Playoff Value (08/27/15)
We are weeks away from the start of the NFL season and every team still aspires to reach the Super Bowl. As such, bookmakers have set odds for each squad to make the 2015 NFL playoffs. Below, utilizing our NFL Preview, we look for value in each team reaching the postseason.
To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to make the playoffs and compare that to our projected odds to reach the postseason. For example, Washington is listed at +700 to make the playoffs, in order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Redskins they would need to reach the postseason 12.5% (which is 700/(100+700)) of the time. We project Washington to reach the playoffs 22.0% of the time, meaning there is value in placing a bet at +700 odds.
Implied Chance: 40.8%
Projected Chance: 64.0%
The two time defending NFC South champions can't get any respect. New Orleans, a team with the worst defense in the NFL, and Atlanta, back-to-back losing seasons, have better odds to make the playoffs than the Panthers. Carolina is a top ten team with the second best defense in the league. Cam Newton and the Panthers take the NFC South for a third consecutive season.
Implied Chance: 30.8%
Projected Chance: 51.2%
We have been on the Vikings' bandwagon for a while. Minnesota has a franchise quarterback in Teddy Bridgewater, one of the best running backs of all-time and a defense that ranks in the top ten. The Vikings are the projected 5th seed in the NFC in our most likely playoff.
Implied Chance: 45.5%
Projected Chance: 52.7%
It has been six long years since the Dolphins were in the playoffs. That streak ends this season. Miami is an incredibly balanced team with units that rank in the top ten both offensively and defensively. The cherry on top – the quarterbacks the Dolphins face to start the season are laughable. In the team's first six games the opposing signal caller will be RG3, Blake Bortles, one of the Bills quarterbacks, Ryan Fitzpatrick, rookie Marcus Mariota and Brian Hoyer. There is nothing else that needs to be said.
Additional teams with value: Washington Redskins, Oakland Raiders, Tennessee Titans, Cleveland Browns and Green Bay Packers.
2015 NFL Playoff Odds
|Green Bay Packers||-550||84.6%||86.8%|
|Kansas City Chiefs||+120||45.5%||35.7%|
|New England Patriots||Off The Board||-||71.9%|
|New Orleans Saints||+130||43.5%||24.9%|
|New York Giants||+175||36.4%||31.9%|
|New York Jets||+350||22.2%||11.5%|
|San Diego Chargers||+160||38.5%||27.5%|
|San Francisco 49ers||+400||20.0%||13.1%|
|St. Louis Rams||+250||28.6%||26.1%|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+500||16.7%||11.3%|