November 21, 2015 - Michael Freas
DFS Corner: DraftKings Week 11 Plays
Welcome back everyone for another week of NFP DFS Corner. Last weekend was a very low scoring weekend in fantasy, very similar to week 2 earlier this year. The usual studs took a backseat to some lesser known players who lit up the box scores. For anyone who hasn't played DraftKings yet and would like to sign up, you can sign up here. Week 11 Byes: Cleveland Browns, New Orleans Saints, New York Giants, Pittsburgh Steelers Week 11 Weather Report can be found here. It looks like rain will be a factor in Sunday's Cowboys and Dolphins game. Below you will see Vegas's Spreads and O/U Totals for week 11. This is helpful in determining potential game scripts based off Vegas's projections.
High Priced Options:
I will not be paying up for any high priced Quarterbacks this week, but if I did, it would be for Tom Brady.
Mid Priced Options
Cam Netwon ($6,900) vs. Washington Redskins: Cam Newton has been a very consistent cash game QB this year given his rushing upside and touchdown production. He threw for 217 yards last week to go along with one passing and one rushing touchdown. Washington is an average defense, and they are coming off a huge win and have a big road test this week at Carolina. The Panthers are touchdown favorites and this offense runs through Cam Newton. I expect at least 200 passing yards to go along with a touchdown in the air as well as on the ground.
Derek Carr ($6,300) @ Detroit Lions: Derek Carr is quickly ascending into a Franchise caliber QB in his second season with the Raiders. He has a great matchup this week versus the Lions, who are giving up the 4th most points to opposing QBs. Although their defense played well last week, I am not buying it as they have allowed over 16 touchdowns through the air to go along with only 4 interceptions. Carr has been very consistent the past few weeks since their bye, putting up 22.3, 30.3, 32.1 and 23.9 points. He has averaged over 300 yards and 3 touchdowns over those past 4 games.
Low Priced Options:
Matt Stafford ($5,400) vs. Oakland Raiders: While Stafford has been very up and down this year, he has been better as of late. He has reached 3x value 3 out of the past 4 weeks and has a favorable matchup this week versus an Oakland defense that is giving up over 20 points a game to opposing QBs and just lost their second best pass rusher in Aldon Smith for the remainder of the year. The Oakland pass defense ranks 31st in passing yards allowed per game and have given up 16 touchdowns through the air. The Raiders have been solid against the run and the Lions have no running game so I am expecting them to air out in this game which Vegas has the O/U at 48.5.
Mark Sanchez ($5,000) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Sanchez should get the start in this one as Sam Bradford suffered a separated shoulder and a concussion last week vs. the Dolphins. The selection of Sanchez here is simple, he is $5k and should easily reach his value in a game that Vegas is predicting the Eagles to put up 28 points in this game. Sanchez knows this offense and runs it with a faster pace than Bradford does. I don't think there will be much drop of in terms of fantasy. The Bucs are allowing opposing QBs to put up over 19 points against them which would be almost 4x value given Sanchez current price.
Other QB's to target: Marcus Mariota (Tournaments), Brock Osweiler (Tournaments), Case Keenum (Tournaments)
Running Back Plays
High Priced Options
Devonta Freeman ($8,400) vs. Indianapolis Colts: Freeman and the Falcons should be fresh for this matchup as they are coming off a bye. Despite only receiving 12 carries in a very disappointing loss against the 49ers, Freeman was still able to bring in 8 receptions and a receiving touchdown. Regardless, I am expecting the Falcons to come out focused in this game and Freeman is very active in the passing game and a focal point of this offense. The Colts' rush D has allowed the 22nd most rushing yards on the season and the -6.5 game script and O/U of 47.5 provides a high scoring game and a favorable game script for Freeman.
Mid Priced Options:
Adrian Peterson ($6,800) vs. Green Bay Packers: I had to double check and make sure that Adrian Peterson was actually priced at $6.8k and that it wasn't an error. AP is coming into full stride as he just rushed for 203 yards and 1 touchdown. This is a big divisional matchup versus a struggling Packers team. The Packers rush D is ranked 24th in the NFL allowing over 116 rushing yards per game. The Vikings offense is built around AP and he usually tends to have big games against the Cheese Heads.
Lamar Miller ($6,200) vs. Dallas Cowboys: Despite the emergence of rookie Jay Ajayi, Miller is still the lead back in Miami. Since the firing of Joe Philbin, Miller has been a very consistent play. Since Dan Campbell took over, Miller has had 21.3, 33.1, 14.4, 41.6 and 22.8 points over that span. Over the last 3 games he is averaging over 6 catches a game which presents a very nice floor. Furthermore, he is facing a Dallas defense that is allowing over 108 rushing yards per game and over 30 points per game to opposing fantasy running backs.
DeMarco Murray ($6,000) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Murray was solid again last week rushing for 61 yards and hauling in 6 catches for 58 receiving yards. It looks like Ryan Matthews will not be playing this week, so continue to monitor his status as he goes through the leagues concussion protocol. Without the threat of Matthews, Murray shouldn't have any of his touchdowns vultured away. Despite the Bucs being solid against the run, I recommend this pick due to Murray's high floor given his touches and involvement in the passing game. Sanchez does not really stretch the field so I am expecting a lot of dump offs to Murray.
Low Priced Options
Charcandrick West ($4,500) @ San Diego Chargers: I will have a lot of exposure to West this week as he gets to face off against a Chargers defense that is giving up the most points to opposing running backs. West put up 31.1 points against a very good Broncos defense, albeit missing some key players due to injuries. Nonetheless, he has seen over 25 touches since he took over the job and has posted scores of 31.1, 22.2 and 23.9 points.
Darren McFadden ($5,000) @ Miami Dolphins: The Cowboys offense was completely underwhelming last week in a losing effort to Tampa Bay. Tony Romo is slated to make his return this week and the offense should drastically improve even if Romo is rusty and not 100%. I would imagine they would try to lean on the run and ease Romo back into play. The Cowboys just cut Christine Michael this week leaving no threat to McFadden behind him. His volume should be high and he gets to face a Miami run defense that is ranked 31st in the NFL allowing over 130 rushing yards per game.
Other Running backs to target: Marshawn Lynch ($6,700), Frank Gore ($4,700), and Jonathan Stewart ($4,400), Darren Sproles (Tournaments)
Wide Receiver Plays
High Priced Options
Demaryius Thomas ($7,300) @ Chicago Bears: A lot of people will be fading DT this weekend due to Brock Osweiler making his first NFL start of the season and the struggles of the Broncos' offense. But I don't think Osweiler will be a hindrance to DT whatsoever and might actually provide an upgrade over the weak armed Manning. DT is still a target machine, but the touchdowns haven't been there this year as he has only 1 on the season. I am expecting Brock to get the ball down the field and rely on DT as a security blanket for him.
Calvin Johnson ($7,200) vs Oakland Raiders: Johnson has been hobbled yet again by an ankle injury but should be good to go this weekend. While he is not the dominant Megatron of the past, he is still Matt Stafford's most targeted receiver in a game where a lot of passing is expected. None of the Raiders corners are very good and this presents a very good matchup for both Calvin and Golden Tate.
Middle Priced Options
Michael Crabtree ($6,000) @ Detroit Lions: Crabtree has reinvented himself in Oakland this year. Crabtree has been a target monster on the year despite only getting 5 targets last week. Lets hope his average game last week scares some people away in what will be a very good matchup for the Raiders passing attack. The Lions are giving up over 40 fantasy points to opposing receivers and I am expecting Slay to guard Cooper in this one which should allow Crabtree to garner more targets.
Jordan Matthews ($6,000) vs. Tampa Bay Bucaneers: For most of the reasons I stated above, Sanchez doesnt love to stretch the field veritcally but throws a lot of underneath stuff and short passes over the middle. Sanchez had great chemistry last year with Matthews and was the main reason for his strong finish. Matthews also has a great matchup against struggling nickel cornerback, Alterraun Verner.
Low Priced Options
Danny Amendola ($4,000) vs. Buffalo Bills: Amendola will be a very popular and highly owned pick this week but you must take advantage of his current $4k price for the volume that is expected. Amendola will be replacing Julian Edelman and should immediately see 8 plus targets a game playing out of the slot. He gets a very favorable matchup against struggling corner Nickell Robey as Darby and Gilmore will lock down the outside receivers.
Stevie Johnson ($3,900) vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Stevie Johnson is strictly a value play here as he has become one of River's top targets due to the slew of injuries the Chargers have had on offense. Johnson has the best matchup out of the receivers facing Ron Parker and had 10 targets last game. He should see a lot of targets due to the amount of passes Rivers has been throwing this year so it shouldn't be hard for Johnson to hit 3x value in this matchup.
Other Wide Receivers to target: Mike Evans, Stefon Diggs
Tight End Plays
High Priced Options
Rob Gronkowski ($7,700) vs. Buffalo Bills: Gronk is always a consideration each week given his TD upside. With the Patriots losing Edelman and Dion Lewis, Brady is running out of comfortable/familiar faces. I am expecting to see a bump in Gronk's volume moving forward and with all the price savings at other positions it will not be hard to squeeze him in our lineups.
Mid Priced Options
Antonio Gates ($4,800) vs. Kansas City: As mentioned above, Gates is one of the few remaining targets Rivers has left. Despite not the greatest matchup, Gates is essentially matchup proof. He is averaging over 11 targets, 7 catches and 78 yards per game and is $2,900 less than Gronk
Jacob Tamme ($3,600) vs. Indianapolis Colts: Tamme has been quitely on a nice little stretch since week 5. Going into the bye, he saw a total of 22 targets in the two previous games. His scoring output since week 5 has been 12.1, 29.3, 6.6, 6.2, 17.4 points. The Colts are giving up the 5th most points to tight ends, so Tamme should be able to reach value with low ownership.
Zach Ertz ($3,100) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The injuries up front for the Eagles' offensive line have resulted in the Eagles using more 2 tight end sets recently. Ertz has been exceeding value over the past weeks with performances of 13.8, 9.4, 11.3, 8.3 and 11 points. He had a touchdown called back last week, and we all remember how much Mark Sanchez utilized him last year down the stretch and ended the season with a 15 catch effort against Washington. As stated before, Sanchez throws a lot of short and intermediate passes so Ertz is a good punt TE with plenty of upside.
Other Tight Ends to target: Travis Kelce ($4,700)
Defenses to Target
Seattle Seahawks ($4,000) vs. San Francisco 49ers
Carolina Panthers ($3,600) vs. Washington Redskins
New York Jets ($3,000) @ Houston
Kansas City Chiefs ($2,600) vs. San Diego Chargers
Best of luck to everyone this weekend. Make sure to check the Active/Inactive list as the come out tomorrow morning.
|Jaguars||Titans||JAC -3||43||Thurs. Nov 19th||8:25pm|
|Lions||Raiders||OAK -1.5||48||Sun. Nov 22nd||1pm|
|47.5||Sun. Nov 22nd||1pm|
|Texans||Jets||NYJ -2.5||42||Sun. Nov 22nd||1pm|
|Eagles||Buccaneers||PHI -6||45.5||Sun. Nov 22nd||1pm|
|Bears||Broncos||DEN -2||43||Sun. Nov 22nd||1pm|
|Vikings||Packers||MIN -1||45||Sun. Nov 22nd||1pm|
|Ravens||Rams||BAL -1.5||42||Sun. Nov 22nd||1pm|
|Dolphins||Cowboys||DAL -1||47||Sun. Nov 22nd||1pm|
|Panthers||Redskins||CAR -7||45||Sun. Nov 22nd||1pm|
|Cardinals||Bengals||ARI -3||48||Sun. Nov 22nd||4:05pm|
|Seahawks||49ers||SEA -12||40.5||Sun. Nov 22nd||4:25pm|
|Chargers||Chiefs||KC -3||44.5||Sun. Nov 22nd||8:30pm|
|Patriots||Bills||NE -7||48.5||Mon. Nov 23rd||8:30pm|