Your 2012 playbook to betting the draft

No long-winded introductions, no bull crap. We don’t have time for that today.

Here’s everything you need to know about turning a profit on the 2012 NFL draft. I’ve broken our plays down into three categories: Those I love get three stars, those I feel we have an edge on get one star. The others fall in between.

Best of luck to you all.

3 STARS

How many Big 12 players will be drafted in the first round?

Line: 4
Odds: Over -105, Under -125
Pick: OVER
Where to bet it: Sportsbook.ag

Reason: RG3, Justin Blackmon and Ryan Tannehill are locks for the first round, while Baylor wide receiver Kendall Wright is almost certain to hear his name called Thursday night as well. That gives us four, which makes the worst-case scenario a push. Should a team trade back into the first round for Oklahoma State quarterback Brandon Weeden, that would give us a winning ticket.

Which player will be drafted first: Michael Brockers vs. Courtney Upshaw

Odds: Brockers +120, Upshaw -160
Pick: Brockers
Where to bet it: BetOnline.com

Reason: Brockers made more pre-draft visits (16) than any other player and shouldn’t fall past Philadelphia at 15. Meanwhile, Upshaw’s stock has been falling and most in the industry don’t see him getting drafted earlier than the New York Jets at No. 16. The value here is too good to pass up, as this is a perfect example of why it’s so important to shop for the best lines. Over at Sportsbook.ag, the same prop offers Brockers at -225 with Upshaw at +175.

How many wide receivers will be drafted in the first round?

Line: 3.5
Odds: Over -300, Under +220
Pick: OVER
Where to bet it: BetOnline.com

Reason: Justin Blackmon and Michael Floyd are locks, while Kendall Wright (as mentioned above) is very close to being a sure thing. That gives us three and I’m predicting that Georgia Tech’s Stephen Hill will slip into the first round as well. We could also cash this ticket with LSU’s Rueben Randle, who some view as a possible first round target for the Houston Texans at No. 26. The juice is high, but I still like the play.

Over/Under on Bruce Irvin’s draft position

Line: 54.5
Odds: Over +250, Under -350
Pick: UNDER
Where to bet it: 5dimes.com

Reason: This one jumped off the page at me. Irvin is a hot name who many feel will be drafted Thursday night during the first round. Even if that doesn’t happen, there’s no way he’s falling past the 54th pick.

2 STARS

Which player will be drafted first: David DeCastro vs. Dontari Poe

Odds: DeCastro -110, Poe -130
Pick: DeCastro
Where to bet it: BetOnline.com

Reason: Not only is DeCastro the best guard in this year’s draft class, but many view him as a future All-Pro capable of locking down a spot on the offensive line for the next ten years. Poe may have been the hot name coming out of Indianapolis after the Combine, but his game tape raises too many questions. DeCastro is a lock for the top-20 while Poe could drop all the way to the end of the first round. I love the value here.

Over/Under on Melvin Ingram’s draft position

Line: 11.5
Odds: Over -220, Under +170
Pick: OVER
Where to bet it: Sportsbook.ag

Reason: Ingram was linked to Jacksonville at No. 7 from January until the beginning of April, but most have moved off this pick. Based on the multitude of ways the top ten selections could shake down, I’m predicting that Ingram will be on the board for Seattle at No. 12 and could fall as far as the New York Jets at No. 16. The value isn’t great, but I’m confident this one should be a winner.

1 STAR

Over/Under on Luke Kuechly’s draft position

Line: 10.5
Odds: Over +140, Under 170
Pick: OVER
Where to bet it: Sportsbook.ag

Reason: Kuechly is a very solid player, but how often do you see an inside linebacker who doesn’t rush the passer go in the first ten picks? This prop comes down to what Buffalo does at No. 10. I’m betting the Bills go defense, but I think Alabama safety Mark Barron is the pick.

Who will be the third overall pick in the draft?

Odds: Kalil -250, Claiborne +120, Blackmon +500, Reiff +1200
Pick: Claiborne +120
Where to bet it: Bovada.LV

Reason: The Vikings like Matt Kalil, Morris Claiborne and Justin Blackmon, but are still trying to swing a trade in an effort to acquire more draft picks. Claiborne is simply my gut instinct.

How many PAC-12 players will be drafted in the first round?

Line: 5
Odds: Over +115, Under -145
Pick: UNDER
Where to bet it: Sportsbook.ag

Reason: Andrew Luck, Matt Kalil and David DeCastro are locks, but Nick Perry, Jonathan Martin and Coby Fleener are all toss-ups. In order for us to lose this prop, all three would have to hear their names called on Thursday night. This could very well result in a push, but I’m betting the under is more likely to come through than the over.

Over/Under on Brandon Weeden’s draft position

Line: 36.5
Odds: Over +110, Under -140
Pick: UNDER
Where to bet it: Sportsbook.ag

Reason: The possibility—however small—exists that a team could trade back into the first round in an effort to land Weeden, which would give us a winner. If that doesn’t happen, I’m predicting that some organization will want to trade up at the start of Day 2 for the Oklahoma State quarterback’s services. His age is a concern, but the demand for signal-callers in the NFL far outweighs the supply.

Over/Under on how many quarterbacks will be drafted in the first round

Line: 3.5
Odds: Over +160, Under -210
Pick: OVER
Where to bet it: BetOnline.com

Reason: This one comes down to Weeden and since BetOnline is offering the best number in the business, I’m willing to take a shot on the over.

Will Harrison Smith be drafted in the first round?

Odds: Yes -160, No +120
Pick: NO
Where to bet it: BetOnline.com

Reason: Smith has been linked to the Patriots, who currently own two first round selections (27, 31). But knowing how much New England loves to trade back to acquire more picks, I think Smith winds up hearing his name called on Day 2.

Hit me up on Twitter: @JoeFortenbaugh

Upcoming Games

Nov 26th, 12:30 PM

Houston -3 -110

Detroit +3 -110

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Nov 26th, 4:30 PM

Washington +3 +100

Dallas -3 +100

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Nov 26th, 8:20 PM

Baltimore +5 -110

Pittsburgh -5 -110

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Nov 29th, 1:00 PM

Carolina +4 -110

Minnesota -4 -110

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Nov 29th, 1:00 PM

Tennessee +3.5 -105

Indianapolis -3.5 -105

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Nov 29th, 1:00 PM

Arizona -2.5 -105

New England +2.5 -105

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Nov 29th, 1:00 PM

Cleveland -6.5 -110

Jacksonville +6.5 -110

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Nov 29th, 1:00 PM

Miami -7 -120

NY Jets +7 -120

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Nov 29th, 1:00 PM

Las Vegas -3 -110

Atlanta +3 -110

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Nov 29th, 1:00 PM

NY Giants -5.5 -110

Cincinnati +5.5 -110

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Nov 29th, 1:00 PM

LA Chargers +5.5 -110

Buffalo -5.5 -110

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Nov 29th, 4:05 PM

San Francisco +7 -110

LA Rams -7 -110

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Nov 29th, 4:05 PM

New Orleans -5.5 -110

Denver +5.5 -110

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Nov 29th, 4:25 PM

Kansas City -3 +105

Tampa Bay +3 +105

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Nov 29th, 8:20 PM

Chicago +8.5 -110

Green Bay -8.5 -110

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Nov 30th, 8:15 PM

Seattle -5.5 -110

Philadelphia +5.5 -110

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Dec 3rd, 8:20 PM

Dallas +7.5 +100

Baltimore -7.5 +100

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