Week 8 Las Vegas market report

Since 1998, double-digit road favorites are 30-47-2 (.389) against the spread. We examined this trend back in August and finally have a couple games that fall underneath its umbrella. As of Tuesday afternoon, the Week 8 board is offering Green Bay as a 10-point road favorite at Minnesota and Seattle as a 10.5-point road favorite at Seattle.

More on those games in a bit.

Week 8 bye: Baltimore, Chicago, Houston, Indianapolis, San Diego, Tennessee


Home teams: 58-46-3 (.557)
Favorites: 55-49-3 (.528)
Home dogs: 21-18 (.538)
Home favorites: 37-28-3 (.569)
Overs: 58-49 (.542)

CLICK HERE to check out all of the current Week 8 lines.

Note: All lines courtesy of the LVH sports book in Las Vegas.

Green Bay Packers (4-2, 1-2 road) at Minnesota Vikings (1-5, 1-2 home)

When: Sunday, 8:30pm ET
Open: Green Bay -6
Current: Green Bay -10

Aaron RodgersAaron Rodgers has shredded the Vikings in his last four trips to Minnesota.

Analysis: Credit a dreadful Monday night performance by the Vikings for the 4-point swing, as this game opened Green Bay -6 on Sunday before Josh Freeman and Minnesota even took the field the following evening. The Packers are 25-9 ATS over their last 34 games against the NFC North and 4-1 ATS over their last five games overall. The Vikings, meanwhile, have covered the number in just two of their last seven contests and are 1-6 ATS over their last seven games when scoring 15 or fewer points in their previous contest. Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ last four trips to Minnesota have resulted in a completion percentage of 72.5 percent with 1,385 yards, 13 touchdowns and only one interception (QB rating: 132.7).

Trends: Green Bay is 5-2 ATS over the last seven meetings between these two teams.

San Francisco 49ers (5-2, 2-1 road) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-7, 0-3 home)

When: Sunday, 1:00pm ET (London)
Open: San Francisco -15.5
Current: San Francisco -16.5

Analysis: Since dropping back-to-back matchups against Seattle and Indianapolis, respectively, the 49ers have gone white hot, winning four straight contests by an average of 20.2 points per game. Give credit to a defensive unit that went from surrendering 28.0 points per game over the first three weeks of the season to 12.75 points per game over the last four. As for Jacksonville, the Jags have scored a grand total of just 76 points on the season and have been outscored by an average of 20.8 points per game through seven contests in 2013. The Jaguars have covered the number just once in their last eight outings, while the 49ers are 4-0 ATS over their last four.

Trends: San Francisco is 22-7-1 ATS over their last 30 games played on grass while Jacksonville is 1-5 ATS over their last six games played on grass.

Carolina Panthers (3-3, 1-2 road) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-6, 0-3 home)

When: Thursday, 8:30pm ET
Open: Carolina -7
Current: Carolina -6.5

Analysis: A tale of two teams headed in opposite directions, as the Carolina Panthers—winners of two straight and three of their last four—travel to Tampa Bay for a Thursday night divisional showdown with a Buccaneers team that is just 10-27-1 ATS over their last 38 home games. Take note that since 2012 and while excluding Week 1, home teams are just 9-14 ATS on Thursday nights, with a 1-5 ATS record for 2013. This is a lot of points to lay with a Carolina team working on a short week with three wins coming against teams who are a combined 5-15 on the season, but how do you back Greg Schiano’s Buccaneers knowing that three of the organization’s last four losses have been by eight or more points?

Trends: The favorite is 9-2 ATS over the last 11 meetings between these two teams.

Buffalo Bills (3-4, 1-2 road) at New Orleans Saints (5-1, 3-0 home)

When: Sunday, 1:00pm ET
Open: New Orleans -12.5
Current: New Orleans -12

Drew BreesICONBrees and the Saints are 5-0 ATS over their last five games coming off a bye week.

Analysis: This is a terrible spot for the Bills, who are on the second leg of a back-to-back road stretch that started with a divisional opponent (at Miami) and ends with a non-conference powerhouse. If you want to throw some more fuel on the fire, take note that the Saints are 5-0 ATS over their last five games coming off the bye week. And let’s not forget the fact that New Orleans has to be livid with how they blew that Week 6 game at New England. Also of note is the trend demonstrating that Buffalo is just 6-19-1 ATS over their last 26 games following a straight-up win.

Trends: Buffalo is 1-4 ATS over their last five road games while New Orleans is 19-7 ATS over their last 26 home games.

Washington Redskins (2-4, 1-2 road) at Denver Broncos (6-1, 4-0 home)

When: Sunday, 4:25pm ET
Open: Denver -13.5
Current: Denver -13

Analysis: Another week, another monstrous line favoring Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos, who are just 1-3-1 ATS over their last five games. But it’s worth noting that not only is Denver coming off their first loss of the season, but the team heads to the bye week following this Sunday’s matchup. And when you consider the fact that the 6-1 Broncos are currently trailing the 7-0 Chiefs in the AFC West standings, you have to figure we’ll get a solid effort out of John Fox’s team in this one. However, this is still a really big line and you have to remember that Washington is 14-6 ATS over their last 20 games against teams with a winning record.

Trends: Washington is 7-3 ATS over their last ten games following a straight-up win while Denver is 3-11 ATS over their last 14 games played during the month of October.

Seattle Seahawks (6-1, 3-1 road) at St. Louis Rams (3-4, 2-1 home)

When: Monday, 8:30pm ET
Open: Seattle -10
Current: Seattle -10.5

Analysis: You’ve already taken note of the above trend that favors double-digit home dogs, but there are other variables we have to account for in this game. For starters, Seattle enters Week 8 on ten days of rest following their Thursday night win at Arizona. In addition, the Rams head to Sunday without starting quarterback Sam Bradford, who tore his ACL at Carolina in Week 7 and is done for the season. That means backup Kellen Clemens will make his first start since 2011 this weekend. Also of note is the fact that St. Louis is 0-4 ATS over their last four Monday night games while Seattle is 7-1 ATS over their last eight road games.

Trends: Seattle is 9-3 ATS over the last 12 meetings between these two teams.


Cleveland Browns (3-4, 1-2 road) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-0, 4-0 home)

When: Sunday, 1:00pm ET
Open: Kansas City -7
Current: Kansas City -7

New York Giants (1-6, 0-4 road) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-4, 0-3 home)

When: Sunday, 1:00pm ET
Open: Philadelphia -6
Current: Philadelphia -6

Miami Dolphins (3-3, 2-1 road) at New England Patriots (5-2, 3-0 home)

When: Sunday, 1:00pm ET
Open: New England -6.5
Current: New England -6.5

Dallas Cowboys (4-3, 1-2 road) at Detroit Lions (4-3, 2-1 home)

When: Sunday, 1:00pm ET
Open: Detroit -3
Current: Detroit -3 (-120)

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-4, 1-2 road) at Oakland Raiders (2-4, 2-1 home)

When: Sunday, 4:05pm ET
Open: Pittsburgh -3
Current: Pittsburgh -3 (even)

New York Jets (4-3, 1-2 road) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-2, 3-0 home)

When: Sunday, 4:05pm ET
Open: Cincinnati -6.5
Current: Cincinnati -6.5

Atlanta Falcons (2-4, 0-2 road) at Arizona Cardinals (3-4, 2-1 home)

When: Sunday, 4:25pm ET
Open: Arizona -2.5 (-120)
Current: Arizona -2.5

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Upcoming Games

Aug 4th, 8:00 PM

Jacksonville +1.5 -110

Las Vegas -1.5 -110


Aug 11th, 7:00 PM

NY Giants

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Aug 11th, 7:30 PM