
When: Saturday, 3:30pm ET
Open: Louisville -21
Current: Louisville -21 (MGM)
Wake Forest in 2014: 2-2 ATS, 3-1 to the UNDER
Louisville in 2014: 3-1 ATS, 3-1 to the UNDER
Analysis: On one side of the ball you have a Wake Forest team that is averaging just 20.2 points and 262.7 total yards per game this season against the likes of UL-Monroe, Gardner-Webb, Utah State and Army. Additionally, the Demon Deacons are 0-2 on the road in 2014 and 5-14 ATS over their last 19 road games against teams with a winning home record. On the other side of the ball sits a nasty Louisville defense led by former Georgia defensive coordinator Todd Grantham that is surrendering an average of just 15.0 points and 260.2 total yards per game through four contests this year. We envision Wake Forest struggling to move the rock Saturday in Kentucky and it’s also worth noting that Louisville is 21-4 ATS over its last 25 games against ACC opponents and 5-1 ATS over its last six matchups overall.
Notable trends: Wake Forest is 4-10 ATS over its last 14 games against teams with a winning record while Louisville is 5-1 ATS over its last six games played in the month of September.
Pick: Louisville (-21)
Colorado Buffaloes (2-2, 1-0 road) at California Golden Bears (2-1, 1-0 home)
When: Saturday, 4:00pm ET
Open: California -11
Current: California -13 (Wynn)
Colorado in 2014: 2-2 ATS, 3-1 to the UNDER
California in 2014: 3-0 ATS, 2-1 to the OVER
Bears quarterback Jared Goff has taken a big step forward this season.
Analysis: The Buffaloes came through for us last Saturday by covering the number against Hawaii, but we’re reversing course in Week 5 and fading this Colorado team that is 16-37 ATS over its last 53 road games. Colorado’s lone road trip this season came three weeks ago in the form of a 41-38 victory over a Massachusetts team that went 2-22 from 2012-2013. As for California, what a difference a year makes for these guys. Head coach Sonny Dykes went 1-11 in his first year on the job last season, but has this Golden Bears team firing hot through the first three outings of 2014. Cal would be 3-0 and riding sky high if not for dropping a 49-45 heartbreaker at Arizona last Saturday night that ended on a successful Hail Mary for the Wildcats. Expect the Golden Bears to come out hungry in this one and note that this line has already moved from Cal -11 to as high as Cal -14, according to the odds board over at Sportsbook Review.com.
Notable trends: Colorado is 8-18 ATS over its last 26 games against teams with a winning record.
Pick: California (-13)
South Alabama Jaguars (1-2, 1-0 road) at Idaho Vandals (0-3, 0-1 home)
When: Saturday, 5:00pm ET
Open: South Alabama -7
Current: South Alabama -6 (MGM)
South Alabama in 2014: 1-2 ATS, 3-0 to the UNDER
Idaho in 2014: 1-2 ATS, 3-0 to the OVER
Analysis: We’re calling this the “Hold Your Nose” special of the week because we are likely to witness some really lousy football in our attempt to cover the number in this one. Bottom line: Moscow, Idaho is one of the most grueling travel destinations in all of college football and we’re hoping that this little nugget plays a vital role in Saturday evening’s outcome, as South Alabama hasn’t made a lengthy travel date since 2012 when the team fell 23-7 at Hawaii. In the interest of full disclosure, you’re better off not watching this one. Seriously, I’m not even sure there will be a camera crew in attendance.
Notable trends: South Alabama is 1-5 ATS over its last six games following a loss of 20 or more points.
Pick: Idaho (+6)
Missouri Tigers (3-1, 1-0 road) at #13 South Carolina Gamecocks (3-1, 2-1 home)
When: Saturday, 7:00pm ET
Open: South Carolina -5.5
Current: South Carolina -5.5 (Wynn)
Missouri in 2014: 2-2 ATS, 2-2 to the OVER
South Carolina in 2014: 1-3 ATS, 3-1 to the OVER
Analysis: Missouri, the defending SEC East Champions, is coming off a 31-27 loss to Indiana, a football team that has won just 32.5 percent of its games with one winning season since 1996. So this week goes one of two ways: Either the Tigers have a great week of practice and bounce back strong, or the wheels fall off the bus completely while Missouri fades back into the recesses of irrelevance. We’re banking on the latter, as South Carolina followed up the school’s 38-35 upset win over Georgia by grinding it down to the wire last Saturday at lowly Vanderbilt. Head coach Steve Spurrier will find a way to get a much better effort out of his squad this weekend.
Notable trends: South Carolina is 4-1 ATS over its last five games following an against the spread loss.
Pick: South Carolina (-5.5)
Duke Blue Devils (4-0, 1-0 road) at Miami Hurricanes (2-2, 2-0 home)
When: Saturday, 7:30pm ET
Open: Miami -5
Current: Miami -7 (LVH)
Duke in 2014: 2-1-1 ATS, 2-1 to the UNDER
Miami in 2014: 1-3 ATS, 2-2 to the OVER
Few are paying attention to what HC David Cutcliffe has done with Duke.
Analysis: Wake up and smell the Blue Devils because this team has been cooking with gas since 2013 under head coach David Cutcliffe (14-4 straight-up). Duke is 10-2-1 ATS over its last 13 games overall, 10-4 ATS over its last 14 matchups in the month of September and 6-2 ATS over its last eight road dates. In addition, through four games this season, the Blue Devils are averaging an astounding 43.5 points and 491.7 total yards per game behind quarterback Anthony Boone, who is 14-2 straight-up as a starter. Miami got steamrolled during last Saturday’s second half at Nebraska, is 1-4 ATS over its last five home games and 2-10 ATS over its last 12 games overall. We’ll be playing Duke on the moneyline as well in this one.
Notable trends: Duke is 7-1 ATS over its last eight conference games while Miami is 1-7 ATS over its last eight conference games.
Pick: Duke (+7)
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