Week 8 college football betting primer
Sorry, boys and girls, but the Saturday night marquee matchup between #5 Florida State and #3 Clemson didn’t make the cut this week. The Seminoles enter their biggest game of the season on an extra week of rest, which has to be the primary reason why Florida State is a 3-point road favorite for this one. That’s an interesting line, to say the least. In fact, I was willing to back Clemson right up until I saw that number. So suffice it to say, we’re passing on this one.
Last week: 4-2
Season: 27-13 (.675)
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Central Florida Knights (4-1, 3-0 road) at #8 Louisville Cardinals (6-0, 4-0 home)
When: Friday, 8:00pm ET
Open: Louisville -13
Current: Louisville -13
Central Florida in 2013: 4-1 ATS, 4-1 to the UNDER
Louisville in 2013: 3-3 ATS, 5-1 to the UNDER
Analysis: The Knights enter this game on an extra week’s worth of rest after having survived an upset scare at Memphis on October 5, 24-17. This is a disciplined Central Florida team that is currently +7 in the turnover department (only five giveaways on the season) with a quarterback in Blake Bortles who currently boasts a QB rating of 160.4 (64.8 percent completion percentage). Despite their flashy No. 8 ranking, Louisville hasn’t beaten anybody of substance this season, with last week’s 24-10 lackluster win over Rutgers causing some folks to raise their eyebrows and question how good this team really is. Note that Central Florida is 14-5 ATS over their last 19 road games against teams with a winning home record. Also note that Louisville wide receiver DeVante Parker (leads team with six TD receptions) is battling a shoulder injury and may not be ready to go come Friday.
Notable Trends: Central Florida is 5-1 ATS over their last six Friday games while Louisville is 4-10 ATS over their last 14 Friday games.
Pick: Central Florida (+13)
Iowa Hawkeyes (4-2, 2-0 road) at #4 Ohio State Buckeyes (6-0, 4-0 home)
When: Saturday, 3:30pm ET
Open: Ohio State -17
Current: Ohio State -17
Iowa in 2013: 3-3 ATS, 5-1 to the OVER
Ohio State in 2013: 4-1-1 ATS, 4-2 to the OVER
US PRESSWIREThe Buckeyes have emerged victorious in four straight games against Iowa, winning by an average of 13.0 points per game.
Analysis: Both teams enter this game on extra rest, but that certainly does not put these two schools on equal footing. The Buckeyes have failed to cover the number just twice in their last ten outings (one push), are 4-0 ATS over their last four games following a bye week and are beating their opponents by an average of 27.6 points per game this season. Iowa, on the other hand, is just 1-6 ATS over their last seven games as a road dog and 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to Columbus. Also note that the favorite in this series is 8-1-1 ATS over the last ten meetings.
Notable Trends: Iowa is 4-12 ATS over their last 16 road games while Ohio State is 8-0-1 ATS over their last nine games following a straight-up win.
Pick: Ohio State (-17)
#9 UCLA Bruins (5-0, 2-0 road) at #13 Stanford Cardinal (5-1, 3-0 home)
When: Saturday, 3:30pm ET
Open: Stanford -7
Current: Stanford -6
UCLA in 2013: 5-0 ATS, 3-2 to the UNDER
Stanford in 2013: 2-4 ATS, 4-2 to the OVER
Analysis: The Bruins are out for big time revenge in this one after having suffered defeat at the hands of the Cardinal twice in 2012, the second of which came by way of a 27-24 fourth quarter Stanford comeback in the Pac-12 championship game. This is a red hot UCLA team that has covered the number in every game this season, while Stanford is reeling after last week’s 27-21 loss at Utah. In addition, Stanford is just 1-6 ATS over their last seven games as a home favorite, while UCLA is 5-1 ATS over their last six games as an underdog. Bruins quarterback Brett Hundley has a chance to land near the top of the Heisman leader board with a winning outing on Saturday.
Notable Trends: UCLA is 6-2 ATS over their last eight games against teams with a winning record while Stanford is 1-4 ATS over their last five games following a straight-up loss.
Pick: UCLA (+6)
BYU Cougars (4-2, 1-1 road) at Houston Cougars (5-0, 2-0 home)
When: Saturday, 3:30pm ET
Open: BYU -10
Current: BYU -9
BYU in 2013: 4-2 ATS, 4-2 to the UNDER
Houston in 2013: 5-0 ATS, 3-2 to the UNDER
Analysis: Houston’s unblemished 5-0 record looks less impressive when you consider the fact that the teams the Cougars have defeated this season are a combined 10-20. Meanwhile, BYU is coming off back-to-back victories over Utah State and Georgia Tech in addition to their Week 2 plastering of Texas, 40-21. BYU is 11-2 ATS over their last 13 road games against teams with a winning home record and is surrendering an average of just 17.3 points per game this season (15th in the nation). This is a daunting point spread to lay with a road favorite, but we believe that this will be an unsuccessful step up in class for Houston.
Notable Trends: BYU is 10-3 ATS over their last 13 road games while Houston is 1-4 ATS over their last five games against teams with a winning record.
Pick: BYU (-9)
UNLV Rebels (4-2, 1-1 road) at #17 Fresno State Bulldogs (5-0, 3-0 home)
When: Saturday, 10:00pm ET
Open: Fresno State -20.5
Current: Fresno State -24
UNLV in 2013: 3-3 ATS, 5-1 to the OVER
Fresno State in 2013: 1-4 ATS, 4-1 to the OVER
Quarterback Derek Carr has thrown 19 touchdown passes with only four interceptions through five games.
Analysis: Las Vegas is abuzz over a Rebels team that has won four consecutive games for the first time in God knows how long. But for those who watched the UNLV game on Saturday night, you saw firsthand that this team is still unfamiliar with how to handle success. Cruising along up 36-17 in the fourth quarter, the Rebels got cocky, pissed away the lead and trailed 37-36 until kicker Nolan Kohorst bailed the team out with a 44-yard game-winner as time expired. Yeah, the Rebels are 4-2, but this is the same school that is 10-39-4 ATS over their last 53 road contests. Fresno State is undefeated, enters this game on an extra week of rest and is scoring an average of 47.4 points per game this season (fifth in the nation). This matchup has “Blowout” written all over it.
Notable Trends: UNLV is 6-23-2 ATS over their last 31 road games agai nst teams with a winning home record while Fresno State is 8-3 ATS over their last 11 conference games.
Pick: Fresno State (-24)
Oregon State Beavers (5-1, 3-0 road) at California Golden Bears (1-5, 1-3 home)
When: Saturday, 10:30pm ET
Open: Oregon State -11
Current: Oregon State -10
Oregon State in 2013: 3-3 ATS, 5-1 to the OVER
California in 2013: 0-6 ATS, 3-2-1 to the OVER
Analysis: October 13, 2012. That’s the last time the California Golden Bears covered a point spread. As unbelievable as it may seem, Cal has failed to cover the number in 11 straight contests and is just 5-16 ATS over their last 21 games against teams with a winning record. The Golden Bears are failing in all phases of the game, highlighted by a defense that is surrendering an average of 43.7 points per outing (125th in the nation). Oregon State got off to a rocky start in 2013 with a 49-46 upset loss to Eastern Washington, but has come roaring back to rip off five straight wins capped by last Saturday’s 52-24 dismantling of Washington State. The Beavers are 5-1 ATS over their last six games against the Golden Bears and we’re betting big on that trend continuing this weekend.
Notable Trends: Oregon State is 20-9-1 ATS over their last 30 road games while California is 0-8 ATS over their last eight conference games.
Pick: Oregon State (-10)
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